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Discussion in 'Rumour Mill' started by Michael Russo, Jul 3, 2017.
Various projections for this year:
I don't know about 50k this year. @TrevP tweeted to Elon for clarification on the first few months to see if they are weekly or monthly. Assuming they're monthly, I'd guess we will see 30-40k this year.
regardless of what the build projections are showing, I am happy that InsideEVs monthly scorecard now has a Model 3 line with "arrives" shown for THIS MONTH!
I summed up all the model X and S figures to arrive at 129664. I guess that would be close to the number of Tesla's sold in the US (didn't include Roadster) by the end of Q2.
What would that 129664 number represent exactly? All built till today? If thought they'd be higher already. This year is not going very quickly, https://techcrunch.com/2017/07/03/tesla-delivered-22k-vehicles-in-q2-47k-in-the-first-half-of-2017/. Just 47K this year, so I suppose if they solve the 100kWh availability, on trakc for 100K. Small increase in Tesla terms over 2016 (83,922). With Model 3 to see 20,000 cars produced in Decemeber, part of the ramp up, they might start December at 15K rate (500 cars daily), and finish the year (if no holiday shutdowns) at 800 daily. At 800, that's 400,000 annualized. 500,000 seems an attainable pace to reach then. Original reservations (barring cancellations) to run out by fall of 2018? Over 2018, 450,000 Model 3's may well be built. Add in 100K S/X again (which would be a fail), and you're well over 500K. Over maybe 130-135K 2017.
It represents All model S and X sold in the US. That is the important number for the EV tax incentive. Remember all model 3s will "probably" be sold in the US in the next year or so. Also only the S and X SOLD in the US in quarters 3 & 4 count towards the number. The total S and X BUILT in Q 3&4 will be around 50K and fewer sold in the US ( about 20K were sold in US in Q 1&2)
Oh, the tax thing.... I don't think they'll make 400,000+ Model 3 next year just for the US. That would be like carving their own gravestone. It's an increasingly global brand. Neglecting especially Europe where the market is still small but well warmed up, would be all but surrendering the European BEV markets.where alternatives might be surfacing in 2018 and certainly 2019. neglect Europe, and you're like Holden in Australia or Dodge/Chevrolet/Chrysler in the US. You're not going to sell any significant number cars abroad. Asians are obcessed about European products and habits more than USA (US are insatiable customers to them, not exctly suppliers of good stuff). if Europeans don't drive Tesla's, why would they? By 2018-19, there will be awesome alternatives to Model 3 and even Model Y being produced right there.
Good point, they need to bring enough 3s to EU quickly... I WANT MINE! hehe
I just found an investor call transcript extract where JB and Elon reported that they were seeing a 10-15% chemistry energy density improvement for the 2170's over what's currently used. Unfortuantely, energy vs car was not specified. Someone also once wrote that supposedly Panasonic will nearly double the maximum C rate. Possibly due to using a steel casing rather than aluminium, better withstanding expansional pressure? If somehow true, this might in fact bring the 75kWh Model S to max out current Superchargers. That would be mega. However, having seen that picture of a Model 3 75kWh carging for over 7 minutes and still only taking 70kW, doesn't make me expect it to be true. Tesla may anyway keep this performance for P version buyers. Also, in terms of discharge, dus a 10C cell would allow for Model 3 to be truly ludicrous in the sense of current S&X, already with 60kWh let alone 75kWh. Still, I don't exactly count on it. Would be awesome also, but again something unlocked only for this who pay a high premium for the circus trick rather than a fixed markup on the production cost.