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Ontario Environment Plan

Discussion in 'Reserving, Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Daliman, May 16, 2016.

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  1. Daliman

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    The Globe and Mail is reporting on the Ontario Governments draft proposal to deal with climate change. As this is still a proposal and not funded legislation it may not be enacted in this fashion. There are several issues addressed which are important to EV buyers. It appears the EV tax credit is a long term policy. I have attached the article, clearly if approved this would be a massive step towards sustainable energy production and transport.

    • The plan is to raise the number of EV's on the road in Ontario to increase EV sales to at least 12 % in the next nine years by providing 285,000,000 for EV incentives. The current maximum of 14,000 per vehicle and 1,000 per charger is mentioned.
    • 3.8 billion to retrofit buildings and transition to sustainable sources like solar, wind and geothermal.
    • No HST on the provincial portion of the sales tax for EV purchases
    • No charge for overnight charging of EV's
    • An extra subsidy to low income homes for the purchase of an EV
    • various other measures to electrify transit and lower carbon emissions from forms of transportation still using it


    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...sweeping-climate-change-plan/article30029081/
     
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    • TrevP

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      Glad to see serious movement on this. Sure lots of people will complain about spending tax dollars on subsidies etc... but how they forget that oil has been subsidized for so long that it doesn't make the news at all. If we redirect some of those funds to EV incentives it will help with adoption. I like the 8% sales tax reduction!
       
    • Mike

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      That, and the no charge for overnight charging of ev's.
       
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      • Daliman

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        I am hopeful about the ongoing support for EV's and the total commitment to retrofitting buildings, solar and geothermal. In addition to getting my driving CO2 footprint as close to zero as I can with the Model III I also want to take my home as close to zero as I can. Investment in sufficient solar panels to do this is going to be a larger one than the Tesla, so it may have to wait a few years unless there is a significant new subsidy. The Globe suggests that there is likely to be.

        Getting rid of heating with natural gas is likely to be very controversial and costly. I agree with Trev that many will complain about these measures, but the cost of continuing this crazy science experiment is all around us now. The change to renewables will happen more quickly and cheaply if it can be driven by the market and innovation. However, major emitters have been slow to change and government redirecting money to sustainable energy appears necessary. The cost of the entire program is less than the damage caused by extreme weather events in three years. While these events are not wholly due to climate change they have increased massively as the temperature has risen.

        Love the idea of eliminating the sales tax, that would be a substantial benefit on the order of $4000 in addition to the $14,000 incentive. I also like the idea of free overnight charging. I am not sure how this would be regulated, perhaps simply no charge for electricity to any home that has registered as having an EV from midnight until 6 am? Separate metre on the charger?
         
      • Mike

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        Reading the story in the link, the author mirrors the general attitude of big business hoping to continue to use the environment as a free dump. Tact and tone as follows:

        "While such policies are likely to be popular with ecoconscious voters, who will now receive government help to green their lives, they are certain to cause mass disruption for the province’s automotive and energy sectors, which will have to make significant changes to the way they do business."

        Government help, including aggressive capital cost accelerators (tax code) only available to fossil fuel based industries is okay, but the author belittles the planned policies as nothing more than boutique funding to "green (our) lives".

        The comments section attendant to the article reads like a Koch Brother's call to arms.

        I hope this all comes to pass in the next few years. However, I expect less than 10% to actually survive the next election.

        As for charging the car at night for free: just blue sky thinking here, but with smart meters already in situ and the Internet of things about to explode, I see the vehicles log of uploaded energy per night info linked to the smart meter and only the portion of the night consumption that is acknowledged as being uploaded to the car not subject to tarrif. Great idea though, keeps our expensive nuclear fleet alive for probably another 20 years..
         
      • Mirek

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        Problem with us Ontarians going this green is that it will have no effect on the world pollution levels, till the big players like China, India do the same. There are roughly 1000 fossil-fuel power stations going on line around the world every day.
        That's where the focus should be. Let's bring the developing world to our level of thinking first.

        I think this proposal is crazy in today's world, the cost of everything will go up and we will become like North European countries where the taxes are so high that most of your paycheck will go to the government. Somebody will have to pay for all this.
        I don't think this government will get reelected.
         
      • Daliman

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        China has actually banned new coal plants and is closing a thousand mines. India is continuing down the road to disaster for generation but plans to electrify transportation. I wonder if this government and these policies will survive an election but I don't view action by any government who can be persuaded to take it as wasted.
         
      • TrevP

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        Doesn't negate the fact that we all must do our part to help with the environment. Ignoring it and saying that others should do their before we should is not the right tact. Do by example and the others will follow. Worked for Tesla.
         
      • Mike

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        #9 Mike, May 17, 2016
        Last edited: May 17, 2016
        Can you provide a peer reviewed source for this information?

        Lazard's Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis 9.0. Nov 17 2015 (Google it and download the whole report) shows that onshore wind and utility solar are now the cheapest form of additional energy production (energy efficiency is the cheapest overall solution).

