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Official Delivery Event Thread

Discussion in 'Model 3 Reveal' started by TrevP, Jul 6, 2017.

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  1. TrevP

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    Now that we the official date of July 28th for the delivery event we should discuss what to expect here and the events and happenings leading up to it.

    If history repeats itself as with the Model X delivery event of September 29 2015, we might see the official event invitations go out about a week PRIOR to the event. This won't leave much time for invitees to be making flight and accommodation plans. Maybe Tesla will learn a bit from the last launch. I heard they ran out of food at the Model X launch as they had over 3000 people attend it. Booze however was plentiful.

    Event though Elon mentioned the delivery event will be "at the factory" the Model X launch was actually held in a facility down the road from the factory at 901 Page Ave in Fremont. This was in a newly leased facility at the time. Press were invited during the day for test drives in a cordoned off area of the facility, the public event wasn't held until late in the evening. Only the Model S launch was held at the factory given it was still pretty empty at the time in 2012.

    So it will be interesting to see where exactly the Model 3 launch will happen. If anyone is in the Fremont area closer to the event date it might pay to take a drive around Kato Rd or Page ave and see if anything is going on around there. Tesla has 2-3 facilities in that area they occupy.
     
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    • bluesolarflare

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      @TrevP, who usually gets invited to these events besides press? Is it mostly a lottery of Current Model S/X owners or do you think they will randomly select a few people who reserved the Model 3?
       
    • ModFather

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      BSF, there is a rumor the reveal will be at the Tesla Design Center in Hawthorne. Wanna carpool?
       
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      • SoFlaModel3

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        I will be there in spirit watching from home.
         
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        • JWardell

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          I sure hope it will be live streamed.
           
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          • TrevP

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            In the past it was the first deposit holders (Signature series). Given Model 3 has no signature series it could be done via lottery just like the Model 3 reveal event was. We know the last referral program had a prize of a ticket to the Model 3 delivery event.

            They usually are.
             
          • SoFlaModel3

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            There is no way it's not live streamed.
             
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            • Michael Russo

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              SFM3, why so affirmative? o_O
               
            • SoFlaModel3

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              Tesla doesn't advertise, so they never miss a chance to make an event into a grand spectacle.
               
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              • Michael Russo

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                Ok... o_O
                 
              • KennethK

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                And there are 400,000 other reasons!
                 
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                • MelindaV

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                  I'm looking forward to them announcing the actual number of reservations!
                  While we all have been saying 400k reservations, I think in reality it is significantly higher. Tesla officially announced 373k on May 15, 2016. I am assuming most of those 373k reservations were people already quite familiar with Tesla and had been waiting on the Model 3. Now especially considering the Model 3 coverage didn't really feel like it was hitting main stream news/media until 6 months or so ago, so am sure there has been a huge uptake in reservations this year from those that were not previously familiar/interested in Tesla until seeing all the hype its anticipation has created.
                  I'd guess in the total is in the 600k-$700k range.
                   
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                  • TrevP

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                    I don't think they're ever going to tell us the actual number. They seem very adamant on not revealing it lest it be read the wrong way.
                     
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                    • Daliman

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                      Tesla has been building to this moment since it was founded. There is no way it won't be streamed, it is actually a potential turning point in one of the worlds largest industries. I am sure we get the specs., I hope the confiurator goes live. I hope Trev gets to go and take a ride, that would be very informative.

                      The reservation number I'm torn. If they feel they need money I think they will announce it. Half a million seems conservative. If they want to build sales, and they do but of the S and X then they might not.
                       
                    • Michael Russo

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                      I think they will reveal once they are much further along the way on ramp-up so projected delivery time of most recent 'joiners' would be clearer.
                      Melinda, am totally with you, certainly somewhere the lower portion of this range. I continue to be amazed when I read folks telling us they have just reserved & expect their Model ≡ mid- to 3Q18!! :rolleyes:
                      Maybe they forgot that Elon said last October they were essentially sold out until YE18... and/or believe total reservation # froze at the early 4Q16 level?! :D
                       
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                      • SoFlaModel3

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                        There is a good explanation for that. Tesla is telling them ;)

                        Go to https://www.tesla.com/model3

                        Scroll down just beneath the price.

                        "Delivery estimate for new reservations is mid 2018 or later"

                        I think they're missing the "or later" part ;)
                         
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                        • Jean Théoret

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                          Absolutely, but there is a BUT, we don't know the pace of new reservations and when Tesla will produce the M3 at the max pace +- 40K cars a month. Quite hard to guess when we all going to get our M3. Specialy those of us that reserved later then sooner.:(
                           
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                          • SoFlaModel3

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                            Oh I agree with you 100%. I'm just saying that someone placing a new reservation today is looking on the site right before they click reserve and gets the sense that their car is ~11 months away.
                             
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                            • Jean Théoret

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                              Oh yes!

                              My guess is that Tesla have a to big backlog to give us the real time frame. It would surely discourage lots of us seeing the right time frame of the delevery of our M3...
                               
                            • SoFlaModel3

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                              Think about it this way...

                              Say there are 500,000 cars in the backlog.

                              For the sake of example let's assume they all convert to orders.

                              This year the consensus is somewhere between 30,000-50,000 cars produced. Let's split the difference and say 40,000 cars produced.

                              Backlog is down to 460,000 cars.

                              Now let's say they keep producing at a rate of 20,000 cars a month.

                              Simple math says it's another 23 months to clear out the backlog.

                              Obviously they intend to scale up to 40,000 cars a month from what we've heard before.

                              1) That won't happen over night
                              2) Even if it did happen over night there is still 11.5 months of backlog left as of January 1.

                              The happiest of happy paths would suggest a reservation placed today gets delivered in December 2018. The realist suggest somewhere between Q1-Q2 of 2019.

                              Meanwhile once the car hits the road people are going to fall in love and more reservations will pour in.
                               
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