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Discussion in 'Reserving, Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by BobLoblaw, Jul 31, 2017.

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  1. BobLoblaw

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    Well, as a Canadian I'm a bit disappointed at the moment. Seems as though all of us in Canada, regardless of when we reserved are showing "Late 2018" as our delivery window, for all models. Someone who ordered today in the US will get theirs before someone who lined up (in the cold I might add) in Canada. For basically the same car, minus a love for the metric system.

    Any insights as to the delays? I'm wondering a couple of things, namely if regulatory approval is being "held off" and also if those dates may change as time goes on. Hopefully for the better.

    Also noticed the CPO Model S inventory in Canada basically evaporated the day after the reveal. I think a lot of reservation holders pulled the trigger on a sub 80k CDN S.

    Any fellow Canadians have ideas (Trev?)
     
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    • ModFather

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      #2 ModFather, Jul 31, 2017
      Last edited: Jul 31, 2017
      @BobLoblaw not a Canadian, but I would be proud if I were.

      If I were you, I would just sit on my reservation and see what happens. Worst case scenario is late 2018 right now. Things could improve. EM could over promise (early 2018) and under perform (late 2018). That would make you even less happy! I think there may be a bunch of cancellations with regards to cost and delivery time. And as perverse as this may sound, I think that would make EM happy. He has said as recently as last Saturday, he has a monumental task to meet a schedule for 500K+ reservations. I think he would be perfectly happy and profitable with half that number. I have a suspicion that you will be getting your car around May/Jul timeframe. Less than a year. Let the smoke clear a bit, have a Molson on me, and let's see what happens. The people who are in a world of hurt right now are the RHD folks. But again, I think as time passes (quickly) they are going to be pleasantly surprised too!
       
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      • SoFlaModel3

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        I think there are 2 reasons...
        1. Shipping/delivery logistics
        2. Maximizing US Federal Tax Credits for their customers
         
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        • BobLoblaw

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          #4 BobLoblaw, Jul 31, 2017
          Last edited by a moderator: Jul 31, 2017
          Thanks Modfather, happy Canadian here for sure. We have our own issues, but without getting overly political [edit: minimally political commentary removed by moderator]

          We have no intention of cancelling our reservation, the only question now is how long - a complication is that we currently have a Jetta TDi and the "buyback" closes Sept 2018. That's what had us looking potentially for a CPO S in the meantime. May have to go to a single vehicle family (gasp) or figure out a short term solution to bridge the gap.

          But I'll still be here, waiting, insisting that until I see one pop off the aeros are wheels and not caps!
           
        • garsh

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          Guys, please, no political commentary on this site.
           
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          • Sandy

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            I think the 'Late 2018' is just a placeholder for now. I feel it will be updated as the rampup and deliveries proceed. I think we may have a much more accurate projection by late 2017.
             
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            • SoFlaModel3

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              I agree with this. Remember Tesla has a longer term goal of 10,000 cars a week, but the S Curve they showed ends at 5,000 cars a week by the end of 2017. The timing of Model 3's making their way out of the US probably depends heavily on how quickly they ramp up beyond 5,000 cars a week.
               
            • BobLoblaw

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              Thanks for editing the political stuff out of my post! Beat me to it.

              I hope you guys are right, and it's just a placeholder. Seems to make sense.
               
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              • Captain Semtex

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                Here's an interesting twist. The dual motor version won't be available until late Q1 2018. Even for Day 1 folks in California who own a Model S, the Delivery estimator is showing Q2 2018 for dual motor delivery. It's expected that by that time frame the maximum US federal tax credit will no longer be available.

                However, the interesting idea is that to enable early dual motor orders to be eligible for the full tax credit, Elon sends a whole bunch of "First Production" cars to Canada! As these won't count as part of the 200,000 cars, he continues to clear the backlog of reservations, makes some Canadians very happy and enables some USA standard range and dual motor buyers to get the full Federal Tax Credit!!
                 
              • Captain Semtex

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                I've never seen sub CAD$80K Model S in the CPO list... which is why I recently looked at the US CPO list. Now that's a lot more interesting and I was seriously considering buying a US CPO Model S and importing it into Canada. A Model S is all software... configuring daytime running lights and converting to kilometers must be trivially easy... right?

                Well, apparently not! The whole import process is actually quite straight-forward... and then I discovered the Transport Canada eligible vehicles list. You cannot import a Model S or Model X from the USA into Canada http://www.tc.gc.ca/motorvehiclesafety/safevehicles/importation/usa/vafus/list2/TESLA_MOTORS.htm. Specifically the text says...
                "Tesla Motors has informed Transport Canada that Tesla service centers are currently not in a position to support the substantial modifications required to bring U.S. Model S and Model X vehicles into compliance with Canadian requirements."

                Wow... what could be so different? However, let's assume this is genuine and not a ploy to stop Canadian's buying cheaper USA Teslas. This also might explain why Canadian's won't get their M3s until late next year. Remember Elon is simplifying production initially until they are at volume. If Canadian cars really are so different that they require "substantial modifications" to USA versions then you can understand why he's not going to make the Canadian version until later.

                (Personally I call BS on the above. I cannot believe no-one has imported a USA Model S).
                 
              • SoFlaModel3

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                I made this point in another thread, but I think you're setting up for additional disappointment. I don't see them shipping outside the US until they've currently estimated.
                 
              • BobLoblaw

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                The part that has us all scratching our heads is that it doesn't seem to matter when in Canada you put your reservation in, it still shows "Late 2018" for everyone. That seems to suggest that the delivery time is just a placeholder and they haven't crunched the numbers yet for Canada.
                 
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                • SoFlaModel3

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                  Ahh I see what you're saying now. Yes, I would make that same assumption. I do believe the reason for it is uncertainty over how quickly they scale from 5,000/week to 10,000/week and a fear of giving a date that they fall short of.
                   
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                  • TrevP

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                    I want my car as much as the rest of you, maybe more but one thing I've learned about Tesla is to be patient with expectations and not hang onto every word uttered by Elon.

                    Mr. Musk lots years of his life dealing with Model X production issues. These estimates are all based on him being extremely cautious with expectations not because the car is hard to make (well, it's EASIER to make than the S and X but cars are hard to make generally) but they have a very new complex production line now and it will take some time tweaking it. Tesla is still a young car maker and they still have lots to learn.

                    What we're seeing is a placeholder for ALL of Canada until they get a grasp on things in Fremont. We need to watch the production ramp up closely for signs they are indeed increasing production before we will see any changes to the estimate for Canada. The ticking time bomb of the Federal tax credit in the US is also a focal point for them, they will surely keep all production of Model 3 until at least the spring and perhaps well into summer 2018 solely for the US.
                     
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                    • BobLoblaw

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                      Thanks Trev. Nice to hear from someone in the know. I agree, Tesla is changing from a boutique operation to full-scale production...I think it's appropriate to give them some leeway in the transition.
                       
                    • Runt8

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                      The only way that would make any difference is if they sent enough to Canada to push back the 200,000th US delivery to Q2 2018. Pretty much all estimates put it at the beginning of Q1 so I really don’t see that happening.
                       
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