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Model Y projected reveal & launch dates

Discussion in 'Speculation' started by Guy Weathersby, Dec 29, 2016.

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  1. Guy Weathersby

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    The article is interesting and I think matches mainstream thought on most topics, but I think is wrong about Model Y. My guess is no a Model Y launch, at least anything similar to the Model 3 reveal, is unlikely in 2017. They might show a concept car, but Tesla has eschewed this approach in the past. I fear that some folks who are desperate tor this car will regard me as an iconoclast, but I think that the Y is pretty far off in the future.

    Adding a new model on existing production lines is bound to disrupt production and so makes sense only is you have excess capacity. As long as Tesla has a backlog of reservations or orders for Model 3, I doubt if they will begin production of Y. The Reservation Counter website is currently estimating that current reservations will take until late first quarter 2019, but new reservations and orders will continue to come in.

    I would guess that the final reveal, early customer reactions, and test drives will generate more orders than the first reveal. So on the low end the assembly lines will be packed through 2019. If sales go well for the Model 3 it is very possible that Tesla will not catch up with orders until more factories come online.

    So I expect that Model Y production could start somewhere in 2020 or after. The reveal will probably be about 6 months before production.

    Just my guess, anybody have a better one?
     
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    • Michael Russo

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      @Guy Weathersby , to your point we are in the realm of guesses... Clearly Elon knows there's a lot of inherent market pull for Model Y (for which demand has been estimated at 1M cars/year) yet I have got to believe the absolute priority at T≡SLA right now and for months to come has got to be to get Model ≡ ready for a timely launch soonest in 2H17 then get production rates up to the 400k/year level asap !
      IMHO, once this is done - optimistically in 1Q18, attention could be diverted to Model Y... so you could see a reveal before mid-2018 and start of production 12-18 months later, to the extent Fremont can handle that by then...
      It also depends how sales of Model ≡ will evolve after launch & how quickly production can be partially moved to the Gigafactory 2 in EU though I would not expect that in a big way before 2020...
      But, who am I and what do I know? :p
       
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      • Dan Detweiler

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        Link to the article in question?

        Thanks,

        Dan
         
      • Michael Russo

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        • Dan Detweiler

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          Thanks!

          Dan
           
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          • Guy Weathersby

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            Hi Michael, thanks for posting the link my message was a bit cryptic without the context. I certainly agree that my post is speculation and this is a better place for it.
             
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            • Guy Weathersby

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              I totally agree. I think that I used the term "guess" a couple of times.

              I think that the most speculative question is how far before production the reveal might occur. In the case of an established company we can look at history and say "they usually announce X months in advance." But with Tesla there is little history. I think that everyone agrees that the 3+ year gap for the Model X was unplanned and, in retrospect, an imbaresing mistake. The 18 month notice for the Model 3, to my mind was based on special circumstances. First they had to show doubters that people really were interested and there was enough cool new stuff to justify multiple major announcements. I think that, between the Model three demand and Model X sales, there is plenty of interest in the Model Y and, although I am sure that it will have some splashy new features, I doubt if it will justify multiple reveals.

              So I am going to stick with my guess of reveal about 6 months before production.
               
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              • Michael Russo

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                Ok... question will remain... for a while... when will that reveal be... ;) I think we both see it later than 2017... :)
                 
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                • BigBri

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                  I suspect they don't want to have another case of the Model X where the reveal is years before delivery. With the production capabilities increasing I'd suspect we'll see a 2018 reveal and deliveries later in the year. Good 9~ months of full volume production on the 3 and they should have the necessary knowledge and capital to get going.
                   
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                  • Guy Weathersby

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                    Since we are into speculation, my hunch is that starting in 2017 Tesla will announce one or two new a year for several years.
                    Europe, China (super speculative since under Trump relations with China could get really dicey), other Asia, Eastern US...

                    Of course that will not help for several years.
                     
                  • Jayc

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                    #11 Jayc, Dec 30, 2016
                    Last edited: Dec 30, 2016
                    Since everyone is in speculation mode, might as well throw-in my 2 cents...

                    I think Model Y will be a product of v2 gigafactory/machine-that-builds-machines.

                    I think they will wait till production stabilize close to peak at Fremont to announce v2 machine-that-builds-machines and further expansion of production to elsewhere.

