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MIT Study: EVs can meet drivers' needs enough to replace 90 percent of vehicles now on the road

Discussion in 'News from Electrek.co' started by minogully, Aug 17, 2016.

More threads by minogully
  1. minogully

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    A 4-year long MIT study has proven that EVs can meet the majority of the needs of drivers today. And this is assuming that they are using "today's" EVs and not any of the upcoming longer ranged EVs that are planned.

    Here's a quote from the article (which can be found here):

    "By working out formulas to integrate the different sets of information and thereby track one-second-resolution drive cycles, the MIT researchers were able to demonstrate that the daily energy requirements of some 90 percent of personal cars on the road in the U.S. could be met by today's EVs, with their current ranges, at an overall cost to their owners—including both purchase and operating costs—that would be no greater than that of conventional internal-combustion vehicles. The team looked at once-daily charging, at home or at work, in order to study the adoption potential given today's charging infrastructure."

    A link to the actual MIT study can be found in the above article.
     
  2. garsh

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    I hate these sorts of articles. I mean, sure, it's true. I used this line of thinking to replace my car with a Nissan Leaf. But I already had two cars, and decided that I would simply rely on my other car to handle the 10% of the driving that my Leaf can't do, and that works for me.

    But most people want to buy one car and have it handle everything. Showing them an article like this is just going to galvanize them against EVs. But this is where the Model 3 is going to work very well. It can handle 95% of your driving *more* conveniently than an ICE, since you never have to visit a gas station, or take it in for an oil change. For road trips, you have the inconvenience of the 30-minute supercharging stops, but at least it's free* instead of $50 to fill the tank.
     
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  3. MelindaV

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    I've only skimmed thru the article at this point, but interpreted the 90% as today's EVs could cover the needs of 90% of the vehicle owners/vehicles currently being driven. As in 9 out of 10 people would be ok going strictly to an EV 100% of the time. Not that 90% of each person's driving could be handled by an EV. So difference would be 1:10 an EV would not be practical vs 10:10 people would not be able to drive an EV 10% of the time.

    I also feel what Tesla is putting out in the world will work for most everyone 100% in markets they are in once the expected added SCs are up and running. Exception would be future markets (NZ for example)
     
  4. garsh

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    They actually seem to NOT be saying that it can handle 100% of driving for 90% of people. Especially with the methodology they used, I don't think they were even able to track individuals across an entire month, year, or (ideally) for the entire time a car was owned.

    It's too easy to out-drive a non-Tesla EV's range. If I want to run an extra errand or two before/after work, there are many times when I either cannot, or I need to plan ahead and drive the minivan to work. That kind of stuff happens to people fairly often (doctors appointments, pick up kids after school, stop at a store on the way home, etc.).
     
  5. BigBri

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    It's pretty promising that even though EVs are a newer technology that they're already so close to meeting 100% of needs. It's just a different beast. If there were only gas stations every 75 miles and your car told you the % of gas left you'd probably be anxious about range too. Smart gas stations will install chargers to get customers in buying food and drinks. They'll need it to offset gas sales declining.
     
  6. minogully

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    What I like about this study is that they could now take the same data and run it in reverse to find out what range is needed for 95% of the needs of the public, or for 98% of the needs of the public, or for 99.9% (I doubt we'd ever get to 100% since they were only counting charging while sleeping or at work).
     

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