        The "new coal plant a week in China" meme used by fossil fuel interests is never followed up with how many of those are actually being turned on, how many are being operated at a financial loss and how many are operating at a capacity factor of 50% or less.

        https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/1...deal-build-1-gw-dispatchable-solar-day-night/

        https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/11/installed-wind-power-china-set-triple-2030-reports-globaldata/

        http://cleantechnica.com/2015/10/19/indias-reliance-power-plans-sell-coal-mines-shift-solar-power/

        http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/22/solar-power-now-cheaper-than-coal-in-india-says-energy-minister/

        This link gives an executive summary of the pre Paris 2015 report by CityGroup, "ENERGY DARWINISM II Why a Low Carbon Future Doesn’t Have to Cost the Earth " http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/18/cost-of-not-acting-on-climate-change-44-trillion-citi.html
        In that report, the bankers of Wall Street stipulate a loss to world GDP of $72 Trillion if known fossil fuel reserves are used.

        Your paycheck will be funding climate costs, such as higher home insurance rates due to wildfires burning down whole cities in Alberta.

        If you really want to use an economic argument to do nothing, read this whole article and then compare it to what the Ontario government is proposing: http://cleantechnica.com/2015/11/03/clean-energy-transition-is-a-25-trillion-free-lunch/

        Cheers
         
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        • Daliman

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          Thanks Mike for the well sourced and thought out response. The thing that I find most interesting about Elon and his companies is that he is stimulating fundamental change in the economy by simply building a better mousetrap. He is using skilled engineering and the forces of the market to move the economy towards renewable energy and transportation. In the end I would bet that these forces will play a greater role in this transition than any subsidy.

          Subsidies may cause concern, but massive subsidies have been provided to fossil fuel companies for a century, $450 billion per year according to the Globe. Stop these and direct the money to renewable sources of energy and the transition is even more affordable. If the transition had started 20 yrs ago the subsidies might not be necessary, but the rate of temperature change and the resulting damage is so dramatic that the transition has to occur quickly. Cheers;

          http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/g20-fossil-fuel-subsidies-450b-1.3314291
           
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          • Mike

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            Cheers.
            When I sit down with a small group of politically "right of center" folks, the subject of subsidies always comes up.

            The famous July 2015 IMF study http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2015/NEW070215A.htm that pegs fossil fuel subsidies at 6.5% of global GDP always gets an excellent debate going.

            The IMF study stipulates every Canadian citizen (yep, all 36+ million of us) supports the fossil fuel industry to the tune of $US 1,283.35.

            With Canada's emissions at 726 mega-tonnes https://www.ec.gc.ca/indicateurs-indicators/default.asp?lang=en&n=FBF8455E-1 that equates to a subsidy of "about" $63.09 per tonne CO2....or 15 cents per liter of gasoline.

            The implied cost of carbon to close the Ontario coal plants worked out to about $160 a tonne. It would be interesting to see what the implied cost of carbon will work out to be if the Ontario government actually passes all the stipulated proposals.

            One more tidbit, my favorite slide when it comes to the inefficiencies of the current liquid based transportation system (US figures shown as they are most up to date):02.US Rejected energy from transportation.PNG
            ...and the carbon cost attached to that system:03.Carbon emissions from transportation.PNG

            The US grid is still 75% dependent on fossil fuels for generation and the transportation sector is almost "neck and neck" with carbon emissions.

            The latest Canadian snapshot is from 2011 and Ontario still had huge coal inputs into the grid. Even so, at that time, the Canadian grid was only 30% dependent on fossil fuels. It is much "cleaner" today.

            All the better to power a ground transportation system with it. ;)
             
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            • Blackout

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              I Like this article, I'm starting to like Ontario :)
               
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              • Daliman

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                Mike thank you again you are a fount of information. Out of curiousity do you work in a related field? Any suggestions for reading in the climate change/renewable energy field. Cheers
                 
              • Mirek

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                Thanks for great reading, it dose't prove that climate change is real tho. We had big fires before you know. There are a lot of different opinions on this.
                I do't think we really know whats going on with our planet. As humans we have't been around long enough to really know. I just don't want to jump on bandwagon.
                I think scientists use the "green card" to get funding. We should't just blindly go with everything they say. Sure I like to have clean air to breath like anybody else but if we start giving out money to anybody who says the world is coming to the end is crazy.
                Sure lets go towards green, but lets be smart and do't kill the middle class in process.
                Like I said our effort in Canada will have no effect, but you will put more families on hard times and that should be a priority.
                 
              • Mike

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                Daliman, you are welcome. I do deep research because it interests me and I have a grandson.

