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Canada. Day 1 reserve. Is a "guaranteed delivery date" 2018Q1 reasonable?

Discussion in 'Reserving, Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Steven, Jun 19, 2017.

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  1. Steven

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    I'm looking ahead. I reserved on Day 1/minute 1 online (too far from a showroom to do in-person).

    BC has a fairly generous secondary incentive program but it has some strict and interesting criteria. One of which is the dealer has to provide a "guaranteed delivery date" no more than 3 months into the future from the date of application. The incentives are very limited, so I'm hoping to apply in January (not earlier, since the allotment for 2017 is exhausted) and get a "guaranteed delivery date" sometime within 3 months later.

    a) Do you think January-ish 2018 is reasonable for Canadian online Day 1'ers?
    b) Will Tesla give me a guaranteed date AT ALL?
    c) If so, is 3 months reasonable to expect?
     
  2. BobLoblaw

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    Hey Steven,

    I'm in Kelowna as well, also a day 1 reservation. Not sure about the delivery date - I suspect that since we don't pay for the car until delivery, we can probably hold off on the incentive application until we know the date the car will be delivered? It's an interesting question for sure.

    On a side note, I think it's probably mandatory that whoever gets their 3 first takes the other out for a spin :)...

    Cheers,

    BobLoblaw (Peter)
     
  3. Steven

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    Lol @ blah blah blah :) That show was awesome.

    Hi Peter. Fully agree to your mandatory terms.

    I'm sure I can hold off on the application, but every day that ticks by means incentives being eaten up by other EV buyers in the province, and the number is very limited. 2017's for example, was completely exhausted awhile ago.
     
  4. BobLoblaw

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    Hey Steven,

    Just checked the CEV for BC site, looks like they have "refreshed" the program and there's currently over 23 million left in the pot. I think with day 1 reservations we should be OK... ;) Or at least that's how I'm reading the site.
     
  5. HOV_OK

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    I think Steven means the BC Scrap-It (non-profit) program which offers $6000 in addition to the $5000 CEV for BC (government) incentive when you scrap your ICE.

    I emailed them and they said they will re-open the program in January but the 500 incentives for 2017 were taken up 'almost immediately '. I'm a day 1 reservation holder as well (lined up on Robson St) but I think the timing of this is such that it probably isn't going to come together. As far as I can tell you would have to finalize your purchase right when the incentive was available in January and then get delivery within 90 days. Having that correspond to your place in line and having the options available seems like wishful thinking. It would be nice, and might make the difference for me as well as my wife is starting to think of better uses for the $60-70K I'm estimating this thing will cost.
     
  6. Steven

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    Yes, that's what I'm referring to, but shh! lol You go and point it out and it just makes it that much harder to get ours.

    Anyway, it wasn't as "almost immediately" as they've led you to believe. The good old Internet Archive isn't very complete for their website, but we can see that on February 4th only 27 incentives had been claimed (473 available) and on April 19th that had almost inverted (478 claimed, 22 available). So they go fast, certainly, but not immediately.

    I suspect with the 3, it will be a lot faster still. My hope is that the 3 actually won't impact it too terribly much. People lining up to pay $60-$70k (my estimates align with yours, though I've set a personal limit of $60k) for a car aren't likely to have a junker lying around to scrap. When you really dive into it, it is a fairly rare set of circumstances that have to come together along with luck of timing to be able to get the incentive.

    I really rather they'd relax their criteria, drop the incentive from $6k to $3k like they have for used and expand how many they offer. Interesting that they have no limit for used cars, and those still get you $3k.
     
  7. Kennethbokor

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    Hi, with regards to Canadian deliveries, I'm still thinking second half of CY2018. Obviously it really depends on how many Model 3's Tesla can crank out the second half of this year. I think they will deliver about 45,000 to 50,000 this CY. Others like Ben at Teslanomics is predicting in the 80,000 range.

