1. Tesla Model 3 apparel now available!


    Dismiss Notice

From Electrek: Top Tesla analyst: 2017 is the year of the Model 3, but Morgan Stanley’s...

Discussion in 'News from Electrek.co' started by RSSFeed, Dec 9, 2016.

More threads by RSSFeed
  1. RSSFeed

    M3OC RSS Bot
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2016
    Messages:
    2,666
    Likes Received:
    192
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Top Tesla analyst: 2017 is the year of the Model 3, but Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas explains why he thinks it will be late

    [​IMG]

    Last month, we reported that top Tesla analyst and one-time ‘Tesla Cheerleader‘ Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley believes the Model 3 will be over a year late. Today, he released a new note explaining in more details why he believes that and how it plays into his vision of Tesla using the vehicle program to finance its “bigger mission to accelerate the development of a highly safe and efficient transport utility.” more…

    Filed under: Uncategorized [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG][​IMG]

    Continue reading...
     
  2. TrevP

    M3OC Founder / Administrator
    Staff Member Founder
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2016
    Messages:
    3,001
    Likes Received:
    2,338
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    Aurora,Ontario
    Country:
    Country
    Adam Jonas is going to eat his words this time next year. Tesla is not fooling around with the Model 3 program.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • garsh

      Dis Member
      Moderator
      Expand Collapse

      Joined:
      Apr 4, 2016
      Messages:
      2,115
      Likes Received:
      1,160
      Trophy Points:
      113
      Gender:
      Male
      City & State/Province:
      Pittsburgh PA
      Country:
      Country
      But all it takes is for one parts vendor to drop the ball, and they can't ship cars.

      I could imagine a competitor making a back-room deal with one or two vendors to let production slip. Or more likely, for one or two parts vendors to simply have a production issue. Here's hoping that the car's simplicity keeps that from happening.
       
    • TrevP

      M3OC Founder / Administrator
      Staff Member Founder
      Expand Collapse

      Joined:
      Mar 1, 2016
      Messages:
      3,001
      Likes Received:
      2,338
      Trophy Points:
      113
      Gender:
      Male
      City & State/Province:
      Aurora,Ontario
      Country:
      Country
      There are lots of factors that could lead to a delay but Tesla learned a very valuable lesson with the Model X: do not rely on part suppliers, be prepared to make them yourself if necessary. Elon said they are prepared to do this to prevent delays. In many ways it's also a threat to suppliers: get your shit together or else.
       
      • Like Like x 3
      • Agree Agree x 1
      • Michael Russo

        Top-Contributor
        Moderator
        Expand Collapse

        Joined:
        Oct 15, 2016
        Messages:
        2,974
        Likes Received:
        1,671
        Trophy Points:
        113
        Gender:
        Male
        City & State/Province:
        Belgium now, SW France when my Model ≡ gets here
        Country:
        Country
        Agree, Trev, Elon knows how much is riding in this and I am convinced you're right about the right suppliers choices & expectation settings having been made!
        Besides, am I the only one that can't be totally impressed by a 46% success rate & average return of 6.3% for Jonas? ;)
         
        • Agree Agree x 1
        • Funny Funny x 1
        • AscendedSaiyan

          Active Member
          Expand Collapse

          Joined:
          Nov 6, 2016
          Messages:
          58
          Likes Received:
          20
          Trophy Points:
          8
          City & State/Province:
          Atlanta
          Elon did say he had back-up suppliers, in case of a supply issues.
           
          • Like Like x 3
          • Badback

            Valued Community Member
            Expand Collapse

            Joined:
            Apr 7, 2016
            Messages:
            1,020
            Likes Received:
            534
            Trophy Points:
            113
            Gender:
            Male
            City & State/Province:
            Prior Lake, MN
            Country:
            Country
            It would be normal to have multiple suppliers for parts and to avoid single source parts in the design. Another key strategy is to own the tooling for such things as molded, stamped, and cast parts so that they can be pulled from a non-performing supplier.

            So, no, a single supplier is not going to shut you down.
             
            • Like Like x 1
            • LUXMAN

              Active Member
              Expand Collapse

              Joined:
              Apr 4, 2016
              Messages:
              190
              Likes Received:
              69
              Trophy Points:
              28
              Gender:
              Male
              Occupation:
              Pilot
              City & State/Province:
              Texas
              In Part, he sounds like a cheerleader, but one that has been burned a little. That can really be seen when he says
              "our base case is for a launch in late 2018. We have taken this conservative approach to allow for the probability that Tesla will choose to prioritize the quality, cost, performance and lifesaving technology of the vehicle."
              So I think he gets it, but Elon does have a track record of being over optimistic with his timelines. If you read the biography of Musk by Ashlee Vance, it is replete with examples of this.
              I hope that this time, that is not the case. But I want this car to succeed and not have any problems develop that could hurt the brand image, especially with so many first time EV customers coming to the table.
               
              • Agree Agree x 2
              • Like Like x 1
              • BigBri

                Top-Contributor
                Expand Collapse

                Joined:
                Jul 16, 2016
                Messages:
                479
                Likes Received:
                360
                Trophy Points:
                63
                Gender:
                Male
                City & State/Province:
                Toronto, Ontario
                Country:
                Country
                I'm pretty optimistic as Tesla didn't try and raise more capital at the end of this year. All the analysts expected them to. If the 3 was looking to miss its deadline you'd think they'd be spending a lot of money trying to get things moving faster. Everything sounds to be on target.
                 
                • Like Like x 3
                • Agree Agree x 2
                • Optimistic Optimistic x 1

                Share This Page

                Model 3 Owners Club © 2017. All rights reserved.
                Model 3 Owners Club (M3OC) is an enthusiast club and is not affiliated with Tesla Motors or the Tesla Motors Club Forum (TMC).
                All Tesla logos are trademarks or registered trademarks of Tesla Motors.