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From Electrek: Elon Musk: more than half of new vehicles will be electric and almost all...

Discussion in 'News from Electrek.co' started by RSSFeed, Jul 15, 2017.

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  1. RSSFeed

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    Elon Musk: more than half of new vehicles will be electric and almost all autonomous in the US within 10 years

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    We have recently seen several projections about the adoption of electric vehicles from different companies and research groups, like Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg, and even OPEC. Most of them predict that about half of new vehicle production will be electric at some point between 2035 and 2040.

    Now Tesla CEO Elon Musk jumps in with his own prediction, which is unsurprisingly much more aggressive. moreā€¦

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    Continue reading...
     
  2. Watts4me

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    In my opinion,10 years is too soon. It take car companies around 3 to 4 years to design and develop one vehicle. And a ton of money.
    I believe that in 10 years every car company will have at least 1 or 2 EV options. Hopefully they have learned their lesson and start designing these EV's to look nice.
     
  3. ModFather

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    Say Watts, you could very well be right, but on the other hand this whole EV/FSD thing could catch on like a wildfire! There is not only smoke at TESLA but we have a blazing campfire at this point. Sure there will be lots of bumps in the road ahead, but I have my seatbelt buckled and I am ready for a wild ride.
     
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    • Watts4me

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      I hope it does catch like a wild fire. But they would have to start designing EV's today to start replacing every current ICE model. And that would take a ton of money.
      Also what Tesla has going for them is the supercharger network. Which give people who travel peace of mind.
       
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      Watt is interesting, if you analyze the studies proffered by @Michael Russo , EVs are predicted to catch on much more slowly in the US than China or India. This is discouraging since we have such a love affair with ICE, guns, NASCAR, and Budweiser. This is the result of big money special interests and their lobbyists gasping for their last breath of air like a fish flopping around and dying in a pool of contaminated water that is quickly evaporating, But California will continue to lead the way with EV production and adoption and like China, ICE registrations in California will be limited for personal use and gradually phased out with EVs getting an exemption. This is the Dawning of the Age of Aquarius.
       
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      • Watts4me

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        Even if it catches like wildfire in China, the auto manufacturers do not have anything to offer. They would still need to invest into production of an EV. And not just one but their whole line up. I just don't see it happening in 10 years. One reason would be the price of whatever the come up with. The M3 is at a 35k price because of Tesla producing their own batteries. And the masses can't afford that kind of starting price.
         
      • Watts4me

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        Something else I just thought of. These automakers have to sell their cars through dealers and as you know they all have to get their cut of the profit. And that in the end will hurt them. That's why they are kicking and screaming as well.
         
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        • Topher

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          #8 Topher, Jul 16, 2017
          Last edited: Jul 16, 2017
          Looking at it from a different perspective, when will people just stop buying ICE cars? No one want to be stuck with the hot potato of the last of the ICE cars. ICE sales can (and I suspect will) drop faster than EV car sales rise. At that point it doesn't matter how much it costs, the car companies can either ramp up or die.

          Plenty of car companies starting up in China. They don't have a legacy business to protect. Is your next car going to be a Chinese export? Plenty of people said they wouldn't buy a Japanese car too. The automakers begging the Chinese not to set their electrification plans so fast, are just saying, "please take the initiative, we would rather buy from you anyway."

          Thank you kindly.
           
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          #9 ModFather, Jul 16, 2017
          Last edited: Jul 16, 2017
          TESLA is currently negotiating with the Chinese to build an assembly plant and Gigafactory in China as well as India which are the two countries with the biggest market for EVs. The other automakers can render all the "concept cars" they want but they are sealing their own fate by not keeping up with the TESLA juggernaut.

          No, the average Chinese cannot afford a $35K car but the Chinese government is subsidizing them with significant rebates because it is cheaper in the long run to subsidize cars than put money into solving a MAJOR environmental and public health crisis in their country. That is why the Paris Climate Accord is so important. California and other progressive States are now working directly with the Chinese, outside of the Federal government, to implement an aggressive climate agreement. Governor Brown spent several days there a couple of weeks ago. I also think that TESLA will develop an EV "people's car" the size of the original VW bug at a price that people in third and second world countries can afford.
          The traditional dealership auto sales concept is now, for all practical purposes, dead witnessed by TESLA selling around 500K cars over the Internet. Sure many of the dealerships will hang on for the next few years but they are dying a slow (and now fast) agonizing death. I got to know a Subaru dealer while working out at the gym. He closed down his traditional dealership 10 years ago when he saw the handwriting on the wall. He kept the real estate and reduced his staff from several dozen to about 6 guys. He said he personally handles all the sales over the Internet. He told me his income remained the same but with half the effort.

          Time to think outside the way things have always been done.
           
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