Model 3 production rumours I have

TrevP

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#1
I had a Skype conversation with someone a bit closer to Tesla than any of us and got a bit more information.

Please keep in mind this is not official or verified but third-hand information given to me.

This person spoke to some Tesla engineers while they were onsite and the gist for Model 3 production is as follows (again, this is a RUMOUR and I cannot verify it) :

  • Plans are to ramp Model 3 production as fast as possible once it begins to reach 5000 cars A WEEK!
  • Contrary to what Elon said initial production will be
  1. Big battery and rear wheel drive first
  2. 2 months later: big battery and dual motor drive
  3. 2 months later: everything else
  • Tesla has already made some initial body panel dies and stamped out several hundred panels (Michigan Tesla facility)
  • There is a Model 3 prototype with Ludicrous that was able to achieve 0-60mph in .... 2 SECONDS
  • Model 3 performance models are still expected to be in the low 3 second range
That's all I have at the moment but the consensus is that will be a killer car that will blow everyone away and that production is still on track for later this summer. The Fremont factory is indeed (confirmed by Tesla) halting Model S/X production for 10 days February 18th to install Model 3 production line tooling and they have a buffer of Model S/X to that deliveries are not significantly affected.
 

Steve C

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#2
  • Model 3 performance models are still expected to be in the low 3 second range
Was that info from your contact as well or your own assumption @TrevP ?
 

TrevP

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#3
Was that info from your contact as well or your own assumption @TrevP ?
Source said he agrees with my assumption when I asked. Didn't confirm it outright though.
 

Steve C

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#4
If I may, I'm thinking a 2.5s Model 3 ludicrous production version is very possible.
 

Dan Detweiler

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#5
If I may, I'm thinking a 2.5s Model 3 ludicrous production version is very possible.
I would think just about anything is POSSIBLE at this point. The question is whether it is practical and fits into the overall plan.

Dan
 

Steve C

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#6
I would think just about anything is POSSIBLE at this point. The question is whether it is practical and fits into the overall plan.

Dan
Yes... obviously true. And I think it is both practical and fits into the overall plan:cool:.
 

TrevP

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#7
My thinking is that the 2 second performance is in fact the "Maximum plaid" drivetrain being tested on the Model 3 platform for the new Roadster. Tesla had mentioned that the Roadster would possibly be built on the Model 3 platform.

I still stand that a Model 3 with Ludicrous should be able to achieve low 3 second 0-60 times.
 

Steve C

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#8
My thinking is that the 2 second performance is in fact the "Maximum plaid" drivetrain being tested on the Model 3 platform for the new Roadster. Tesla had mentioned that the Roadster would possibly be built on the Model 3 platform.

I still stand that a Model 3 with Ludicrous should be able to achieve low 3 second 0-60 times.
The roadster is still a ways off but I like your thinking @TrevP! I'll stand by my mid 2s for the Ludicrous 3 ;)
 

MelindaV

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#9
I find it hard to believe they would be a full 4 months into it before all battery/motor configurations are being built. At 5,000/week that puts 87,000 cars ahead of a single $35,000 version having a chance of being seen.

Until we actually see how things are coming out of Fremont, I still expect the regional (west to east then international then RHD) plan to be the primary factor. And expect to see prioritizing within each region of more expensive builds first, but not providing any California 'base' cars before moving onto the next delivery region will not go over well and will open up massive PR issues.
A specific part not being available may delay a configuration, but can't see that being a front motor since that is coming from inside Tesla.
 

Dan Detweiler

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#10
They are going to have to do what makes the best sense for the well being of the company. If this is how they need to do things to best make it work...so be it.

One thing that concerns me about this whole pre-reservation process is that we as reservationists have spent the last year doing nothing but speculating on what will be (me included). In many cases I fear that we have convinced ourselves that something will or won't happen. The end result may prove disappointing to our preconceived ideas of what the car "must" be. I hope this doesn't drive too many from the reality that this is going to be an amazing machine. I can only think of one thing that would keep me from this being my next vehicle, and that is if the price somehow skyrocketed for some unknown reason.

Dan
 

MelindaV

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#11
The end result may prove disappointing to our preconceived ideas of what the car "must" be. I hope this doesn't drive too many from the reality that this is going to be an amazing machine.
like people hearing there will not be a 100kWh battery and reading that as "it must then be a 95kWh battery".
THAT I think will be the big piece a number of people will be disappointed in because so many take speculation en mass as truth.
 

