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New price estimator - 'Model ☰ Guesstimator'

Discussion in 'Rumour Mill' started by MelindaV, Jan 28, 2017.

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  1. MelindaV

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    Nystrom on TMC has created a new Model ☰ price estimator ($USD), Model ☰ Guesstimator for your enjoyment in guessing what your vehicle may cost. Thread on TMC is here.


    My expected configuration came in higher ($52,350) than using the model3tracker estimator ($47, 600) which I had previously said I thought was a little on the low side.
    Here's what I included on both estimators:
    • 55D (or whatever standard battery size is)
    • Multi-coat paint
    • Leather
    • Glass roof
    • Premium interior
    • Enhanced Autopilot
    • Smart Air Suspension
     
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    • Trail Runner

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      My estimate is right about what I want to spend, $62-63,000 as a maximum amount. Hopefully this estimator will be the most accurate to the real pricing of options but I won't get my hopes up too much.
      • 85D (or whatever largest battery size is)
      • Silver Metallic paint
      • Vegan seats
      • Glass roof
      • Winter package
      • Ultra HiFi
      • Autopilot
      • Smart Air Suspension
      • Towing Package
       
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      • garsh

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        Heh. Maxed out config is $102,785.
        That feels high to me, but we'll see.
         
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        • Michael Russo

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          Thanks, @MelindaV ... Though none of this is guaranteed, it is exciting to start to 'play' with these.... a bit harder for us in Europe of course, with uncertainty on forex + we need to factor in ~20%...
          So... With the 55D & my essential options, I'd get to $45,125, or €51k before incentives, @ current x-rate of $1.07/€, and 21% VAT...
          Might be just under my budget of €45k, if the €7k French incentives still apply by the time of delivery... :rainbow: Not much wiggle room though, unless the forex becomes more attractive for EU (i.e. stronger Euro...) within two years... Cristal ball stuff!

          One last thing, still counting on a better (EPA) range than 210 miles for the base battery... :)

          IMG_3689.PNG
           
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          • MichelT3

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            Yes, exchange rates and taxes make it extra uncertain for us in Europe. Plus possible increased import tariffs, due to new trade walls being put up between the US and EU, as a result of international politics... :rolleyes:

            For the configuration that I like this estimator comes to $ 55,500. Luckily as a professional I can deduct the 21 % VAT that's added, if my earnings are high enough.
            And in the next 5 years I can deduct the investment from my income.
            So I hope I will be able to pay for the configuration that I want... :)
             
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            • GDinATL

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              Maybe in the right range. No bigger battery?!?
               
            • GDinATL

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              Do you really think they will put in a smaller battery than the Bolt? I can't imagine Elon will end up with a car with a range less than the Bolt....
               
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              • MelindaV

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                I personally don't need added range over the minimum Tesla has already said would be the starting point, so would rather spend my $ on other things. As far as what the minimum is, we don't know. It was already implied last year it would be less than 60kWh. I have no doubt Tesla will easily be able to top GMs range of 238 at their 60kWh battery with something less than 60kWh though.
                Not all 60kWh (or 55kWh) batteries are equal in the range they can go. The Model ☰ hands down will have better drag coefficient than the Bolt remember too.
                 
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                • Michael Russo

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                  @MichelT3 & all other European compatriots here, I sincerely hope it does not get to that... and not just for T≡SLA imports!
                  In addition, at some point, though not for current reservation holders, Elon will have the cars made 'here'... :)
                   
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                  • Badback

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                    I prefer to use alternative facts. Consequently, my ≡ will cost exactly how much I have. Maybe a little more.
                     
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                    • MichelT3

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                      Tesla cars made in the EU will take at least till 2020 in my opinion.
                      As far as I can see the probability of trade walls increases by the day. At this moment too many people don't see yet that those walls will work both ways. We just have to hope that EV's will be exempted from import tariffs. Or that in less than 2 years those walls will have toppled, because it quickly has become apparent how stupid they are.
                       
