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Benefits of Waiting?

Discussion in 'Reserving, Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Dan Detweiler, Apr 15, 2016.

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  1. Dan Detweiler

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    So I haven't taken the plunge yet on ordering a Model 3 but am perilously close (not necessarily a bad thing). Trying to figure out if there are any benefits to waiting until production begins or at least until the 2nd reveal. I wonder how much longer the wait would actually be for delivery of a car reserved now and a car reserved a year from now. I'm not really concerned about loosing my money, just wondering about delivery differences.

    Any thoughts?

    Dan
     
  2. MelindaV

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    You are not out the deposit until you submit your configuration and sign off for them to move forward.
    On 3/31 I was thinking something similar, not specifically about being out the deposit, but how much difference would reserving now vs a year or two years from now would make. I woke up the next morning and made my reservation :). Mostly because I figured I wouldn't want to miss out at the beginning and start to see all the other Model 3s being delivered and knowing I could have been toward the front of the line.
    That said, I think it really depends on how the factory ramping up goes between now and the end of 2017 on how much difference that really will make. If all goes perfectly, you may be able to reserve one in the spring of 2018 and have it by that summer. Or we may all be waiting until 2020...
    If at all interested, loan Tesla your $1000 and get in the line ;)
     
  3. Badback

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    I waited 10 days before making my reservation. My strategy was to give me time to accumulated enough for a cash payment. I hate to borrow money now that I am retired.

    The only possible risk to the deposit is if Tesla goes bankrupt. The funds are not in escrow. So, if you absolutely cannot afford to loose $1000, don't do it. If I do loose my deposit, I won't notice the loss two years from now. I'm not worried as I'm sure that Tesla will succeed.
     
  4. Red

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    I to had to wait before putting down my 1000 dollars to get in line. But here is my take on things. If you waited like I did, you are at the back of the line. And that line is very long. So yes, do it ASAP. Don't wait until the second reveal. If you put your 1000 down right now, I would say we might be waiting until 2019 before we get that call from Tesla to start the final ordering process. That is only IF Tesla can speed up manufacturing. Otherwise we might be waiting even longer. I personally see this as a good thing because it does give me time to save up some cash for the car. If I save 400 bucks a month for the next... lets say 4 years, that means I will have 19K for the car. Of course that is if I can maintain the discipline to not dive into that fund for stupid crap. So it's good knowing this far in advance that a new car will one day be in your driveway. Gives you time to prepare.
     
  5. MelindaV

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    maybe I am just optimistic, but I doubt ordering today (vs 2 weeks ago) will add 2 years to the wait. There was mention, I believe in the Model 3 reveal, that the expectation would be to be capable of producing 500,000 cars a year. last sales numbers I heard a couple days ago was 400,000 reservations. So if all goes as planned, at todays reservation totals, all orders worldwide could be delivered within 12 months of the first. What happens between now and the first delivered vehicle, and how many more are reserved is up in the air.
    How they will prioritize within regions on reservations made in the first month vs after the final product announcement. Will all California reservations be dumped together from 3/31/2016 thru say 12/1/2017 then prioritized by specs, or will it break down more by priority of order timeline? If vehicle options are sold in packages, maybe it will look something like Package$$$, California, ordered by reservation date. then Package$$ in Cal by date, lastly Package$ in Cal by date... THEN the same in the northwest, rockies, central, east, distant lands, etc...
     
  6. Thalass

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    That assumes instant ramp up, which isn't going to happen. I'd say they'd try to double their current build rate, as an initial goal, then go from there. Also going slower than maximum to start with makes it easier for them to deal with problems found by the lucky beta-tester first recipients.
     
  7. Red

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    It would be better for them to start slow for the first few months of production. It would actually worry me if they just jumped into 400K cars per year. As Thalass said, it will be easier for them to catch problems early with the first recipients. So a logical first step is to start slow. After that, it's all about getting everything out as fast as Tesla can. And since this is Tesla which has never done anything on this scale before, I expect some growing pains with production rate.
     
  8. Andreas Stephens

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    Slightly off-topic, but consider this:

    http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2014/08/enjoy-an-experience-more-wait-for-it-longer.html

    I wonder if the 400,000 people who have already registered for purchase have done so by considering their Tesla Model 3 as a purely material possession, or if they view it more in terms of an experience that they are looking forward to...

    The research suggests that we enjoy waiting in anticipation for an experience more than we do for a material possession. Given the level of excitement and the period of waiting involved, I believe people are perhaps more looking forward to the "experience".
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Storm

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      That's a nice one and for me one of the reasons to get in line for a M3. Enjoying the process of the development of the car and imagining how it will be to finally drive away with it. Did it many years ago with a Morgan which is the other end of the future but gave the same thrill.
       
    • Cahoobie

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      Tesla only delivered 15,000 cars TOTAL in Q1 of 2016. Obviously the plan is to leverage the gigafactory and make full use of the existing facility (which had previously been used to generate 500,000 cars per year), but still. 400,000 cars is a lot to deliver.
       
    • Daniel Davis

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      #11 Daniel Davis, Apr 20, 2016
      Last edited: Apr 20, 2016
      When I placed my deposit on the 15th the manager told me they weren't starting with 500,000 a year. The plan is to slowly ramp up production to the 500k a year. The question is what is the yearly production goal to start and how long till they get to 500k.

      I actually hope I don't get delivery till April 2019 and would prefer April 2020. Gives me more time to save money. Also what are the chances if it takes a few years for delivery that prices could drop some from battery prices dropping etc.
       
    • AEDennis

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      Let's remember that Tesla is also producing and selling higher margin Model S and Model X throughout this process, chances are they will not produce 500,000 Model 3 in the first year.
       
    • garsh

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      Let's also remember that the 500,000 number that we're throwing around is the capacity of the NUMMI factory. When GM and Toyota were running it, it averaged around 300,000 cars/year.

      While I hope Musk can actually ramp up to that level by 2020 as they've stated publically, I just don't see it happening. I think they're going to fall way short.
       

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