Kennethbokor

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#12
Correct all, I agree. Speculation is one thing, but until we have hard facts it's all still unclear. Good thing like Trevor reported is that Telsa is making progress towards the Model 3 goal. Actual configurations, colour choices and number of Model 3's that actually get built AND delivered this CY is still a big unknown - contrary to what Trevor's source speculates. There are still a number of challenges and things that can affect production start date and numbers.

I am 100% confident that Tesla will deliver Model 3's this year, as to how many and what configurations, that is still a guess. Hopefully the next reveal will provide more accurate data regarding the rollout plans and timing, at least what Tesla will be aiming for. Achieving that could be another issue.
 

Badback

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#13
Seems to me that Tesla can't plan what to build until they know what the reservationists want.
I would support a plan that allowed us to configure a car, with a commitment of cash, shortly after the last reveal.
This would give Tesla better information for production planning, more cash to work with, and give us some certainty about options and delivery.
 

Steve C

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#14
One thing that concerns me about this whole pre-reservation process is that we as reservationists have spent the last year doing nothing but speculating on what will be (me included). In many cases I fear that we have convinced ourselves that something will or won't happen. The end result may prove disappointing to our preconceived ideas of what the car "must" be. I hope this doesn't drive too many from the reality that this is going to be an amazing machine.

Dan
Well said @Dan Detweiler.

Although it's all I can do to get the time to pass. I still think I will be truly impressed with the reveal even without a P100D, retractable steering wheel, swivel seats and a 2s 0-60 time.

It's still going to blow me away and I just can't wait.

It will also be cool to look back at everyone's speculations and see how far we all were off.... or not.

(Ok, I'll be a little disappointed if there isn't a HUD)
 

pjfw8

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#15
They are going to have to do what makes the best sense for the well being of the company. If this is how they need to do things to best make it work...so be it.

One thing that concerns me about this whole pre-reservation process is that we as reservationists have spent the last year doing nothing but speculating on what will be (me included). In many cases I fear that we have convinced ourselves that something will or won't happen. The end result may prove disappointing to our preconceived ideas of what the car "must" be. I hope this doesn't drive too many from the reality that this is going to be an amazing machine. I can only think of one thing that would keep me from this being my next vehicle, and that is if the price somehow skyrocketed for some unknown reason.

Dan
How true! I personally have developed "Bigger is better" battery syndrome. My invitation to configure is the only cure. Even the next reveal will answer a few questions and raise even more.
 

Michael Russo

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#16
(...) Ok, I'll be a little disappointed if there isn't a HUD
Agree on all you said, @Steve C , including in that last sentence , me too!! Unless... there is super cool Augmented Reality, spaceship-like, radical HUD!! ;)
 

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#17
Since range is always the first question asked and the main concern for the general public and EV-ignorant car journalists, it seems logical to me that they will first produce big battery cars.

On the other hand it would also seem unsensible to not produce and test a certain number of base-model cars, which will sell for $ 35,000. Feeding journalistic controversy that Tesla is not keeping its word that the car will be $ 35k.

Glad to be not among the first and in Europe. By the time my car will be delivered I expect all kinks to be ironed out.
 

InElonWeTrust

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#18
I find it hard to believe they would be a full 4 months into it before all battery/motor configurations are being built. At 5,000/week that puts 87,000 cars ahead of a single $35,000 version having a chance of being seen.

Until we actually see how things are coming out of Fremont, I still expect the regional (west to east then international then RHD) plan to be the primary factor. And expect to see prioritizing within each region of more expensive builds first, but not providing any California 'base' cars before moving onto the next delivery region will not go over well and will open up massive PR issues.
A specific part not being available may delay a configuration, but can't see that being a front motor since that is coming from inside Tesla.
I agree 100%! Being that this is the first relatively affordable Tesla for many, not releasing some base model cars will upset many. It will give the anti Tesla trolls a reason to knock Tesla agin by saying' "see I told you it won't be $35k and see this is why the Bolt is a better and more affordable option". Of course this is not true because a more base model will be available, but the sooner the better. I myself want RWD base level with AP with battery being my secondary concern, so I am already worried.o_O
 

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#19
I'm just glad there will be a 2-wheel drive + big-battery option. The top S batteries are all-wheel-drive only.