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                      • GDinATL

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                        My budget is $50k for this car -- I'd like to get what I can for that -- hopefully the options will not be ridiculously priced. I do no need the insane mode, cold weather package or glass roof -- but i'd like to get as many of the others as I can. I still wonder if Tesla will "round up" to 60 on their battery (say nominal 60 but really be 57-58 - which should get it passed the Bolt). Also another thing to consider is they plan on using this platform for the Model Y which will not have the same aerodynamics.......thus a 55 kWh will be less than the Bolt due to similar drag (which would not be acceptable). IMHO......
                         
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                        • xxZULAxx

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                          I took a look at this and found it to be completely unrealistic for majority of items and prices. It mentions starting battery at 200 miles, but if 35k Model 3 comes below Bolt's range I will be disappointed.
                           
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                          • GDinATL

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                            Agree! give me >238!!!
                             
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                            • PRSIST

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                              Whether these numbers accurate or not, it is fun to guesstimate what my Model 3 would cost.

                              I think the the 55's will not happen. Tesla is not going to put the Model 3 on the street with less base mileage than the Chevy Bolt so I can't even build my phantom car using those. I would have to start with the 70's which means the base price for the Model 3 will not be $35,000. Since the Bolt is 238 miles for the BASE model, Tesla must meet or beat it at Tesla's stated $35,000 base price. I have supported Tesla over a lot of controversy from friends and family, so I hope they don't make a liar out of me.

                              My config was:
                              '70 (40,000 USD, Range 260 miles) this was picked solely because of the range
                              Metallic paint ($750 USD) because I want a silver 3
                              Glass roof ($1,125 USD) because, heck, might as well go the whole mile
                              18" standard whells (0 USD) got to save some $$$ somewhere
                              Premium seats ($2,475 USD) It's not stated but I am assuming this means leather seats which is what I wan
                              NO Autopilot - I'm 68 years old and if I've driven a car this long I don't need a computer to drive for me
                              NO premium package - don't know what it is??
                              NO air suspension - would love this but need to stay within a budget
                              Ultra HiFi ($1,875 USD, Stereo) One hell of a lot of money to get the SeriusXM Radio that I want for road trips
                              NO winter package - live in Arizona
                              NO towing package

                              Total cost: $50,025
                              Options: $6,225

                              This is my "Must haves". If I could swing $2,500 for Air Suspension and find out if the Premium Package is worth $2,625, then I might consider adding those.

                              Thank you for the estimator! It is always fun to speculate. I hope you consider adding to the estimator if things change.
                               
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                              • GDinATL

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                                Hopefully the price of these upgrades are much lower than for the S and X. Components are a lot cheaper when you buy 500k versus 50k.....
                                 
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                                • Guy Weathersby

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                                  In addition to the higher quantity, the parts are probably designed or selected for lower prices, and the higher price elasticity should all make the prices lower than S/X. Wild guess is most will average about 60% of the S/X price.
                                   
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                                  • Red Sage

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                                    Indeed. The BYD E6 supposedly has an 85 kWh battery pack, but its EPA rated range is rather pitiful compared to the Tesla Model S 85:

                                    http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=37800&id=35980
                                     
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                                    • Michael Russo

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                                      Funny, @Red Sage , there you are writing about the relative inefficient BYD e6 85kWh battery... and here is what pops up on my Google suggested articles... ;)
                                      http://www.hybridcars.com/byd-is-us-epa-certifying-its-2017-e6-electric-car/
                                      Hate to say this, yet, in addition, can't they design these in a somewhat less seventyish way @ BYD? :rolleyes:
                                       
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                                      • TheTeslaFan

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                                        I feel like 80k base for the max performance version seems a bit high; I'd think closer to 55-60 to keep it hyper competitive and in line with the high volume lower margin pricing I think Tesla is going for.
                                         
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