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Deciding when to get my Model 3

Discussion in 'Reserving, Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by aarons23, Oct 2, 2017.

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  1. aarons23

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    I am attempting to decide whether to wait or to order once I have access to the configurator.

    I have decided to go with these options-
    First Production
    • Premium Package
    • Long Range
    Paint: White

    Undecided on getting-
    Wheels: 19" Sport Wheels or stick with the Aero wheels. (I plan to put snow tires on instead of going with AWD, since many are saying that electric cars with RWD and snow tires is good enough.)

    My current estimated time is Apr - Jun 2018. The reason I am trying to decide whether or not to order it once I have access is due to my current lease which doesn't end until June 2019 and the full $7,500 tax credit expiration.

    If I were to get it once I have access to the configurator, I would turn my lease in and pay the remaining
    $3,780 to end my lease. However, I would get the full tax credit so adjusted it'd be around a $3,720 tax credit to me when subtracting the cost to end my lease early. Or do I plan on just waiting my lease out, most likely not getting any tax credit at all, and buy the car with even more refinements in June of 2019?

    I keep going back and forth and I am thinking that I am going to hold off on getting EAP and just pay the $1,000 penalty for buying it at a later time since I don't drive much more than 30 miles on most days.

    Let me know all of your thoughts as well!
     
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    • danzgator

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      Have you looked into transferring the balance of the lease on swap a lease or lease trader?
       
    • aarons23

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      I have but I financed with a FCU so that's not something they do. I also didn't add this, but there is potential that I could just sell my lease and then pay the remainder off. In doing this I could potentially make 1-2k based off of the value of the car being so high.
       
    • danzgator

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      Financially, it seems like you gotta get it before they end of June. You win less, but you still win overall. Maybe drive the lease to Fremont, turn it in, then drive the M3 back. That way you at least you use up your miles for something worthwhile.
       
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      • SoFlaModel3

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        Makes sense to crunch the numbers, but also very likely the $7,500 portion of the credit ends 6/30/2018.
         
      • aarons23

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        This is very true and if I don’t get the full $7,500 I’m just going to wait for AWD I think.
         
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        • aarons23

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          Looks like the 7,500 isn't going to end until end of Q3 2018 now.
           
        • garsh

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          If that happens, then that means that Tesla will be in huge financial trouble.
          They can't afford to delay the production ramp-up that long.
           
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          • Frank99

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            It requires some really pessimistic assumptions to get to the point where the 7500 credit lasts to the end of Q3.
             
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            • bagspacked

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              Agree. If you do the math and they hit their numbers they would cross 200k in Q1. There are some who are speculating that they would intentionally wait until the first day of Q2 to cross, so that they have an extra quarter of the credit, but as mentioned above they kindof need the cash that comes with selling/delivering vehicles
               
            • Bokonon

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              Agreed. If the full credit lasts that long, then one or more of the following has likely occurred:
              • Tesla has radically and suddenly changed its delivery plan (e.g. started delivering exclusively to non-U.S. locations), much to the annoyance of U.S. Model 3 reservation-holders (and Model S / X buyers) who were expecting (and planning for) imminent delivery, per Tesla's prior statements.
              • Tesla is having serious issues ramping up Model 3 production
              • Tesla is experiencing a steep drop-off in demand for the Model S / X
              I'm not a fan of any of those scenarios, especially the last two.
               
            • Bokonon

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              FWIW, here's a flow-chart that outlines my personal decision process for "when to get my Model 3" based on the availability of AWD details and federal tax credits at the end of Q1 2018.
              AWD Decision Tree.png

              Right now, the odds seem to be pointing heavily toward me placing an order for LR RWD in April...
               
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              • SoFlaModel3

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                #13 SoFlaModel3, Oct 5, 2017
                Last edited: Oct 5, 2017
                No chance -- as others have said something has gone horribly wrong for $7,500 to last through Q3 2018.

                They still have a chance to hit in Q4, but the most likely hit point on 200k domestic cars is Q1 thereby ending the $7,500 portion of the credit on 6/30/2018.
                 
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                • Rusty

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                  I think it ends Q2 2018.
                   

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