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Autopilot 2.0 OFFICIAL THREAD

Discussion in 'Tech Talk' started by Pinewold, Oct 11, 2016.

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  1. Pinewold

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    Is it Autopilot 2.0 and/or battery 2.0 and/or will it include production intent Model 3? Autopilot 2.0 seems to be the most likely, There are stories about new power walls doubling in battery capacity because they are based on 20170's? If it were Autopilot 2.0, it would make sense to put in Model S and Model S first.

    What do you think?
     
  2. LastGas

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    Whatever I think, it will be wrong. The smart money seems to be on the next generation of Autopilot hardware. What few expect is the ability to retrofit that hardware into existing Tesla Model S/X. New AP hardware will definitely be available on the Model S before the Model 3 so that Tesla can begin fleet learning in advance of the flood of Model 3 deliveries.

    Elon Musk has said that the 100 kWh battery is about as big as they plan to go, but it is possible that there will be a smaller/lighter/cheaper 100 kWh battery.

    Something that would be possible is adding a HUD to the Model S (which nobody expects) before the Model 3 (where most expect it).
     
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    • Rick59

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      How about a Model Y reveal?
       
    • MelindaV

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      A couple other ideas I've seen suggested include Tesla Glass (to go along w @LastGas HUD comment), the Uber-like car share service, charging snake, CCS adaptor and all the variations of future models (minibus, truck, shuttle bus, Y, motorcycle, electric bicycle, Simi, etc)
      The comment about it being a product that is unexpected is interesting. So makes me think not specific to the current ( or in development) vehicles. Maybe a universal charger network they will build out, since no other manufacturer is? No one is expecting Tesla to make sure a Bolt/Leaf/etc can easily drive long distances. That would feel like an Elon sort of decision, but maybe not a moneymaker to come out days before the quarterly earnings announcement.
       
    • Xepherus

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      The general consensus is an announcement related to Autopilot 2.0, but Elon said in his tweet something that stands out, "(Unexpected by most)".
      This can mean a few things, but historically in his smaller announcement tweets, the small details mean a lot.

      Many people don't expect to see a production candidate model 3 until next year, many people don't expect major model S/X improvements before more model 3 news, the list goes on.

      Jen-Hsun Huang has been in talks with Elon Musk for new chipset licensing from NVIDIA utilizing more CUDA cores and their new deep learning architecture, which we may not see for some time in software form, but the hardware as some news outlets have said, is 'ready to be implemented'.

      Tesla is in a very good position to deliver a heavy hit to the other auto manufacturers, they've all announced their electrification plans. Tesla knows their competition and may be confident that the model 3 will beat all of it, what could be better than showing it off right after showing GAP profitability for Q3 and in the same month as their unified Solar Roof/Home Battery system with tesla charger?

      I feel like it will definitely have something to do with autopilot, but i think it will be demonstrated on something we didn't expect to see so soon.
       
    • Xepherus

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      I completely forgot about the ride sharing service, that is very possible.
      And i do remember something about the semi and minibus announcement being "In the 6-8 month window for announcement" in EM Time, so that would make sense aswell.
       
    • Ralph_G

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      I'm voting for the Y release, it wouldn't be a big stretch for Tesla to develop two new vehicles at the same time since the Y will be based on the 3 platform. IMO they can't wait for another year or longer to start production of the Y. Gain customers, market share and brand awareness before the others come to market. Tesla would be offering four long range models with a charging infrastructure, that's a huge head start. Personally, I've never supported a car brand before,Tesla would have to completely derail for me not to support their brand. I've had a 2013 and 2015 S, best ride and service in the world. What gets me is that it seems the other car manufacturers are trying to reinvent the wheel instead of working with Tesla to bring their cars to market faster and to take advantage of the fast charging in place. I get that they want to seem like the creators of their own technology but for heavens sake recognize the importance of the infastructure already in place. I for one would never consider the Bolt as an option because of charging, or lack there of and that holds true for any manufacturer coming to the EV market. Good health all.
       
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      • MelindaV

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        @Ralph_G - your comments on the other car manufacturers brought a question to mind for me...
        Being a long time Tesla owner, how would you feel about the Supercharge network being opened up to non-Tesla vehicles? For instance, if Tesla makes a deal with Mercedes to provide their EV owners access would you have a different reaction if pulling into a full SC and half were MB EVs vs a SC full of Teslas? Would it make a difference if it were a lesser value EV? If it were a $25k Chevy Spark (not that GM would ever want to deal w/Tesla)?
        As a Model ☰ reservation holder, it already feels like the old-timer Tesla owners are resenting the lower priced Teslas 'clogging up the SCs". I suspect it is largely regional, and the outspoken don't necessarily speak for all, but still would not be surprised to hear 18 months from now new Model ☰ owners being harassed at Superchargers, let alone the possible GM-Spark-EV owner ;)
         
      • garsh

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        #9 garsh, Oct 12, 2016
        Last edited: Oct 12, 2016
        While I believe that AutoPilot 2.0 is more likely, this would be my second guess. Early in the development of the 3, there was a lot of talk about Tesla creating the 3 and the Y. Then at some point, Tesla changed its messaging and talked about the 3 only. So I bet that they've been developing the 3 and Y in parallel, but concentrating on getting the 3 ready for manufacturing first. I see the Y as being a fast-follow release.
        Tesla is already in discussions to share the supercharger network with other companies. Just remember that nobody else has a long-range EV to take advantage of the network, so there's no need yet for a deal to be in place. I think there's a good chance of it happening once some of the other manufacturers start building long-range EVs.