                    I think they will wait till they announce expansion of production to reveal Model Y which IMO could be as late as 2019 or thereabouts.

                    I think at the next production facility and with v2 machine-that-builds-machine, it will take less time to ramp-up production so reveal-to-production will be less than for Model 3 so the first Model Y deliveries might also happen in 2019.
                     
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                    • MichelT3

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                      Okay, mine:
                      1. A short time between introduction and deliveries of Model Y seems logical. There is no need to create a market anymore. 6 months seems enough. There are people who prefer a Model Y over a Model 3, but they already know it's coming. So they either buy a 3 or will wait for Y, or do both. For Tesla this isn't important, they are currently selling more cars than they can build. This situation will exist for a number of years at least. Tesla really has no serious competitor until 2025 if we include Autonomous Driving. A cheaper non-Tesla could find a market, but will hardly take a cut from the number of Tesla's sold, because the quality is much less.
                      2. Shortage in production capacity is the main blockage for increasing the number of models. Although the 3 and Y most probably will be built on the same platform, so can be built on the same production line, the added complexity of extra parts and different setup of the production line will lead to less numbers produced, which is against the interests of Tesla.
                      3. Model 3 will probably be such a huge success, that Tesla needs all its production capacity for a longer time to put those on the road. Currently there are between 350 and 400,000 reserved, which could easily increase to 1,000,000 in one year's time, after the next presentation and when first cars are received favourably. The market for Model 3 will be huge. Which is my expectation, but of course an uncertainty.
                      4. Gigafactory 1 is still just partly built and won't be completed till 2020. Combined with the expansion of Fremont, it's completely needed to get to 500,000 cars produced yearly from 2018 on.
                      5. Increased production capacity of batteries and cars won't be realised till Gigafactory 2 in Europe is at least 25 % under way. Which I don't expect before 2020. Building and environmental regulations in the EU are strict. Even if the decision where to build it is made beginning 2017, it will take at least 3 years to get to the point that car and battery production can begin.
                      6. Argument pro sooner launch of Y is that the more different models are put into the market, the more BEV cars will be sold in total. Which is what Elon Musk aims for, to transfer from ICE to BEV. However this argument won't work as long as the second argument still plays.
                      Conclusion: Based on 1 Mil. Model 3 cars ordered by the end of 2017, Tesla's production capacity of 500,000 cars (including S and X) will be blocked till the end of 2019, or even into 2020 depending on the number of S and X sold. Which doesn't make it logical to start building the Y before the beginning of 2020. Launch in September of 2019.

                      But in the end, the above is also just a lot of guesswork. We will know it when we know it.
                       
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                      • pjfw8

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                        That is why I will lease a 3 and consider a Y when the lease is done. My 2021 Y will charge in 10 minutes and have a 375 mile range!
                         
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                        • Steve C

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                          With the Model 3 reservations into the 600k to 800k's (likely) and the Model 3 final reveal coming soon, I think the Model Y will have as many if not more reservations as the Model 3. People won't screw around with their deposit. Look for record breaking pre-reveal reservations and a stock price jump to go along with it.
                           
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                          • Safe Daddy Driver

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                            I reserved a Model 3, though I'd prefer the Model Y because I've already waited several years (since 2008?) to own a Tesla and can't wait to grab the first new one I can afford.

                            I wouldn't mind if Tesla introduced the prototype Y alongside the 3 at the final reveal (on March 31, 2017?). That would be my selfish, unadulterated wishful thinking. Would make a cruel April fools joke, actually.
                             
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                            • 11thIndian

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                              #16 11thIndian, Jan 19, 2017
                              Last edited: Jan 19, 2017
                              Hey Everyone. New to the forums. And since we don't have anything solid on the Model Y front, I guess this is how I'll get my fix for now.

                              If I had it to do over again, I probably would have put down a deposit on a Model 3- but I think that ship has sailed for me, as I'm hoping that by the time you can order and get a Model 3 in a reasonable time-frame, we'll have had a Model Y announcement of some sort- hopefully a reveal/reservation event sometime later this year or early in 2018.

                              I don't have a particular theory with regards to the Model Y release window, but I'll repost something I wrote elsewhere about the forces that may be driving those decisions within Tesla.

                              ...

                              It seems to me there are two equally competing market forces likely pushing/pulling inside Tesla regarding the launch of the Model Y.

