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July Surprise

Discussion in 'Rumour Mill' started by TrevP, Jun 18, 2017.

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  1. TrevP

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    My source, who's been very reliable in the past, has told me to "hold onto your hats" as things are about to start happening very soon and and fast.

    First, the source has indeed confirmed that the initial Model 3 configurator choices are colour and wheels. No details on what those consist of but we can assume the 5 colours we've seen so far and the 2-3 wheel styles. Those choices are slated to be in place for about "3 months" while production is ramped up.

    Secondly, the interior colour is to be black only during the initial phase. The wood trim found on the dash is real wood but species is unknown. The alcantara liner in the door panels is indeed making it to production. Was told the interior is very good, people are going to be happy with it. Think: fixing Model S deficiencies like door pockets, cup holder placements, arm rests, storage etc...

    The best bit: July is going to surprise a lot of people and especially Wall Street, as the production line is just about ready and will start production ASAP so that several THOUSAND Model 3s are produced and stockpiled for deliveries at the end of July. This confirms what the source relayed to me back in February, namely keeping configs simple so they could make preconfigured cars instead of relying on custom configs. Later on when production ramps up in the 4th quarter more options could be added to the mix.

    We may still get the token 5-6 on stage hand overs at the delivery event ceremony but Tesla is looking to really show the naysayers up this time. That's it for now
     
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    • garsh

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      Do you know what the story is going to be for people who want options that aren't initially available (like AWD and small battery). Will they simply have to postpone configuring their vehicles?
       
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      • Safe Daddy Driver

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        Hopefully the options that aren't immediately available would still be in the configurator. That way we could get an estimate of the additional delay time based on what options we select. Then it would just be a matter of discerning whether those options are worth the extra wait.
         
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        • 3Victoria

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          This sounds like a logical approach to getting up to speed. The projected production rate is still quite small through 3 months, at the bottom of the S-curve. So, if nèw choices are introduced at that point, the lack won't have affected many people.

          I am expecting a S/X refresh in July, likely to the interior, but maybe some tech.
           
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          • SoFlaModel3

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            #5 SoFlaModel3, Jun 18, 2017
            Last edited: Jun 18, 2017
            I must admit, I called you crazy and this a mistake at first, but surely enough not only were you right all along, it's the right plan all along.

            Before reading your post and just seeing the name of thread, it made me quickly think... well given how few choices there are at first and that the choices are "finishing" --- what if Tesla starts production asap?!?!

            Sure enough that's what you're confirming!

            I love it! I suspect some won't, but for the masses it does mean cars for everyone sooner rather than later.

            I suppose it's good that my top choice interior is black and that I want RWD. Can you say Model 3 this year!?!!??
             
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            • TrevP

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              The configurator is supposed to show all the options, available at launch or not, along with expected timelines. I don't know how it's going to work for sure but if it's anything like the Model X launch you can configure and confirm anytime you like. Production on the car will happen when it happens...
               
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              • TrevP

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                We've all been lulled into this sense that because Model S is mature that Tesla would have production all figured out but as we've seen, the Model X ramp was a very painful lesson for them. Elon is still kicking himself over that publicly.

                It's very obvious now, but the decision to go back to a simple approach like the Model S way back as I had reported is what they're doing. It's smart but at the expense of those who were expecting a fully baked car right out of the gate. Those people are, and are, going to be upset for sure but would you rather have them start production on time or face delays and be criticized by the media and investors??

                I'd rather the former as the end result is a more reliable car
                 
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                • Brush

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                  No info on the battery that is going to available at launch? I would assume they are going to go whatever the highest available will be to try and get the most profit, but it kind of sounds like they are trying to stick as close to the $35k price with a simple config.
                   
                • MelindaV

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                  My interpretation to the "pick color and wheel" is you choose the package (standard, premium, performance) like on the new/future S configuration and then have the choice of color and wheels. So really more like "pick your option model, color, wheels"
                   
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                  • Kbm3

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                    I think the fact that they are initially going to have alcantara and glass roofs indicates that the initial versions will not be the base models.
                     
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                    • TrevP

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                      I was told the bigger packs are first some time ago. Unless the plans have changed that's still the case.
                       
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                      • TrevP

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                        Everything will be there but it's only a certain config that's available right at launch namely the larger battery pack so essentially it's still chose a colour and wheel size
                         
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                        • TrevP

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                          I still don't have definitive info on the roof situation. My educated guess is only 1 to begin with.
                           
                        • SoFlaModel3

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                          Simple config doesn't mean lowest price. I'm guessing these early cars will end up closer to $50k.
                           
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                          • UncleT

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                            It's just my guess that Premium will be the only choice at first, and those wanting Standard or Performance will have wait.
                             
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                            • Safe Daddy Driver

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                              I don't quite remember the specifics... but when the Model X configurator first opened, picking the smaller battery option showed a delay of several months. If you wanted the car much sooner, you were forced to select a more expensive configuration, e.g. bigger battery, 7 seats, dual motor, etc.
                               
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                              • Brush

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                                What is your breakdown for pricing that gets you to $50k with these options? Just curious as adding in anything else would exceed that by a good amount then.

                                Elon did state that the average price would be around $42k so with a minimal selection of tires, color, and requiring the large battery at the start that would well exceed the average.
                                 
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                                • Brokedoc

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                                  It may be reasonable for him to release the Model 3 with 60kwh at first so they can produce more packs while still satisfying demand for current production lines. It seems like Elon is more interested in meeting volume at this early stage.

                                  Elon has already backpedaled on some of his initial statements about the model 3 like 100 configurations initially...
                                   
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                                  • Brush

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                                    I would agree that I think it makes more sense and also fits the agenda of them selling a $35k car at launch which would help with PR overall.

                                    Either way I am waiting for AWD so.
                                     
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                                    • John

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                                      I live in Northern California and I waited in line that morning, so it's tempting to "eat what's served" at launch and maybe see a car in November (I'm guessing I'm about 30K in line). But I'm interested in all the bells and whistles (especially the electronic and software variety), so I may just have to hold out. I'm also pretty practical, though, so the extent to which I include performance features will depend on cost. I'd love me some Ludi, but kinda hard to justify the price of an extra used car just for that.

                                      I bought some Tesla stock back in November, and it's worth about $100K now. But I'm imagining that when the configurator opens I'll check all of the boxes, look at the price tag, sigh heavily, and then start unclicking things. Even though the stock appreciation is "found money," there's a limit to what I should spend on myself for transportation. I guess.

                                      Right?
                                       
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