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Ordering process and timing change the decision process?

Discussion in 'Reserving, Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Tim M, Aug 11, 2017.

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  1. Tim M

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    #1 Tim M, Aug 11, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2017
    I'm curious about how others are thinking about this -- first I have to layout some (potentially flawed) assumptions & questions..

    Assumptions:
    - We'll receive an email the moment that the configurator is opened to us individually (more a question about whether it's worth refreshing each week or something.. I'm assuming we don't need to do that)
    - The sooner we order, the sooner we get the vehicle (therefore, know what you want now so it's a quick order process)
    - Any trades and financing issues can purely be handled near the delivery timeframe (doesn't affect decision making on what you order, other than if you trade-in and have no idea on its value and it will affect your budget)

    (Lots of) Questions:
    - Do you think it will it be a "race" against the people in your region to configure in order to get it sooner, or is it truly a FIFO.. you get the email to configure ahead of the person behind you in line? If it's purely FIFO, there'd have to be some kind of waiting period but not too long since they obviously can't hold up the "configuring" line. So that leads me to think it'll be opened up in groups.
    - How long do we have to configure before they make you defer? Can the configurator for a reservation-holder be open indefinitely and it's like you're actively standing in the config line but letting people continually go in front until you're ready? Or do you have to select "defer" at some point? If you do, how long does it defer and can you jump on it prior to that deferment date being reached?
    - How far ahead of being able to receive the vehicle will the configurator be available?
    - Does your selection on MyTesla impact when they email you or is it just kind of informative to Tesla about your likely intent? i.e. if I select dual motor would I get an email later than if I select first production? (I'm thinking not..)

    Here's where I'm going with this.. I don't need the car immediately; as in, a few months either way is fine.. more important to me is the long-term. There are some advantages to waiting to configure (and even waiting to receive the car):
    - More info is available every day
    - It may mean we can test drive (or at least see it) before ordering
    - Quarterly Tesla US production numbers will come out, giving better estimate on tax credit dates
    - Kinks will continue to be worked out hopefully rapidly on the production line as they're discovered by owners
    - More options become available (white, standard battery, AWD)

    What made me think of this is a "bad" (maybe not worst case) scenario where they hit 200K in 2017 and my standard battery + premium model gets delivered in April (currently says Feb-Apr). If I'm going to lose out on $3750 to wait for that config, I'd rather spend the net $5250 more and get the long range so it's sooner and I get the credit. This may be something I need to do sometime in Q4 but it's very dependent on assumptions and answers to questions above.

    Sorry for the long OP.. and it's even my first one.. hopefully I make some semblance of sense. Love this forum by the way..
     
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    • MelindaV

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      Likely assumption
      yes
      correct
      probably a mix of both - invites will be grouped per how Tesla estimates they will deliver orders... -or- will open the configurator to a larger number at a time and will prioritize orders once people configure. Either way, I don't think they will be holding up the line for the guy that hasn't yet configured.
      you are not required to configure right away (or at all). there are still early Model X reservation holders that have not configured an X.
      don't know... probably 2-3 months prior to your estimated delivery window would be a good guess.
      not likely. They are more likely using that information for overall scaling of interest between the different model options.
       
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      • SoFlaModel3

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        #3 SoFlaModel3, Aug 11, 2017
        Last edited: Aug 11, 2017
        My thoughts in bold following your assumptions and questions.

        Assumptions:
        • We'll receive an email the moment that the configurator is opened to us individually (more a question about whether it's worth refreshing each week or something.. I'm assuming we don't need to do that) -- waiting for this "email" doesn't stop me from checking 30 times a day ;)
        • The sooner we order, the sooner we get the vehicle (therefore, know what you want now so it's a quick order process) -- I agree with this
        • Any trades and financing issues can purely be handled near the delivery timeframe (doesn't affect decision making on what you order, other than if you trade-in and have no idea on the its value and it will affect your budget) -- yes and you will get a delivery specialist that will help you with the finishing touches on the transaction well in advance of the car arriving

