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From Electrek: Tesla Model 3: Tesla is now holding close to $700 million in customer deposits

Discussion in 'News from Electrek.co' started by RSSFeed, Oct 27, 2016.

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  1. RSSFeed

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    Tesla Model 3: Tesla is now holding close to $700 million in customer deposits

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    Once again, Tesla’s management refused to update the number of Model 3 reservations yesterday during a conference call with analysts following the disclosure of Tesla’s third quarter financial results. CEO Elon Musk said that “this is not something we comment on and not something that is a figure of merit in any way.”

    He added that Tesla is still seeing “very strong” demand for the Model 3. If you look at Tesla’s updated financial for the third quarter, it looks like Model 3 reservations are still growing at a healthy rate despite Tesla ‘anti-selling’ the car, as Musk said. more…

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  2. Michael Russo

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    #2 Michael Russo, Oct 27, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2016
    Interesting article from Elektrek... With $700 millions in deposits, it does indeed seem reasonable to infer that there must be at least half a billion of that from all of us Model ≡ reservationists... Elektrek actually does include the hypothesis that T≡SLA must be now very close to the half a million reservations, or may already have surpassed that number!

    I remember from earlier posts that folks expressed serious doubts about the validity of the so-called 'T≡SLA Model ≡ Reservation Counter'... Being the (at times naive) enthusiast that I am, I could not help myself to keep an eye on this potentially questionable dashboard, in the absence of a more reliable source, let alone occasional updates from Elon' tweet box... :)

    So guess what the 'counter' is showing today (tonight for us on this side of the water?! Check out the pic attached...

    In any case, I continue to take my daily patience medicine with an expected end 1q19 delivery in mind, as well as becoming an ever more avid follower of (as well as occasional contributor to) these pages - thank you, TrevP, MelindaV, and you all T≡SLA & Model ≡ aficionados, for making the wait incredibly addictive!!!

    Good day/evening,
    Mike
     

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    • TrevP

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      Seems to be the case when even asled during the conference call yesterday Elon didn't want to expand on the reservation situation. He only reiterated that the first 12 months of production are sold out despite doing no advertising at all.
       
    • Michael Russo

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      True, Trev, which I would argue is a disguised way to confirm it... :)
       
    • Michael Russo

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      There you go... If you believe the source ;-)
       

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    • Johnm6875

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      I'm a little surprised Customer Deposits were down 26,505 from the 3Q report. I like to think people in front of me in the M3 line just couldn't wait and bought an S, allowing me to move up.
       
    • Michael Russo

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      If I read your post right, @Johnm6875 , you are saying Deposits went down $26.5k in 4Q, right? That would be about 2,500 spots freed up... certainly nice... yet only half a week production at targeted 4Q17 rates...
      Since there are probably >450k reservations ahead of me, I may jump an inch... :p
       
    • Johnm6875

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      From the Sept and Feb reports:

      2016 3rd Quarter Customer Deposits = $690,364,000

      2016 4th Quarter Customer Deposits = $663,859,000

      Reduction of $26,505,000 would be equivalent to 26,505 M3 spots if the reduction correlates to cancelled reservations.

      I would guess there is limited correlation and "Deposits" relate to MS, MX, Powerwall/Powerpack and solar products also.

      I do like the idea of moving up several thousand spots, however. Waiting is hard.
       
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      • TrevP

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        If reservations decreased Tesla is not want to disclose that because the media would read something negative into it.

        Some have gone to other cars, others cancelled and bought a Model S.

        If reservations increased that's also not something you want to disclose much given that the wait list would increase and upset people who think they can get cars as soon as production starts.

        They anti-sell the 3 because:

        1. You don't want to kill sales of your current cars
        2. Don't play up something that's not for sale yet

        While many think it would be advantageous to Tesla to tout how many reservations they have now there's actually no positive outcome to disclose that information regardless of them being up or down and Tesla knows this. That's why they're quiet on the matter.
         
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        • Johnm6875

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          Reality check:

          I'm not sure the Customer Deposits listed int the TSLA letter have a direct correlation to the Reservation #'s.
           
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          • MelindaV

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            #11 MelindaV, Feb 26, 2017
            Last edited: Feb 26, 2017
            Those numbers also include the Model S / X deposits too, so would expect most changes in the total number have to do more with them than the 3.
            Model X reservations were $5000 and there likely were still some of those in the mix Q3 and much fewer, if any in Q4, regular S / X orders are a $2,500 deposit. So if you figure there are 25,000 S/ X orders per quarter that is 62,500,000 new deposits per quarter. Most orders are delivered within 6 weeks +/- so half a quarter.. around $31,259,000 outstanding per quarter in their order deposits.
             
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            • BigBri

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              Some of the deposits could be Signature deposits too which I believe were 40 grand. Not that there'd be a lot of those but it all adds up. Reality is we're still a ways out from the Model3 yet and a lot of people that put reservations down probably had little education on the product and just hoped a new car showed up 6 months later.

              Tesla is probably happy with the decrease. If someone walks into a showroom and doesn't have the income to buy a Model S or X then why not take their money for a deposit BUT it's a hard sell when you're saying well it might be 2019 or later.
               
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