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Discussion in 'Tech Talk' started by garsh, Mar 24, 2017.
Somebody STOP ELON!!!!.
This is too much to digest in 2 hrs
As much as I love Elons Twitter sometimes he causes more questions then answers. I'm more thinking that he's taking about the 18650 cell and not the 2170 considering the 2170 can only be found in Tesla Energy products ATM. I'd probably be happy about the 75KWH battery myself.. I'd feel compelled to get the largest pack available for a bit of futureproofing but I'd rather have a bunch of options.
Interesting observation. I hadn't thought that he could be referring to 18650 cells.
Does it mean the the Model 3 Performance could use 2170 and have more KWh and better performance and efficiency ?
I am pretty sure that ALL Tesla cars will use the 21700 cells once they begin making them for auto use. Right now they are just being made for Powerwall and Powerpack installation.
Precisely. The 3 is their first chance to redesign the pack completely and use the new cell. The S and X will get the same cell at some point but nobody knows when. The 2170 is just being used in the new 200KWH Powerpack and 14KWH Powerwall at the moment and soonish they should start stockpiling cells for the Model3. They said sometime beginning int he second quarter.
The plan has always been to use 2170 cells in the 3. I think he was setting expectations, not trying to be cute with his answer.
Wondering if the car's wheelbase is a little smaller than has been conjectured. Lots of comparisons with the wheelbase essentially being the same as the S, so the max battery estimates were ~85-100 kWh. If 75 is the max, maybe the wheelbase is closer to 20% smaller versus the 10% that we've been assuming for the past year or so.
"Model 3 at current cell/module energy densities".
The key word is current. I believe it will be revised in the future.
It's not. The wheelbase on Model 3 is shorter and the car is narrower as well. Battery pack is this physically smaller than the Model S
I also think limiting the initial Model 3 versions to 75 gives them somewhere to go the following year, and the one after that. I'm not so much believing that 75 is the max space available, especially with the updated cells. Plus it's a good breaking point with the Model S. They have no need to overlap the battery size between the 3 and S... keeps the S and X feeling like the grownups not being outdone by the new kid. And you know with the new AI computers in them, you want them to feel good about themselves.
A plain Jane 75 Model S is rated at 265 miles of range. This is with the 18650 cells. New cells...smaller car...I don't think 300 miles on a 75 Model 3 is out of the question. Am I being too optimistic here?
Nope. 250/300... IMHO, that is the new window (can't repeat range all the time !! ) - in ETA spec miles - for Model ≡ ranges (respectively for smaller/larger battery sizes)...
Well I for one would be very happy if they can actually pull that off, but this would mean some pretty incredible new efficiencies have been achieved in the electronics and drivetrain. My back-of-the-envelope math has a hard time arriving at 75 kWh = 300 miles even when factoring in the smaller size and better cD, because it's still gotta weigh north of 4000 lbs. Even if a stripper AWD 75 does manage 300 miles, I really can't see the Performance model doing it, which is absolutely what I wanted. Speaking of which the 75 kWh is also going to significantly limit maximum possible acceleration. Ugh.
My head was just spinning last night as to what to do.
Up until now I was ready to go all-in on a maxed-out PxxD setup. But if it won't at least offer old-school P85D Insane performance or manage 300 miles then I might just settle for a bare-bones AWD until a more energy dense pack (and HUD, etc.) are available. Let's hope I'm proven wrong!
I think the video was put out to prove that production ramp is on target. I think the tweets were put out to limit the frenzy of expectations this would cause and maintain S sales in the meantime. The test drives were in dual motor final drivetrain cars. The acceleration is there you can tell from the videos but wont top the S fewer would buy one if it did. It will likely blow away anything in this class and price range.
I am still hoping this tweet was so carefully phrased because he is leaving open battery improvements he knows are coming. Current = 18650 July=2170.
Bold part is incorrect presumption. We know that Model 3 will use 2170 cells. We already saw Model 3 being driven.
Therefore 2170 cells are being used in production candidates ATM.
Designing pre-production Model 3 battery pack with 18650 cells is extremely extensive work. It did not happen and never will.
Correct... yet I think @Brian_North 's statement was referring to commercially available T≡SLA products, which does not yet include Model ≡... it really depends on how one interprets the word 'current' in Elon's tweet...
In the end it does not matter that much, or, as our very own @TrevP is know to say 'it's not the end of the world'... There will be constant improvements with this and other T≡SLA cars as time goes... Everybody can delay their order once, yet I think there will be enough folks who will be happy to jump a few spots in line because they don't need the fanciest, fully loaded car... And there is no better alternative one in sight on the market for some time... So, to each her/his own!
Things are (going to) get better, things are getting better.... Every day...
Hold on here, 75kWh is still 75kWh no matter what the cells sizes are!!!
We do know that Model 3 will have new 300kw inverters:
So we can expect at least the same range as a Model S with a 75kWh pack and that's before any efficiencies in inverter technology, weight savings, tire resistance changes etc.. It's too soon to speculate on the max range but easy to expect a baseline on what a bigger and slightly heavier Model S is capable of.
75kWh battery max, at the moment, is what is planned so we at least know that and that's where I'm putting my $$ first. I'd love to have AWD but would I miss it? Probably not but maybe the delay will work in our favour given Canada is usually 3-6 months behind US deliveries anyhow and I'd like to get my car ASAP.
Everything else will fall into place once we know more.
All true, @TrevP . All @Dan Detweiler was saying though was, if a 75 kWh MS gets 265 miles today, is it wild to imagine 300 with:
In the end, simple maths force me to point out that 300/265 means +13%... does not strike me as 'too optimistic'...