    Even though you put in your reservation Day 1, Tesla will focus on USA deliveries first for I think at least this CY. Then sometime in 1H of 2018, start to broaden out to Canada after they've been able to blanket most of the U.S. So Canadian deliveries IMO are not just solely based on how many M3's can be manufactured.

    I'm hoping it will be sooner, but the realist in me so far is predicting this. Not sure if Tesla will roll out Model 3 deliveries west-east in Canada as well - I suspect not and that it will be a full-country launch for us.

    My 2 cents anyway.
     
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    • Steven

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      #8 Steven, Jun 20, 2017
      Last edited: Jun 20, 2017
      I would call that pessimistic, rather than realistic :)

      But it is in line with what most media outlets have predicted. It is COUNTER to what Tesla themselves have always stated about the rollout. From March 2016 until this very day, it says:

      When will my Model 3 be delivered?
      Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in mid 2017. At this time, the delivery estimate for new reservations is mid 2018 or later, depending on country of delivery. Once production begins, we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east. As we continue to ramp production, we will begin deliveries in Europe, APAC and right-hand drive markets.
      I've, of course, added the emphasis.

      As any grade 3 graduate can attest... North America includes Canada. Mr. Musk himself went to school here so he should be well aware of the definition. Why, then, it continually is expected that the US will get theirs first... I can't really grasp.

      I get the California-first thing (or, rather, Tesla/SpaceX first), but then I would expect Oregon, Washington and BC to all be next, along with Baja California if Mr. Trump hasn't completed his wall by then.
       
    • Kennethbokor

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      Good info Steven but I don't appreciate your harshness tone of your reply. I'm just stating what I am reasoning at this point, based on prior delivery records of Tesla as well as the fact that they don't have to "rush" out these deliveries. Tesla will also want to maximize the U.S. Tax Rebate status for as many of their U.S. reservation holders as possible.

      Yes Canada is part of North America and will certainly be the next Country to be on the delivery list after the U.S. rollouts. Don't forget Mexico is also part of NA so that may play a small part in ETA's.

      Until we have an earnings call from Tesla that provides actual Model 3 delivery info, all of our numbers are a best guess at this point. We all know that Tesla wants to provide deliveries and fulfill all the "backorders" or current reservations as soon as they can, however their is no real impetus for them to get all 400,000+ done in one year or 18 months. Just delivering 50,000 this CY would be a huge win for them financially.

      Again, I hope it's earlier as I would love to get mine before 2H of CY2018 and I'll update my prognosis as we get real world numbers back throughout the next several months. We can all argue and speculate as much as we want on what Tesla "wants" to do, but the actual numbers will be the telling truth. We know they want to get these cars out and they will...its just a matter of time.
       
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      • Steven

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        Woah! Then you misread my tone :) I wasn't intending on being "harsh" at all! At least not toward you. I think you're right. You and everyone else. It is a very common suggestion that they will fulfill American interests first, and I don't dispute that. Any "harhness" was intended toward Tesla for their misapplication of the term "North America". I hold out HOPE that you and everyone else (myself included) are wrong and he is, in fact, fully aware of the definition and that Canada West will be included in the early roll-out... but that's all.

        I didn't. That's why I mentioned Baja California. That is the two Mexican states (Baja California and Baja California Sur) on the West Coast, south of California (USA).

        Agreed, however I would like to think Mr. Musk is truthful when he implies Tesla is more important that TSLA. Getting cars out sooner for the sake of reducing GHG is the impetus.

        Again, sorry if you thought I was directing "harhness" your way. I wasn't.
         
      • Kennethbokor

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        Thanks Steven, my bad in misreading your tone. No issues thanks for clarity.

        Agree Elon wants to get cars out. Trev and I will continue to monitor the situation and report on it. Trev's source has stated that Tesla is well on its way to come out of the gate next month with thousands of cars produced. They could ramp up to the 5,000 per week goal for this year more rapidly than most think so this will be a big impact on delivery timing.
         
