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If your delivery estimation for Germany is before "End of 2018"...

Discussion in 'Germany' started by Konstantinos Kostis, Aug 9, 2017.

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  1. Konstantinos Kostis

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    ... please post it here. I know it's very early to create that thread, but I suppose it will not do any harm.
    When you post that information, please also post where and when you've made your reservation.
     
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    • Michael Russo

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      Indeed a long shot at this point, Konstantinos...
      Yet does not hurt to try. ;)
       
    • Dash

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      Nope, it's "Late 2018". So assuming that production until then will not go perfectly smooth, I think it's 2019, but hopes are up!
       
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      • Konstantinos Kostis

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        #4 Konstantinos Kostis, Aug 11, 2017
        Last edited: Aug 11, 2017
        I assume this is just a place holder until they know when they can do deliveries and they'll need some time to figure it out.
        After all any major production ramp up is tough. When they have figured it out and adjusted delivery estimates for German customers it would be really nice to read it (also here).

        My rough estimates based on limited projected production ramp up data is that they could produce 300000 Model 3 until the end of 2018. Since I did reserve during the reveal and until then there were "only" 115000 reservations at the time (perhaps including mine), I somehow expect them to deliver my car within the summer of 2018. That is if everything works rather smoothly. Let's wait and see.
         
      • Dash

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        Yeah, good luck on that. I needed some time to contemplate my moneys and I think at 4/4/16 there were already 300k to 400k reservations. So I guess 2019.
        But the masses are most likely in the US, so it's really hard to guess at which point the first German will have his/her car.
         
      • Michael Russo

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        Totally.
        Though I hope they'll make more than 300k next year although it is a reasonable projections, the summer is probably optimistic, Konstantinos, since T≡SLA will maximize US deliveries in 2018 to help with the federal tax credit. Late 3Q/early 4Q may be more likely, IMHO... ;)
        As stated above, trust by early 4Q, we can see the earliest EU deliveries... with a 4/4 reservation you may still be looking at a nice Christmas (or Sylvester?! :)) present, @Dash ... :rainbow:
         
      • Konstantinos Kostis

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        #7 Konstantinos Kostis, Aug 11, 2017
        Last edited: Aug 11, 2017
        Well, this is how my estimation of 300000 Model 3 built by the end of 2018 goes:

        [​IMG]
        Month Production Sum
        2017-07 50 50
        2017-08 100 150
        2017-09 1500 1650
        2017-10 2200 3850
        2017-11 3200 7050
        2017-12 5000 12050
        2018-01 6500 18550
        2018-02 8500 27050
        2018-03 11000 38050
        2018-04 14000 52050
        2018-05 17500 69550
        2018-06 21500 91050
        2018-07 26000 117050
        2018-08 31000 148050
        2018-09 36500 184550
        2018-10 38000 222550
        2018-11 40000 262550
        2018-12 41666 304216


        I know that I'm making quite a number of assumptions and taking some guesses but if all works well it may not be too far off. Numbers for 2017 are basically from the graph Tesla provided. The numbers for 2017-12 and 2018-12 were also provided by Tesla.

        Considering this July-August 2018 could be possible for my 2016-03-31 reservation (online).
        I won't have a nervous breakdown if it takes until Q4 (just will cry silently ;)).
         
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        • Model3_Swiss

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          Hi, I'm from switzerland and my reservation date is 31/03/2016.
          I was #3 in Bern.
          My delivery estimation for RN xyz made on March 31, 2016 is Late 2018.
          As for each europe early reservation.
          My hope is the same as yours but I think first Tesla has first the european registration things to do and then define the exactly delivery time schedule. Hope this registration goes faster than calculated and then we would have our Model 3 earlier.
           
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          • Michael Russo

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            Hi there, Swiss friend!
            Be sure all of us on this side of the water hope for the same! ;)
             
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            • Bieler11

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              How do you know that you are #3 in Bern? I might be number 2 or one ;)
              My reservation I made from another Model S holder, so I might will get it quicker.
               
            • Michel Zehnder

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              He was probably in-line in the store there I guess
               
            • Michel Zehnder

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              I doubt you'll get it <much> quicker, when they reach europe, their production output is already quite high
               
            • Michel Zehnder

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              I think your schedule is quite wrong. By december 2017, they already plan to be on 5000 units/week. This means 2018-01 should be >20'000 units, your estimate won't reach that for another 6 months...
               
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              • Michael Russo

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                Michel, based on Elon's quoted target, you are correct. The other unknown is how quickly in 2018 do they double that output to the target 10k a week and the real answer is we don't know. I am hoping by September yet it's just that... a hope... ;)
                 
              • Konstantinos Kostis

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                #15 Konstantinos Kostis, Sep 3, 2017
                Last edited: Sep 3, 2017
                You're right, I used the weekly quote as a monthly quote
                However, and the end of 2018 the plan is to produce 10000 cars per week, 20000 per week by the end of 2020. So here with still a lot of guesswork it looks like this:

                [​IMG]
                 
              • Michael Russo

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                Konstantinos, what you're showing is an almost linear progression, adding 2k/month each month in 2018. Another likely scenario would be monthly production increases in steps... e.g. 25k/month during 1Q, 30k during 2Q... etc... just as speculative I'll grant you that!! We'll just have to wait... for sure knowing when they reach 30k monthly output (i.e. 360k per year!) will be key to assess when EU deliveries can be expected! :)
                 
              • Konstantinos Kostis

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                I know it's not very S-curvy, but it will not add overly much for the total sum even if I adjusted that, at least no magnitudes.
                 
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