All Part Of The Plan?

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Dan Detweiler

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#1
It has been very interesting to watch the news and announcements come out over the last few weeks regarding the Model 3...culminating in yesterday's production ramp up announcement. It seems to me that all of this is happening in a pre ordained sequence. The more information that comes out, the more I think that this is all playing out as Elon expected it would.

I think he knew that Tesla was going to be able to produce 500,000 cars by 2018. I think he knew that the battery size would be smaller, more efficient and much cheaper. I think he is playing the negative media and his competitors like a conductor leads an orchestra. Promising one thing, getting people talking and then surpassing those with ever more enticing tidbits of where the company really stands. I am new to Tesla but it is becoming more and more evident to me that Elon Musk is a freaking marketing genius.

I think the company learned many valuable lessons from the Model X role out and Elon and the rest of Tesla Motors is going to make sure that they under promise and over deliver with the Model 3. I know a lot is riding on the success of this car. They have invested huge sums of money on this gamble...but I am not so sure it has been the gamble everyone thought it was. I think Elon knows, and has known for a while the cards he was holding and has played his poker face to perfection.

Of course we are a long way from delivery and anything can happen. I just don't think this is as much guess work, and "wing and a prayer" as was being let on. Bravo Mr. Musk! You just keep doing what you're doing and we will all get to enjoy our cars that much sooner!

Dan
 

TrevP

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#2
I think you're absolutely right Dan.

Elon has had a habit of overestimating the times for his products (Tesla and SpaceX) but he's been learning to pull back expectations when he speaks. Tesla has learned a lot from manufacturing the Model S over the last 4 years and Model X has certainly been a wake-up call they don't care to ever repeat again. This is why I have high expectations that Model 3 will be on time and on budget. Literally the whole company is riding on this car.
 

garsh

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#3
Everything so far has been talk & planning. Remember, Tesla hasn't actually done anything on schedule yet. I hope they can achieve these new goals, but I don't believe they will. But I love the aggressive nature of these changes, and hopefully they will be able to come close.
 

AEDennis

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#4
Agree with @garsh on this.

Guys. I would love to see this and am a big fan.

I continue to expect delivery of our Model 3s in 2018 and I live in California and own two other Tesla vehicles.

Elon has been prone to hyperbole with delivery times and has over promised delivery times too often. Don't set yourself up for a delay disappointment.

Just "model3ownersclub.com" and chill.
 

Gary Moore

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#5
When Marie Antoinette requested money from the French Finance Minister, he replied "If it is possible, madam, the affair is done; if it is impossible, it shall be done!" Unfortunately, the latter prevailed after the point at which she had entered the guillotine height reduction program.
 

Drew

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#6
There was an article on Forbes I read earlier and it gives some good insight to the opposite view. Elon has given no plan to actually get to that number so I am staying in the middle ground on it.
 

Gary Moore

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#7
Hall of Famer Fran Tarkington's plan was to run around with the football to buy more time, and quite often it worked, yet the legal phrase "time is of the essence" has not gone out of style. Tark was sacked hundreds of times in his professional career. The clock is running. Let's hope Jerry Reichow or Homer Jones breaks open. The game is on the line.
 

Curtish8892

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#8
All he needs is the right people that believe it can be done.

If you look at the great things that people have done in history this will not be one of them. It has been done before and just refining it is easier because you have see it done before.

Not discounting the fact it will be very difficult.

My coach use to say "No try, DO!!"

Better to Burn Out Than Fade Away. Hurr!!! (Quote from Highlander)
 

Drew

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#9
Yes and no. When it comes to building that many cars, yes, people will help but you need the machines, capitol, resources to do so. Don't get me wrong I want them to meet those goals but there has been ZERO proof that they can even come close to producing that many cars.
 

HanSolo

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#11
Agree with @garsh on this.

Guys. I would love to see this and am a big fan.

I continue to expect delivery of our Model 3s in 2018 and I live in California and own two other Tesla vehicles.

Elon has been prone to hyperbole with delivery times and has over promised delivery times too often. Don't set yourself up for a delay disappointment.

Just "model3ownersclub.com" and chill.
This is how I feel as well. All of this fanboyish gushing will do nothing but set yourself up to be disappointed should history keep repeating itself with Tesla. As said by others, Tesla has offered us no proof yet as it is still all talk. Anyone can talk up a good game, but the business world is all about whether you deliver or not. While I hate waiting, I am one of those that would much rather wait for it to be done right than to have another disaster at launch. Of course the investors that TSLA are riding on might not be so patient considering the plethora of EV's hitting the market in the 2018-2020 time frame. Ford, Chevy, Nissan, and perhaps even Honda and Toyota will all have their 200+ mile EV's on the market by then. Those guys all know how to mass produce cars and have deep pockets to fund almost anything.
 