                              First, internally, is the want to fill demand for the Model 3. Whatever reservation numbers they were actually expecting, it's clear that demand for the Model 3 surprised Tesla as much as it did everyone else. Reports "seem" to indicate that Model Y was/is actually far along in the development process, so the question is, what was the original rollout plan for the MY pre-M3 reservation avalanche.

                              Second, externally, the upcoming lineup of cSUV competitors from the likes of Audi, VW, Jaguar, and BMW which at present are due to roll out as soon as 2019. Elon has said he's happy to see the competition embracing EVs, but as a publicly traded company, Tesla needs to act in it's own best interest. That being the case- how important is it for Tesla to get to market, or at the very least show it's hand with regards to unveiling the Model Y to "lock in" customers with reservations and capture mindshare that the MY is the next car they want to buy- especially if word of mouth around Model 3 is strong as it launches later this year.


                              So how does Tesla weigh meeting demand for an existing product with moving their lineup forward? If we take it for granted for a minute that the Model 3 and Model Y were developed to share parts and manufacturing, and that the Y is fairly far along it's development path- can or should Tesla sit on a Model Y release (especially one they've already said they know will have high demand) until it can reach an equilibrium with Model 3 production in 2019/2020? If Model 3 orders continue to be strong after the next event, and then once the cars are on the road- do the just keep pushing back Model Y production?

                              If the roles were reversed, and it was the Model Y that was going to be manufactured in 2017 and the Model 3 that was waiting in the wings, I'm sure I'd be inclined to say as a reservation holder, "Whatever gets me my car sooner!". So I certainly understand M3 people not wanting the Y to impact the rollout.

                              As someone who does have his sights set firmly on a Model Y- I guess I'd just say I'd be happy if they unveiled the car this year. At least then I can obsess properly over what I'll be waiting 2-3 years for. ;)
                               
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                              • Steve C

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                                Luckily I was able to read your post on my phone. It was mostly invisible here.

                                My two cents is this..... I tend to agree with most of what you said. Is it possible that at the final reveal he releases both the 3 and the Y? Probably not, but wouldn't that be crazy?! If you are a 3 reservation holder, you get to pick... the 3 or Y :cool:

                                At the very least I truly believe that there will be the first reveal of the Model Y at some point this year. Probably the fall. Also on the list for a reveal is the Tesla Pickup Truck and Semi. I also believe they will happen at some point later this year. That does seem like a lot to bite off. Jeez.... I've never written it down and looked at it.

                                That's my 2 cents.
                                 
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                                • 11thIndian

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                                  Thanks. I think I fixed the display errors.

                                  Yeah, on one hand we have Elon saying that the next production priority after the Model 3 is the Model Y, and on the other hand we have him saying that both the semi and commuter concept will be unveiled this year. (BTW, I don't think there are are any plans to unveil the Pickup- that was only mentioned as part of the Master Plan Part Deux)

                                  So you could almost assume that we'd have to get a Model Y reveal this year based on those two statements- but of course if we assume....

                                  I'm going to keep my attitude pessimistic for my own sanity and say we get a reveal late this year or early next, after the Model 3s are flowing out to customers. If anything happens sooner- well that would be swell.
                                   
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                                  • Steve C

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                                    I did forget about the commuter concept. All very exciting!!
                                     
                                  • MichelT3

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                                    I think this is much too optimistic time wise. Production capacity is limited, demand for Model 3 alone is huge.
                                    If Model 3 is successful, production capacity will be filled to the brim till the second Gigafactory in Europe is built.
                                    This is all production till the beginning of 2019, for the current roughly 500,000 reservations for Model 3. If the next launch and the first deliveries are successful - and especially if full autodrive at the end of 2018 will be a success - I expect reservations will easily escalate to 1 million. Filling production well into 2020. (Don't forget something in the order of 100,000 Model S and X yearly also need to be produced.)
                                    So, why launch other models soon, when that will only lead to people being disappointed because they need to stand longer in line? My estimate is that Model Y won't be launched till the fall of 2019, at the earliest coming into production in 2020.
                                    Gigafactory-2 in Europe won't get ready for production before 2020 either. That's no solution in the short run either.
                                    So, the other models will certainly not come into the market sooner than in 2020's.
                                    Do the numbers: you know how many are reserved and that total production capacity of Fremont is 500,000...
                                     
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