        (Lots of) Questions:
        • Do you think it will it be a "race" against the people in your region to configure in order to get it sooner, or is it truly a FIFO.. you get the email to configure ahead of the person behind you in line? If it's purely FIFO, there'd have to be some kind of waiting period but not too long since they obviously can't hold up the "configuring" line. So that leads me to think it'll be opened up in groups. -- On some level yes. I mean definitely yes. If we're in the same batch and I confirm my order asap and you sit on yours for 2 months. My car is most definitely arriving before yours.
        • How long do we have to configure before they make you defer? Can the configurator for a reservation-holder be open indefinitely and it's like you're actively standing in the config line but letting people continually go in front until you're ready? Or do you have to select "defer" at some point? If you do, how long does it defer and can you jump on it prior to that deferment date being reached? -- My assumption is it sits open for you indefinitely. You effectively defer by not placing your order.
        • How far ahead of being able to receive the vehicle will the configurator be available? -- this is the magic question we are all hoping to get answered and simply do not know. What we do know for sure is that it's open now for cars being delivered in September/early October. That doesn't necessarily mean anything going forward though.
        • Does your selection on MyTesla impact when they email you or is it just kind of informative to Tesla about your likely intent? i.e. if I select dual motor would I get an email later than if I select first production? (I'm thinking not..) -- you're getting the email when your number comes up. Tesla indicates that your selection has no impact on your position in line and also do not lock you into a decision. It's simply a mechanism for Tesla to gauge how many cars, where, and when.

        Here's where I'm going with this.. I don't need the car immediately; as in, a few months either way is fine.. more important to me is the long-term. There are some advantages to waiting to configure (and even waiting to receive the car):
        • More info is available every day -- this is true of any technology. You'll drive yourself crazy waiting and never pull the trigger.
        • It may mean we can test drive (or at least see it) before ordering -- you're right here. There will be a lot of people locking in their order before ever seeing the car in person let alone driving it. I have a feeling I fall into this group :)
        • Quarterly Tesla US production numbers will come out, giving better estimate on tax credit dates -- I can assure you waiting will hurt you in this regard. We know where they're at now we know their projections on Model 3's and if you're banking on $7,500 waiting for more information could be waiting for confirmation you just lost half the credit.
        • Kinks will continue to be worked out hopefully rapidly on the production line as they're discovered by owners -- this is legit to me of course, though I am hopeful any issues can be worked out without much trouble. Also, I am hopeful any issues are found by the cars delivered through early October to employees.
        • More options become available (white, standard battery, AWD) -- there will always be more options. Sometimes there will be less options. Then they may be standards. Tesla shuffles the deck constantly. You have to make your decision on what you want. For things that are known with known delays you have to make the call. I have generally been a very impatient person all my life and its something I work on but still struggle with. I am so thankful that the first production vehicles match up to what I want otherwise I would most likely not be able to remain patient here ;)

        What made me think of this is a "bad" (maybe not worst case) scenario where they hit 200K in 2017 and my standard battery + premium model gets delivered in April (currently says Feb-Apr). If I'm going to lose out on $3750 to wait for that config, I'd rather spend the net $5250 more and get the long range so it's sooner and I get the credit. This may be something I need to do sometime in Q4 but it's very dependent on assumptions and answers to questions above. -- this is where you really need to think about it. The first delivery hits you for $49,00 - $7,500 tax credit at $41,500. The Standard at $40,000 - $3,750 comes in at $36,250. You need to make the call. Back to your thought on "knowing more info". It's possible 200k hits in January and thus $7,500 runs through 6/30/2017. Also back to your thoughts above, playing the waiting game could cost you. Now you sat on your order and what if you somehow miss the $3,750 window. A lot of moving parts...

        Sorry for the long OP.. and it's even my first one.. hopefully I make some semblance of sense. Love this forum by the way.. -- agreed, great place to bide the time!
         
