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Discussion in 'Reserving, Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Model 3 lover, Apr 4, 2016.
Will the end of 2017 be real delivery date? What's your opinions?
Don't know about an exact date but management at Tesla has made it clear they learned their mistake with Model X.
The biggest problem they face at the moment is ramping up production to meet the backlog.
That's true. The almost 300K reservation seems really crazy.
I'm thinking that the backlog will be much more than 300K when we see Wednesday's report, perhaps 400K
For the real delivery date, I think the screen behind Elon indicated LATE 2017 would be when the first model 3 would roll out. That could mean as early as September(3Q) and as late as December (4Q).
Please keep in mind that the deliveries will Start then. Since the production plan for the Model 3 will need to be VASTLY different than it is for the S or X, we have no notion of the number of Model 3s that will be pumped out per day or week. That magic number of cars per week is what I will be listening to when it's broadcasted.
Their target production for 2020 is 500K (10000/week minus Holidays / shut down dates) per year which will take significant capital to get to. For the start in 2017, 5000 per week would be a really optimistic production target, with increases a more lines are added. . . . As investment is turned to capital then turned back into more investment in more lines. One very good thing about having so many preorders is that he can take that to funds/investors and gather more capital if needed based on the numbers/deposi
At this moment they are struggling to pump out the model X, so I'm glad we don't have gull wing doors on this one.
The Gigafactory will also need to be running at full speed by then.
I plan to have a full trimmed out version with lots of add-ons , but since I did my reservation online the minute it opened up and I live in Ohio , I'm expecting to see mine Feb 2018 at the earliest and December 2018 at the latest...but I'm willing and able to stick with my guzzling ICE until then.
I avoided the lines at opening in Pasadena, Californa, which I heard were literally around the block and more. Luckily, when I arrived at 3:40pm, I waited all of 8 minutes before I was invited in. In another five minutes, I was an owner and out the door again. I've waited longer than that for a Starbucks. I'm hoping that since West Coast cars are to deliver first, I'll have a Christmas present next year in the shape of a shiny silver Model 3.
So jealous people are like you living in west coast. I live in Pennsylvania and I will be wait...for a long.....time.....
Wonder when we will see it in europe... hoping still 2018, afraid it will be more like 2019.
Ordered mine online 5hours after the revealing. So my reservation would be between 115000 and 200000 I guess.
I'm expecting mine in April 0f 2018...two years from now.
Here in the UK I'm not expecting it until 2020...
Got my Model S April 2014, sort of hoping the Model 3 is April 2018 if they do accelerate things. That feels like wishful thinking based on their history to date though.
I'm expecting mine around December 2017 to February 2018. I was one of those who waited in line in my area and if production remains on track, would hopefully see my car before end of next year.
I timed my current lease to expire in April 2018 to give Tesla time to ramp up production. Now, I'm not so sure it will arrive in April. Not a big deal though, we still have my wife's car we can drive in the meantime.
There are many contingencies and even Elon seems to have been taken aback by the preorder volume (tweeting his reaction). I think December 2017 is the best case scenario to start production. I would not be surprised to see people have to wait well into the second half of 2018 and perhaps early 2019 to receive their car.
I live in the east coast of the United States and while I plan on loading up with options on the 3, I'm fully embracing the fact that I won't see delivery until late 2018, possibly even 2019. If it comes sooner than that, great. But I definitely won't be holding my breath.
Tesla delivered a total of 50,580 cars in 2015, and according to their recent press release:
Q1 deliveries consisted of 12,420 Model S vehicles and 2,400 Model X vehicles. Q1 deliveries were almost 50% more than Q1 last year and Tesla remains on track to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new vehicles in 2016.
We know that the ultimate goal is to ramp up to 500,000 annually by 2020, but I believe this total production right? Model S, X, and 3? So of the 500,000, Model 3 maybe 350k to 400k? I agree with what Van Shrider stated above:
"the production plan for the Model 3 will need to be VASTLY different than it is for the S or X, we have no notion of the number of Model 3s that will be pumped out per day or week. That magic number of cars per week is what I will be listening to when it's broadcasted."
Even if Tesla can start delivering Model 3's in Q4 of 2017, how many do we think they will actually produce that quarter? I'm guessing less than 10k. If the goal is to be producing 7,500 Model 3's per wk by 2020, than what do we think the capacity will be in the first weeks of production? I'm guessing 30% or less of that goal. Assuming a 2018 production rate of 2,250 model 3's per week gives us 9,750 Model 3's per month.
There were 115k reservations by the time Elon took to the stage on March 31. I'm guessing that included the employee reservations from the day before. We know that West coast deliveries will get priority, and then also preference for existing Model S and X owners... and also employees... and also those who have ordered more options, and also those who waited in-line vs on-line. There are multiple factors that will bump you up or down the priority list, but of those factors, we don't really know which get priority do we?
(BTW Has anybody ever learned the boundaries for the "regions" or what stores fall into which region or even how many regions there are? It all seems rather vague)
I waited in a line at the Kansas City Tesla store for about 20 minutes, but didn't get there until the doors had been open for about 2 hours. My guess was that they were processing reservations close to 1-2 per minute so I'm probably several hundred down the list for that store, and god knows how many for that region. If I had to guess I'd say I'm probably 70-80k on that list of 115k.
If we assume 2018 starts with a production rate of 9,750 / mo., than I'm guessing that I won't be getting the call until Q3-Q4. It will be a hard wait, but at least I have this website to focus my obsession.
Tonight the rep in the showroom mentioned that we should keep in mind that the number of reservations represents a worldwide number. and that for the ones that will be made in the US, (Yes other deals are in the works.) North American sales will take priority over overseas exports. This has a lot to do with both logistics, and working out the tweeks before they are exported. The first model 3 reservation was in Australia, and then the world Turned our way around with lots of international overseas reservations before yours. Ironically, the first guy in the world to get a reservation might not get his until North America has been served.
So the next question is, of the number of reservations that you are in, what percentage of those were from US and Canada? With that in mind, you might get it faster than you think IF Elon and the Tesla gang can hit the target dates.
Tesla Model 3: US West Coast Served First, Followed By Parts East, Europe, Asia, Then RHD
I live in upstate NY & stood in line on 3/31 before the Tesla store opened...ordered at 10:20am. Hoping for delivery by end of 2018.
My guess is on the east coast, I will see mine October-November 2018. With most likely the $1750 left in tax credit (right on the edge!)
Good analysis. Do you think Elon will under promise and over deliver?