        Even though the Bolt has good range, it can't charge fast enough to take advantage of superchargers. It's relegated to be a nice, small (and expensive) commuter car. So we'll need to see what happens with future releases.
         
      • garsh

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        I think it's natural for there to be these issues when there is contention.

        Tesla needs to figure out how to cut the charging times in half, or more. Once charging times are down to the 10-15 minute range (for 80% charge), then it's equivalent to stopping at a gas station. No more need to plan to go eat lunch during your charging stop and leaving your vehicle unattended.
         
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        • Jayc

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          I agree.

          This one says 350kW chargers with cooled cables are on the way.
          http://www.realwire.com/releases/HU...onnector-puts-super-fast-charging-of-electric
          Also as far as I know, last year Tesla started adding cooled cables to their chargers, not sure how scalable the SC infrastructure is in terms of further power output ? Then it is a question of how much harm we do to a battery trying to force this amount of current through it. Going off topic - sorry.
           
        • TrevP

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          Personally I think it's too soon for Model Y.

          I've been told by a source it's related to new advancements with autopilot. Fremont production was halted was last week to setup new AP hardware installation on cars. Similar to what happened when AP 1.0 was rolled out.

          I've been told the new hardware (additional radars) is completely hidden behind fascia and A pillars. Was also told an additional forward facing camera or two are part of the update. Software will be rolled out in the future to enable it just like AP 1.0

          Thats all I have at the moment.
           
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          • MelindaV

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            inside production source or not, my issue with the AP2.0 being the new news is that it's expected. We've all known it's coming sooner or later.
             
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            • Ralph_G

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              "Also as far as I know, last year Tesla started adding cooled cables to their chargers, not sure how scalable the SC infrastructure is in terms of further power output"

              Jayc, I believe Tesla stopped the liquid cooled project. It would be nice if Huber gets it working however that's a lot of juice at once, I'd be wanting to know that it's not going to rapidly degrade the battery pack before I plug into it. The internals of the car charging would all need to be built around those chargers, maybe that's what the other manufacturers are banking on long term.

              Hello Melinda, Some of the other manufacturers are talking about introducing 10-20 new EV models in a very short time frame. IMO for them to address the range anxiety which many non EV owners suffer from, because they don't know, the manufacturers need to address that in order to sell cars. They can either come up with a charger and start building them now in order to meet the demand in the next 5-7 years or they can build off of what already exists. Any non Tesla car charging would either be paid by the manufacturer or as a pay per use. As they build their infrastructure Tesla owners could benefit from their model as well. The charging network would absolutely need to continue expanding but for the interim they have a solution. I'm really interested to see how this evolves over the next 10-15 years, the bonus is we get to see it happening, exciting times ahead.
               
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              • Badback

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                I think that the absolute key is charging time. Can you imagine how many gas stations there would be if it took 30-40 minutes to fuel an ICE car? Maybe government needs to pick up the slack if private enterprise does not step up to the plate (mixed metaphor?). Municipal charging stations can be located on public land, like curb side. I can see paying a small fee over the cost of electricity for the convenience.

                Eventually, every parking lot and structure would need to be populated with chargers.

                As for the discussion about every EV charging at the same time and overloading the grid: If individual owners have solar and a Power Wall like device, they can store a charge during the day and then move the charge to the car after working hours.

                I think that in future these kinds of things will be ubiquitous. Yes the assets will cost quite a bit, but that's the cost of saving the planet. Not like with ICE cars where the real cost to the environment is just ignored.
                 
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                • Jayc

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                  #16 Jayc, Oct 12, 2016
                  Last edited: Oct 12, 2016
                  I used to make the same comparison until someone pointed out that EVs will be home charged most of the time. Certainly in my case I expect 90% of the time my Model 3 will be charged at home. And where there is choice between home/destination charging vs using a super charger, I will avoid superchargers knowing very well it will only do good to the battery.

                  That said however I do agree with you that more EV fast charge points are required and government help would be good.
                   
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                  • Badback

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                    I was really just concerned about congestion at chargers for long range travel.
                     
                  • rogbauche

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                    The Model ☰ owners don't automatically get the free charge at SC. It will be an add on for people who want to pay extra for it. A lot of new owners may opt not to charge at SC or pay as you go. It's going to be a-la-carte for the Model ☰.
                     
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                    • MelindaV

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                      didn't say it would be included for free... paid or not, I still think 'vintage' owners will look down on Model 3 owners using the SC network.
                       
                    • jman

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                      Is it Oct 17 yet ??!!???☹️☹️
                       
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