Model Y reservations may be much later than March 2019

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John

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#1
According to an investor fireside chat in London, Tesla may change things up and wait until closer to production to open reservations for Model Y. We were expecting a reveal and reservations in March, but since production is probably 2020 that would mean just a reveal in March, if anything.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3414607-tesla-expect-dial-capital-raise
 
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#2
Or could it be that the Model Y may be further along than anticipated? Remember the clay model from a couple of years ago that was sitting right next to the veiled Model 3?

Also, bear in mind that Elon had already approved the production of Model Y prototypes about a month ago.
 

John

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#3
I think the push for profitability and the layoff that they did may have slowed things, actually. Though there was never really an official timeline, just some vague estimates.

From the Q3 earnings call in October 2018:

Musk: "So we've made significant progress on the Model Y. So in fact, I approved the prototype to into production recently. We saw - it will be 2020 before that's in volume production."
 

garsh

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#4
Or could it be that the Model Y may be further along than anticipated? Remember the clay model from a couple of years ago that was sitting right next to the veiled Model 3?
Also remember that later, during the Q2 2017 earnings call, Elon said that Tesla’s executive team brought him back from the “cliffs of insanity”. Adding, “after talking to my executive team, the Model Y will use a significant amount of Model 3 components.”

So, even in late 2017, Tesla was still deciding on a basic chassis configuration for the Model Y. That suggests that they didn't get much farther past the "clay model" stage before shelving it to concentrate on the Model 3.

Reference
 

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#5
Here is a "I heard from a guy who heard from a guy..." addition (grains of salt and all that):

One of the Rangers that's been out to work on my car has been with Tesla since Roadster days. He went through orientation and is friends with a guy who has risen within the company. According to the Ranger, when he talked with this guy about the Y he was told...
"You wouldn't believe how far along we are already on the Y."

That was in September when the Ranger was out for my headlight replacement. So... there's that.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#6
That report is from Seeking Alpha so take it with a grain of salt...

I imagine having reservations before production is a nice thing to confirm you’ve done the right thing.
 
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#7
Also remember that later, during the Q2 2017 earnings call, Elon said that Tesla’s executive team brought him back from the “cliffs of insanity”. Adding, “after talking to my executive team, the Model Y will use a significant amount of Model 3 components.”

So, even in late 2017, Tesla was still deciding on a basic chassis configuration for the Model Y. That suggests that they didn't get much farther past the "clay model" stage before shelving it to concentrate on the Model 3.

Reference
That’s yet another reason why I believe the Model Y is almost here: use the same Model 3 platform and thus spend zero chassis rearchitecture time.

Not looking forward to the 12V lead acid battery requirement, however. But quite excited to see the timeline moved up, hopefully! Pure speculation here.
 

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#8
IMO Tesla has to get the Y out ASAP. Competition is starting to come online and there will be a lot in 2020, and the Y is what they will need to blow them all away as the industry is starting to laugh off all car production vs SUVs. the X is just too expensive and inefficient.
 
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#9
Is it just me or is Tesla’s delivery timeline unrealistically aggressive? Unless there’s significant progress with the dreadnought manufacturing engine...

If “Priority list is Model Y, solar roof tiles, pickup, semi, Roadster” with the Roadster starting production in 2020, that gives only 2 years or so to accomplish all of the above. Even doubling the timeline at 4 years seems extremely difficult. Is Elon being overly optimistic again?
 
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#10
That’s yet another reason why I believe the Model Y is almost here: use the same Model 3 platform and thus spend zero chassis rearchitecture time.

Not looking forward to the 12V lead acid battery requirement, however. But quite excited to see the timeline moved up, hopefully! Pure speculation here.
According to our last info on the matter at least some of the electrical innovations they originally planned for the new archetecture ARE still making their way into the Model Y. Here's the quote from the August earnings call in response to a question about whether the wiring harness improvements would still be in the Model Y,

"We’re going to aim for maximum carryover, but that’s one of the things we would include. We would aim to switch out the 1.5 km of wiring harness for a redundant flex circuit that’s more in the order of 100 meters or so. And we’d aim to do that both for the Y, if it’s called the Y…. and the 3 as well."

It wasn't specifically mentioned, but maybe the elimination of the 12V battery is still happening as well... I guess we'll have to wait and see.


Priority list is Model Y, solar roof tiles, pickup, semi, Roadster” with the Roadster starting production in 2020, that gives only 2 years or so to accomplish all of the above. Even doubling the timeline at 4 years seems extremely difficult. Is Elon being overly optimistic again?.
Don't forget that's a capital resource priority list, not a production priority list.
 

iChris93

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#11
IMO Tesla has to get the Y out ASAP. Competition is starting to come online and there will be a lot in 2020, and the Y is what they will need to blow them all away as the industry is starting to laugh off all car production vs SUVs. the X is just too expensive and inefficient.
Isn’t the X still more efficient than the upcoming e-tron?
 

JWardell

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#16
Do you mean the i-Pace? If so, yes it is. That's how pathetic Jaguar's offering is.
And yet the I-Pace is continuously reviewed as "better than Tesla" because they keep comparing to the Model X. Despite the fact that the X is twice the size and seats many more. Considering its embarrassing lack of storage, the I-Pace should be compared to the Model 3. And it can't hold a candle. But the media will always compare a small SUV to another SUV, never a car. Hopefully Model Y announcement/specs will wake them up
 
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#18
Model 3 timeline:
Reveal 4/2016
"Pencils down" on Model 3 07/2016
First Handovers 7/2017
1st "real customer" deliveries early 2018
volume production 2nd half 2018

So if we are already past the 'Pencils down' point on the Model Y timeline, doesn't that imply that they ALREADY have pushed a reveal back compared to the Model 3 timeline? And if so, following a Mar 2019 reveal couldn't first handovers conceivably come at the end of 2019, with "real customers" ('volume production') taking delivery in mid-2nd half of 2020?
 
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#19
Model 3 timeline:
Reveal 4/2016
"Pencils down" on Model 3 07/2016
First Handovers 7/2017
1st "real customer" deliveries early 2018
volume production 2nd half 2018

So if we are already past the 'Pencils down' point on the Model Y timeline, doesn't that imply that they ALREADY have pushed a reveal back compared to the Model 3 timeline? And if so, following a Mar 2019 reveal couldn't first handovers conceivably come at the end of 2019, with "real customers" ('volume production') taking delivery in mid-2nd half of 2020?
I would assume that “pencils down” will be after the reveal in March, if needed.