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        • Tim M

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          This makes a ton of sense -- hadn't thought of this possibility. If they're gathering the batches far enough ahead of time, then all that would matter is you get your order in within the group's window (which we wouldn't know), but it's a great compromise of efficiency, fairness, and giving people time to decide.
          I realize that.. I'm talking about people being on vacation or not checking on status for a week (I know, incomprehensible to you ;)), then coming back and realizing they're effectively 10,000 back in line because there was a frenzy. If it's as Melinda suggested above, that'll solve this issue.
          The reason I thought it was a specific timeframe was early on I thought Elon had stated you can defer for some period of time but it was fixed, like a year. Seems odd that it would even be considered "deferring" if it's just staying open.
          Right. I'm not talking about sitting on my order (for very long).. moreso planning for what might happen when we get to October and know Q3 numbers and thus better estimate on likely tax credit date, and my configurator opens up. Now consider it's the last week of Sept and that happens.. I'd be inclined to wait for the quarterly #s so I can make a more sure bet. I definitely don't want the standard battery with $3750 credit.. I already know I'd get the long range w/$7500 credit instead.
          Perhaps.. though if there's <90% chance I get the full credit I may just go with first production anyway, which means I could wait for a month and order that and be relatively sure to get it on time. The risk of waiting decreases the worse Tesla's production #s are, so we'll have to see.
           
        • Model34mePlease

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          My guess is there is one more potential scheduling issue. We know that the first cars will all be LRB, PUP, with just stuff that is at the end of the assembly line as variables (wheels, paint, software). I suspect that the next batch will be all base model vehicles with the same options. They are trying to ramp production as fast as possible and ease of assembly is really important. The implication of this is that your delivery date will not slip smoothly, you may wind up losing several months because you want LRB, PUP but not in the first batch. Also, if you want LRB but not PUP, etc. you may slip even further. Beware production hell! :eek::mad::confused:o_O
           
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          • SoFlaModel3

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            The beauty of the Model 3 is the limited configurations. They're most likely going to be making the cars before we make our selections and then assigning the cars being made to us. For that reason, I believe if your number is before mine, we're getting the same spec, and you order say a week after me --- you probably get your car first.

            I figured as much. It goes with my answer above. If our order time is close enough to be in the "same batch" then I suspect we get our cars together or you get yours first even if I ordered first.

            My understanding of this is that your reservation holds your place in line. If you sit on it for a 1 year and there is somehow still a 1 year backlog at that point, you would get your car soon thus retaining your "active position in queue" while others initially around you have cleared the queue.

            I guess this is a wait and see. What is you're invited to configure tomorrow? You're pretty far away from the close of the quarter. You'd want to work off of the best information possible which tells you right now that car 200,000 is most likely to hit in late Q4 or early Q1 (plan for the worst, late Q4) and make your decision accordingly. If you're invited to configure on September 29th, then waiting for more information may make sense.

            I agree!
             
          • SoFlaModel3

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            This is a very good point -- in fact we do not even know if PUP will be available on the base battery. I assume it will be, but it's still an assumption and not a certainty.
             
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            • Tim M

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              #8 Tim M, Aug 11, 2017
              Last edited: Aug 11, 2017
              I can't even fathom that they wouldn't have PUP as an option with SRB.

              EDIT: Seems the configurator indicates that they're optional when it comes:
              https://electrek.files.wordpress.com/2017/07/tesla-model-3-config-1-e1501381516183.png
               
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              • Model34mePlease

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                I think it may well be available, but quite probably not until later. I'm sure they are quite actively trying to figure out when to start, and how many, base $35k cars to produce, all in a row. That will be their first case of moving the assembly line from one setup to another.
                 
              • Michael Russo

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                We don't know yet from a margin as well marketing offering basis, it makes a world of sense... ;)
                 
              • SoFlaModel3

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                • SSonnentag

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                  I prefer to have dual motors, mainly for additional range and performance. But lately I'm not so sure the range or performance will be affected enough to matter. Tesla's website states the same 220/310 range for the dual motor car, and I really don't think they want this car's performance to be under 5 seconds 0-60, at least not without a very expensive ludicrous performance upgrade price tag. $30K?

                  So at this point, I suspect I'll be getting the single motor, LRB and premium package. If exciting performance and/or range news comes out about the dual motor option befor my order number comes up I will reevaluate. Otherwise, I'd rather have the car 8 months sooner and $4K-$5K cheaper.
                   
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