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From Electrek: Top Tesla analyst: 2017 is the year of the Model 3, but Morgan Stanley’s...

Discussion in 'News from Electrek.co' started by RSSFeed, Dec 9, 2016.

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  1. RSSFeed

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    Top Tesla analyst: 2017 is the year of the Model 3, but Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas explains why he thinks it will be late

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    Last month, we reported that top Tesla analyst and one-time ‘Tesla Cheerleader‘ Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley believes the Model 3 will be over a year late. Today, he released a new note explaining in more details why he believes that and how it plays into his vision of Tesla using the vehicle program to finance its “bigger mission to accelerate the development of a highly safe and efficient transport utility.” more…

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  2. TrevP

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    Adam Jonas is going to eat his words this time next year. Tesla is not fooling around with the Model 3 program.
     
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  3. garsh

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    But all it takes is for one parts vendor to drop the ball, and they can't ship cars.

    I could imagine a competitor making a back-room deal with one or two vendors to let production slip. Or more likely, for one or two parts vendors to simply have a production issue. Here's hoping that the car's simplicity keeps that from happening.
     
  4. TrevP

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    There are lots of factors that could lead to a delay but Tesla learned a very valuable lesson with the Model X: do not rely on part suppliers, be prepared to make them yourself if necessary. Elon said they are prepared to do this to prevent delays. In many ways it's also a threat to suppliers: get your shit together or else.
     
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  5. Michael Russo

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    Agree, Trev, Elon knows how much is riding in this and I am convinced you're right about the right suppliers choices & expectation settings having been made!
    Besides, am I the only one that can't be totally impressed by a 46% success rate & average return of 6.3% for Jonas? ;)
     
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  6. AscendedSaiyan

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    Elon did say he had back-up suppliers, in case of a supply issues.
     
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  7. Badback

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    It would be normal to have multiple suppliers for parts and to avoid single source parts in the design. Another key strategy is to own the tooling for such things as molded, stamped, and cast parts so that they can be pulled from a non-performing supplier.

    So, no, a single supplier is not going to shut you down.
     
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  8. LUXMAN

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    In Part, he sounds like a cheerleader, but one that has been burned a little. That can really be seen when he says
    "our base case is for a launch in late 2018. We have taken this conservative approach to allow for the probability that Tesla will choose to prioritize the quality, cost, performance and lifesaving technology of the vehicle."
    So I think he gets it, but Elon does have a track record of being over optimistic with his timelines. If you read the biography of Musk by Ashlee Vance, it is replete with examples of this.
    I hope that this time, that is not the case. But I want this car to succeed and not have any problems develop that could hurt the brand image, especially with so many first time EV customers coming to the table.
     
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  9. BigBri

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    I'm pretty optimistic as Tesla didn't try and raise more capital at the end of this year. All the analysts expected them to. If the 3 was looking to miss its deadline you'd think they'd be spending a lot of money trying to get things moving faster. Everything sounds to be on target.
     
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