      • Steven

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        Isn't it crazy how fast everything is happening? I thought we were 10+ years from EV adoption rates we're seeing now. 20 or 30 or more years from anything approaching self driving. I used to think it would be so cool if cars could drive themselves because traffic jams and car accidents would just be gone. But I never seriously thought it could happen. Not really. And when the 3 was conceived, I thought we were years away from actually seeing it. Now we're so close. Exciting times. Promising times!
         
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        • Kennethbokor

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          Yes very fast. Full autonomy in less than 5-10 years, it will be the legislation and enforcement agencies that will be behind.

          We look forward to more advances with Tesla leading the way.
           
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          • John Slaby

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            I thought Elon indicated he thinks most in the US who have a reservation will get the federal rebate. To do this, Tesla would probably need to deliver exclusively internationally (e.g. Canada) just before the 200,000th US unit for whatever time is left in 2017 (assuming there is not too much time, that is). Then they resume US deliveries at the start of 2018 where they cross the 200k threshold. In that way, there would be nearly two full quarters of the full federal rebate when the production volumes are good. Just some speculation on my part (or perhaps hope), but it seems to make some sense. And that would be good for our international neighbors, some of whom would get their cars sooner as a result :)
             
          • Steven

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            Your logic is sound. I'm not sure Tesla as a company cares whether or not its customers get a rebate. They'll sell them regardless. But if they do care, then that sounds like a good way to do it.

            And timing it so BC gets their deliveries EARLY 2018 would be ideal for BC to take advantage of their limited rebates.

            I've wondered if it wouldn't be a bad idea to send him a message to make him aware of that :) But again, I just can't see them really caring.


            hey, about that US rebate. It isn't really a rebate, is it? Its money off your taxes, right? So what if you don't earn enough to pay that much in taxes? Just curious.
             
          • Kennethbokor

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            Good points John. They may take this "delay" tactic in order to prolong the (U.S) Federal Tax Credit (FTC). However, I still think that practicality will prevail and that a combination of Model S/X and Model 3 deliveries will put them at this threshold by the end of this CY. It was just reported recently that they crossed the 100K mark in the U.S. Continuing with the majority of Model S/X sales still US-based and Tesla predicting a production of 45-50K Model 3's this CY, I think they will be very close to hitting the 200K mark in December or very early in CY2018. If that is the case, then the 6-month sliding Credit schedule kicks in, which would put it to start in July of 2018. The full credit would be applicable till June 30 2018, then from July 1 to December 31 the credit would be 50%. Then January 1 to June 30 2019, the credit would be 25%. Then as of July 1 2019 the credit would end. This schedule could be out a max of 6-months depending on when they hit the 200K mark so best case would be it ends for Tesla December 31 2019.

            We will see.
             
          • John Slaby

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            My understanding is that if your total tax is less than the credit, you will lose the difference. I think it is unlikely that someone who can afford a Model 3 will not have a tax burden well above the $7500.
             
          • Steven

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            I kind of knew there'd be a "if you have to ask" answer in there... but consider that not everyone has the same financial situation.

            I, for example, would not be able to take advantage of said credit. Yet, I can afford to buy a Model 3 (I have two on reserve!).

            In fact, I think I've only paid $7500 in taxes once in the last... well, ever. And I'm in a country where - anecdotally anyway - we pay more taxes than Americans.

            Last year I think my tax burden was something like $5k. This coming year? I doubt I'll be paying any income tax.

            I may be atypical, but there's no way I'm alone.
             
          • John Slaby

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            Fair enough. I based the comment on my own experience with its inherent limits and biases (of which there are probably many) :D
             
          • HOV_OK

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            Nice research with the internet archive there Steven, very interesting, and sorry for my lack of subtlety :)

            I was with you, taking Tesla literally when they said west coast first, to include BC. Based on that, I felt there would be an opportunity to take advantage of both incentives by delaying the order until Jan and then taking whatever car was available. This would likely preclude dual motors though which could be a non-starter.

            Incidentally, one of my first destinations for a spin will likely be Kelowna to see the in-laws. I was guessing the 75 could make it from Langley in one go, but the 60 would likely need topping up in Merritt. Any thoughts?
             

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