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Batch Invite Timing

Discussion in 'Reserving, Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Gracilis, Sep 25, 2017.

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  1. Gracilis

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    It seems pretty likely that today will be when they open up the configurator for October deliveries. It seems there was a soft release of information last week with the battery guide, emergency response guide, behind the scenes updates to the configurator, and current Model 3 owners who had be tight lipped in the past started opening up (@RiggerJon and @PTFI you two ROCK!!!!!!!!!!!).

    Add to that the fact that we haven't had anyone report a slipping of their Oct-Dec delivery estimates. Plus I've seen a post or two from people who "claim" to have inside info that today is the day. I think that all adds up to today being the real first day of ordering.

    I know on the Model X they would do the batch invitations on Mondays. They'd give people 7 days to configure then invite the next batch the following Monday.

    Any current X owners remember (or can look back) to see what time of day the configurator opened?

    I'm assuming all the web support people are in PDT and will want to re-test and re-validate all the backend is ready. My guess is we see the e-mails this afternoon/evening (2-5pm PDT).

    I know I'll be checking MyTesla all day today to see if I can't get an order in ASAP...guessing that'll open up before an e-mail goes out.

    Thoughts?
     
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    • danzgator

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      Thanks! There goes the work day!
       
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      • Gracilis

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        Seriously, right!?!?!

        Just remember though, I'm just a lowly pleb that has 0, I repeat 0, inside information. Just reading the tea leaves.

        Timing just seems too perfect to ignore for today. Add on that this will be an excellent bullet point to the end of Q3 prior to the call. This will allow them to give currently delivered numbers as well as currently configured with the bonus statement of "and we're on track to deliver 1000+ cars in October"

        Again though, this may also be just as accurate as the HUD XD
         
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        • SoFlaModel3

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          Where did you hear or see that today was the day?

          As an aside I check MyTesla at least 25 times a day anyway ;)
           
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          • garsh

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            ...and you know you're going to check at least 50 times today, given this information. ;)
             
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            • blavenn

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              I'll up the anty to 75 times :)
               
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              • Gracilis

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                Nothing official...just Tin Foil Hat speculation.

                This was posted on TMC this weekend that is adding to my guess:

                "My source isn't 100% sure on the roll out but told me that Tesla is no longer asking employees not to post on social media and the design studio will roll out in order of reservation/date/location starting this or next Monday. And each week the next batch of reservation holders will be invited and so on..."

                Again, I have 0 inside information...just speculating.

                Also, more fuel for the fire: https://electrek.co/2017/09/25/tesla-rwd-model-s-price-inventory-cars/

                While we knew this was coming, it was pushed with an update to the configurator. All these updates at once is somewhat Tesla's MO.
                 
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                • SoFlaModel3

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                  Thanks!!

                  This is both awesome and terrible at the same time. I’m November - January.... how many more Mondays until I go?!?!?! :)
                   
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                  • Joe Donahue

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                    #9 Joe Donahue, Sep 25, 2017
                    Last edited: Sep 25, 2017
                    My estimated date range is April - June, and I still checked today, because...
                    well, I'm not really sure why. I still checked though. LOL
                     
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                    • SoFlaModel3

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                      I just did my obligatory it’s been a few minutes since I last checked, check and the delivery estimator is down. We broke it :)
                       
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                      • K-MTG

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                        I am the one that posted that on TMC...I hope he is right!!!
                         
                      • Akilae

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                        F5... nope... Still end of 2018... F5... nope... Still end of 2018... :(

                        ;)
                         
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                        • TrevP

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                          That would be cool but I have my doubts. Given the current config mix they could still make cars on spec (in advance) and choosing your design would just result in one of them being tagged for delivery.
                           
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                          • shrspeedblade

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                            I don't know what is funnier.............the way you guys are checking or that it instigated me to go check!
                            :D
                             
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                            • Tesla2ElectricBoogaloo

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                              Now it's become a chicken/egg question....

                              is the estimator site running slow because we're all checking it? Or because there's something to check?


                              (FWIW: Just checked...no change. lol)
                               
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                              • d0cdave

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                                Facebook groups are buzzing about estimations slipping. So maybe more traffic because of that.
                                 
                              • SoFlaModel3

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                                I agree with you more and more on this.

                                The first production cars are identical sans exterior paint and wheel selection. It would be very easy to stock pile inventory.

                                On the other hand, the earlier the configurator opens the earlier Tesla is infused with a non-refundable $3,500 per configured car.
                                 
                              • Gracilis

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                                Yes you did...I didn't want to out you in case you weren't a member here or wanted to keep some anonymity. But thank you for attributing yourself!!! Sorry I didn't for you :(

                                I'm figuring they have a stockpile as well, which is why I think to get October deliveries they need to open very soon. We've now seen a few with white interior (which we knew was coming in "Fall") as well, so that's helpful too.

                                I figure it takes Tesla anywhere between 3-4 weeks to actually deliver a completed car. They always reference this lag time on their earnings reports as they'll have many cars produced that aren't counted as deliveries. While they don't "have" to deliver by October as they gave a range, I expect they very much want to.

                                Also, I saw on TMC's Model X forums from way back when that people were getting the batch e-mails around 3pm PDT, so we'll see what today holds...for now my fingers are still crossed :)
                                 
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                                • danzgator

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                                  As far as I know, these were all pre-production cars. Has anyone made a production sighting on the white interior?
                                   
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                                  • shrspeedblade

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                                    In regard to the building inventory in advance, this makes a lot of sense, especially since they could just start cranking out the colors at the same ratio Model S/X are ordered and would probably be off by only a few percentage points and could adjust down the road accordingly.
                                    Swapping wheels is a 20 minute operation with air tools and a lift. (Ok that's for me, and why I'm not on an F1 team! :p)

                                    It would certainly be a great way to get a lot of cars out the door very quickly......
                                     
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