                Some good reading regarding the science:



                Another good read (Google this and find the PDF for the 13 page report):

                The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus

                Thomas C. Peterson
                NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina William M. Connolley
                British Antarctic Survey, National Environment Research Council, Cambridge, United Kingdom John Fleck
                Albuquerque Journal, Albuquerque, New Mexico

                A site that will allow one to research scientific retorts to opinions made by anthropomorphic global warming (AGW) deniers:

                http://www.skepticalscience.com/

                ExxonMobil's call for a global carbon tax:

                http://www.exxonmobilperspectives.com/2015/05/06/exxonmobil-paris-and-carbon-policy/

                ....and what ExxonMobil thinks will happen with business as usual:

                https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...ec161973_story.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_opinions

                Enjoy! :)
                 
              • Mike

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                The first link seems dead. And I can't edit a correction. The link to the book you would be interested in is by Joseph Romm called "Hell and High Water". Google it as well. Cheers
                 
              • Mike

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                http://jamespowell.org/
                ExxonMobil agrees that AGW is real:
                http://www.exxonmobilperspectives.com/2015/05/06/exxonmobil-paris-and-carbon-policy/
                John Tyndal, 1861:
                http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-15093234

                Mirek, your arguments are moot.

                The reason it is moot is because the economics of UNSUBSIDIZED renewables has already surpassed any fossil fueled model:

                Download the PDF from this link: https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-analysis-90/

                .....And that is without a "carbon tax", so the fossil fueled model is still, in fact, subsidized.

                It's all economics now. That is why China and India will exceed expectations between now and 2021 regarding CO2 levels in their economies.

                As for Canada and the product in northern Alberta:

                The median cost to produce a barrel of oil-sands oil is $US88 (Rystad Energy research and analysis).

                The discount on oil sands oil is usually in the $US13 a barrel range. This G&M story sums it up nicely: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...s-insult-to-oil-patch-injury/article27898675/

                Albert Oil Sands oil has the highest upstream CO2 content of any oil on the planet: http://oci.carnegieendowment.org/ (When using the charts, remember that a barrel of diluted bitumen is 25% diluant and that 25% has no net energy value downstream).

                Global oil over-production is 2% over global consumption. 2%. That's all it took to collapse the economics of our marginal oil.

                Cheers
                 
              • Mike

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                Daliman,

                Capture1.PNG
                And here is another great read I forgot to capture in my other reply. Explains "learning rates" so that even I can understand "the next solar panel is cheaper to produce than the last one was" and "the next oil field to exploit is more expensive than the last one was":
                Capture2.PNG

                Mirek,

                The economics of renewables (being played out right now world wide):
                Capture3.PNG
                Comment on the blame game regarding hydro rates in Ontario:

                On the chart above, note where the real "all in" costs of nuclear power work out to compared to utility solar and onshore wind.

                There was a much ballyhooed announcement (Nov 2015) that Bruce Nuclear would cost 6.573 cents per kWh. Details not covered by the initial press announcement: the 6.573 cent per kWh price is effective until 31 Mar 2016. Then the "first cost escalator" kicks in. Yep, their wholesale price has already gone up since the announcement five months ago. The planned $13 billion investment into the Bruce facility will raise the cost to 8.723 cents per kWh by 2023, not including normal O&M or inflation. Since this facility is still owned by the people of Ontario, when the current operator fulfills their contract, the inevitable de-commisioning costs will still be assumed by the ratepayers of Ontario.

                The current winning "lowest bid" power purchase agreement for "wind" in Ontario:

                Capture10.PNG

                Full details at IESO site here: http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Media/Release.aspx?releaseID=7322

                Another note on Ontario generation costs: as per figure 5, section 3.05 (page 212) of the "2015 Annual Report of the Office of the Auditor General of Ontario":

                Capture4.PNG

                ...even with "expensive first generation power purchase agreements" for wind, wind came in at 12 cents per kWh and natural gas came in at 15.3 cents per kWh.

                I bring this up in this thread because nuclear power is uneconomical. If nuclear made economic sense, every generation jurisdiction in the United States FERC regions would be embracing it like they are now embracing wind and solar.

                Wind and solar, via the Green Energy Act, get all the blame for the high rates.

                Rant over. :) Cheers
                 
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                • Mike

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                • Daliman

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                  Wow! Mike for energy czar. I had already ordered clean disruption, you have given me a few weeks/months of reading. Thanks for all of the suggestions and clear reasoning. I am nearing the point of retirement from a pretty intense career and have been thinking about what I want to do to occupy my mind and how I can contribute to the world my son will live in. I had concluded that climate change advocacy was likely it. Now to start the harder work of learning the facts and finding a way to positively work towards a sustainable economy.

                  Although there are great challenges and the evidence of the consequences of failure is starkly shown on the news from Alberta everyday I think you are right that economics simply make renewables inevitable. 70 years ago RA Heinlein said in the man who sold the moon (elon is the man who is selling mars) about solar power "it is raining soup, grab a bucket". I shake my head when I look at what it takes to extract and transport bitumen from the tar sands. I used to work at bruce nuclear 25 yrs ago, even then the engineers expected massive ongoing costs to maintain it. Clearly we can build a better cheaper bucket. Personal indulgence over.
                   

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