AEDennis

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#12
This is how I feel as well. All of this fanboyish gushing will do nothing but set yourself up to be disappointed should history keep repeating itself with Tesla. As said by others, Tesla has offered us no proof yet as it is still all talk. Anyone can talk up a good game, but the business world is all about whether you deliver or not. While I hate waiting, I am one of those that would much rather wait for it to be done right than to have another disaster at launch. Of course the investors that TSLA are riding on might not be so patient considering the plethora of EV's hitting the market in the 2018-2020 time frame. Ford, Chevy, Nissan, and perhaps even Honda and Toyota will all have their 200+ mile EV's on the market by then. Those guys all know how to mass produce cars and have deep pockets to fund almost anything.
Fortunately, none of them have taken Tesla up on the offer to share the supercharger network.

As a result, they may make a 200 mile EV, but unless you're blessed to live in either Coast (with West Coast taking the lead with the West Coast Electric Highway) you're pretty much limited to Tesla to maximize that those 200 miles really mean pretty much cross-country travel at convenient speeds.
 

Badback

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#14
It has been very interesting to watch the news and announcements come out over the last few weeks regarding the Model 3...culminating in yesterday's production ramp up announcement. It seems to me that all of this is happening in a pre ordained sequence. The more information that comes out, the more I think that this is all playing out as Elon expected it would.

I think he knew that Tesla was going to be able to produce 500,000 cars by 2018. I think he knew that the battery size would be smaller, more efficient and much cheaper. I think he is playing the negative media and his competitors like a conductor leads an orchestra. Promising one thing, getting people talking and then surpassing those with ever more enticing tidbits of where the company really stands. I am new to Tesla but it is becoming more and more evident to me that Elon Musk is a freaking marketing genius.

I think the company learned many valuable lessons from the Model X role out and Elon and the rest of Tesla Motors is going to make sure that they under promise and over deliver with the Model 3. I know a lot is riding on the success of this car. They have invested huge sums of money on this gamble...but I am not so sure it has been the gamble everyone thought it was. I think Elon knows, and has known for a while the cards he was holding and has played his poker face to perfection.

Of course we are a long way from delivery and anything can happen. I just don't think this is as much guess work, and "wing and a prayer" as was being let on. Bravo Mr. Musk! You just keep doing what you're doing and we will all get to enjoy our cars that much sooner!

Dan
Under promising and over delivering is exactly the right strategy.

Also, Elon has kept the bean counters out of the engineering department.
 

Gary Moore

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#15
Yes and no. When it comes to building that many cars, yes, people will help but you need the machines, capitol, resources to do so. Don't get me wrong I want them to meet those goals but there has been ZERO proof that they can even come close to producing that many cars.
That's show biz. As playwright Oscar Wilde put it, "There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it." Tesla Motors has longed for preorders, so now what?

When Nikola Tesla himself first electrically illuminated Buffalo, NY, there were no reporters on hand to witness it, because Thomas Edison had said that AC wouldn't work. AC or DC can both be used to distribute power. It turns out that AC is better for distribution of power for running motors and other popular uses. Those reporters back then didn't know that, and competitor Edison was not about to tell them, so similarly for us, reading the news alone won't tell us what inquiring minds want to know.

While Tesla Motors has not demonstrated they can build at such volumes, they conceivably can.

They had a plan to build the Model 3 at a certain volume, and by the looks of it, were designing the vehicle with certain assembly strategies in mind. There are various ways to scale up to meet demand.

How much time does it take to pick and implement a new production plan? As they say in the auto industry, your mileage may vary. Or, as they say in the restaurant business, who's not here and what are we out of?

Various changes require various lead times. By Brooks' Law, it takes about nine months to make a baby, no matter how many staff you get working on it. Let the fun begin.

Production engineers do this stuff all the time, and consultants can help, but too many cooks will spoil the stew.

You have to look at the plan for the originally expected volume, and determine the best way(s) to get to the required scale. Tick, tick, tick.

For the want of a single nail, kingdoms are lost, but the past is unlike the future. In assembly, things have to get into that nice habit of happening right, every time, at full speed, and often day and night and weekends, in various nations, worldwide. (Piece of cake, Marie said royally.)

As with Nikola, if you really know what you are doing, the lights will come on, and the show will go on as it was said in the flyers..