Do the analysts on Wall Street really know how to properly evaluate Tesla [NASDAQ: TSLA]? Sure, we've received some helpful guidance from Gene Munster, Ben Kallo, and the ever-mercurial Adam Jonas. But most analysts have completely missed the boat. What if someone who custom-builds electric vehicles, takes apart battery packs, and tinkers with Teslas could offer unique insight into the company?
Above: Tesla Model S (Instagram: stigtronvold)
Jack Rickard is both a Model S owner and seasoned expert on the EV scene. He also hosts EVTV*, a resource for those building custom electric cars and converting gas cars into EVs. The show started in 2009 and caters to EV conversion shops, University build teams, design engineers, and custom EV builders all over the world. Shows typically focus on components and techniques pros can use to convert a gas car into an EV. Special episodes feature Jack taking apart Tesla battery packs, control electronics, drive units, and more.
Recently, Jack decided to try his hand taking apart something different — the Tesla bull thesis. His self-professed "rant" runs for nearly two hours and provides some eye-opening insights into Tesla. After contacting Jack, I asked if it was possible to distill his insights into a half-hour summary video. He agreed. You can check it out below.
Above: Our highlights of Jack's forecast for Tesla (Source: EVTV*)
Jack discusses a wide range of advantages that Tesla has over legacy automakers. However, in order to condense his findings, this video edit focuses on four key areas that I found especially intriguing: Tesla's Supercharger Network, Batteries, Solar + Storage, and Vehicle Autonomy.
Tesla's Supercharger Network represents a massive land grab and Jack points out that it's the only EV network that really works. Yes, Tesla's Gigafactory is something akin to Elon Musk's castle, but, according to Jack, the Gigafactory represents battery industry influence far greater than most realize. The combination of solar + storage represents a wholly new direction for a car company, but, Jack thinks in "one fell swoop" this can disrupt multiple industries. Finally, Tesla's lead in vehicle autonomy alone could justify the current stock price — he explains why.
Above: Another look at the stunning Tesla Model S (Instagram: stigtronvold)
While Jack expresses frustration with Wall Street analysts, it's important to note that he doesn't do any kind of "deep dive" into the financials. That said, his insights are unique to someone entrenched in the electric vehicle space. He thinks Tesla's narrative could play out something like the Apple story. Others have also referenced the connection. Nevertheless, it'll be fun to revisit this video in 60 months to see if Tesla stock actually approaches $950. After all, a few years ago he predicted, with near-perfect accuracy, that the stock would go from $30 to $350.
Note: Article originally published on evannex.com, by Matt Pressman
*Source: EVTV; Original two-hour video is also available on youtube via Jack Rickard