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Model ≡ Market Position in Entry Luxury segment

Discussion in 'Rumour Mill' started by Michael Russo, Apr 7, 2017.

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  1. Michael Russo

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    Wow, so Model ≡ could actually be waaaay on top of the entry luxury segment at the end of its first full year of production already in the US?! Sing trumpets, sound the drums! ;)

     
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  2. Red Sage

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    Salim Morsy smokes crack and likes it a bit too much. Until mid-2015, BMW combined U.S. sales of both 3-Series and 4-Series. In 2014 that came to 142,232 units. Yes, the BMW 3-Series/4-Series outsold the Toyota Prius at 122,776 units that year. This was the second most cars in the 3-Series that BMW had sold in the past 15 years or so. In 2007 they sold slightly more, at 142,490 of 3-Series Sedans, Coupes, and Wagons. The 4-Series did not arrive until the 2013 model year.

    But BMW 3-Series sales have been steadily dropping in recent years. In 2016, sales dropped 25.5% from 2015, and below 90,000 units to 70,458 for the first time in 15 years. Even during 2009, a bad year for most automobile manufacturers in the wake of the 2008 financial collapse, BMW managed to sell 90,960 units of the 3-Series. And even 2015 Sales were only 94,527 units, though that may have been slightly lower without the 4-Series, but it was only the fourth time since 2002 that they didn't sell at least 100,000 units here.

    I submit that BMW's sales woes are due to the anticipation of Tesla Model ☰. They came in second place to the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, even though that car with only 77,167 units sold suffered a 10.4% loss compared to 2015. The C-Class, by comparison, has not sold over 90,000 units in any of the last 15 years. At this rate, combined sales of C-Class and 3-Series may well fall below 150,000 units in both 2017 and 2018. That will be an easy mark for the Tesla Model ☰ to surpass.
     
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  3. Michael Russo

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    Suppose some of you have seen this yet to be sure... Another encouraging sign when it comes to the sustainability of Model ≡ demand! :cool::rainbow:

     
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  4. Red Sage

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    This is true.
     
  5. garsh

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    My 14yo is already asking about being able to drive the Model 3 when he turns 16. :eek:

    I think I'll be hanging onto the Nissan Leaf for him to drive. :cool:
     
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  6. Red Sage

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    Will this be with a silent, unspoken contract, that if he doesn't manage to crack up the LEAF, or leave it stranded with a dead battery for a solid year, then he can drive you places in the Model ☰ with EAP engaged?
     
  7. Safe Daddy Driver

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  8. Daliman

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    My 15 yr old was not interested in getting his license. We test drove an S. He said awsome! Now he is getting his license. Should I tell him he can't drive my 3? I don't think a used leaf will quite be the same.
     
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  9. SoFlaModel3

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    I think the big question is how many cars a year do they produce and sell after they have worked through the back orders of reservation holders.

    I hope the popularity remains high, but I don't know if we can assume they will.
     
  10. garsh

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    They're positioning it against a BMW 3-series. It should end up with performance comparable to a 3-series. It's priced comparably, even without government incentives (which is pretty much a first for an EV - pricing on-par with an equivalent combustion vehicle). Perhaps the interior won't be viewed as being as nice, but that remains to be seen.

    BMW sells 100,000-140,000 3- and 4-series annually in the US over the last several years. Add another 150k-200k per year for Europe. So if the Model 3 really is competitive, there's no reason why it can't sell in similar quantities.
     
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  11. SoFlaModel3

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    You still need EV adoption by the masses that are used to going to the gas station on every corner.

    Don't get me wrong, I hope you're right. I hope people see the price point, design, safety, and purpose.
     
  12. garsh

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    Oh, I completely agree. It's not going to be an overnight success.

    However, Tesla is viewed as a desirable, luxury make right now, so it has a lot of appeal. This is the vehicle that's going to convince a nice chunk of the "unconverted" public to give EVs a try. And having more Teslas visible on the road will further raise brand awareness, and convince even more people to convert. It's going to snowball.

    Recall how quickly the world converted from horse-and-carriage to automobile.
     
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  13. SoFlaModel3

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    Great points. Seeing this car on the road will turn heads for sure!
     
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  14. MelindaV

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    I still turn my head at every Model S and X (and the very occasional Roadster) I see on the road around me. Can't wait to see so many more Model 3s there too.
     
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  15. Daliman

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    Surveys show that most people are still unaware of what EV tech will make possible in the next 2 yrs (or in July for the Model3). A very small % of the population has ridden in an EV. I think that 500000 model 3 owners taking friends and family for rides will be the tipping point that starts the S curve of demand going up. People wont ignore EVS once they actually feel in their gut how much better they are they will do the math and buy one. That I think is really exciting. All of that depends on auto makers planning to meet that demand and so far not enough are. Tesla, Nissan and a few European companies with the rest of the world buying from China.
     
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  16. Red Sage

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    My 23-year-old Nephew has been out of State for some time going to school. I was surprised he hadn't learned of the Tesla Model ☰ at all. Apparently, he and I haven't spoken about Tesla in a much longer while than I had thought... He absolutely loved the Model S when I showed that to him for the first time. And upon seeing the Model ☰, he was sold, especially once he learned the price. He currently drives an older Mercedes-Benz C-Class Coupe and truly loved the interior of Model ☰, especially the 'iPad' up front. Then I had to break the news to him about how many have Reserved ahead of him... What's really cool is that he goes by the nickname 'Tray', so the car will be perfect for him (though he would prefer a Coupe, as do I).
     
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  17. marcycharles3

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    I already have a waitlist of people wanting rides when mine comes in!
     
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  18. Badback

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    I'm not letting any piney woods mujiks dangle their participles all over my vegan seats or burp lutefisk fumes on my 15" display.

    They can get their EV information on CNN, eventually.
     
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