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Discussion in 'Reserving, Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Jaspal, May 2, 2016.

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  1. Jaspal

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    #1 Jaspal, May 2, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
    I assume that production starts when you configure the car correct? Or does Tesla start before the configuration of the car to make production. What does the time frame look like from now on (after reservation).

    Jaspal.
     
  2. TrevP

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    Normally production of your car begins after you've confirmed your order. They batch colours together, and similar configs so the line moves as smoothly as possible.

    As for Model 3 they've already stated that higher-optioned cars will be made first. This allows them to recoup capital costs faster as high-options carry good margins for them. They then move on to general production and eventually there's a mix once a certain backlog has been fulfilled. We're seeing that now with the Model X.

    However with over 400K backlog of Model 3 it might be 3 years before they can get through it unless they really ramp up production quickly and get the factory maxed out to 500K cars annually faster than thought. Their financial call is coming up on Wednesday and I'll be listening closely for any indications that is going to happen.

    Tesla has always said the Fremont factory used to make 500K cars a year but they would build it back up to that over time. Model 3 demand has caught them completely off guard so I think they're going to push to tool the factory as soon as possible to get to the limit right away rather than wait a few years. In any case, I suspect we will hear from Tesla this year about building a factory in Europe or China to meet demand in those markets as well as a possibly accelerating the timeframe for finishing the Gigafactory.
     
  3. garsh

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    I've seen this mentioned here and on TMC, but I've never seen the primary source for this statement. Do you have a link to an Elon tweet or video where he states this?
     
  4. Jaspal

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    Also, there is another factory in CA, but I dont know if it is used for other purposes. It is in Lathrop, CA which is about 52 miles away from Fremont and opened up recently. You said that they will eventually max out the Fremont factory. Does this apply to the Lathrop facility as well? Wouldn't max production be way more than 500,000 (if lathrop facility produces cars).
     
  5. TrevP

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    Yep:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/388...-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

    Seach for:
    "Jamie Albertine of Stifel". 4 paragraphs down.

    That quote has several tidbits that I've mentioned before.

    1. Model 3 is designed to be easier to manufacture than Model S.
    2. Economies of scale
    3. Plan to make higher-optioned cars first as they did with Model S/X
    Earnings calls are awesome for getting interesting information. People ask me where I get information they've never heard before. Now you know ;)
     
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  6. TrevP

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    That facility is too small to make cars. They make parts there, machining stuff. They also took over the old Solyndra facility in Fremont. That's 500,000 square feet.

    They also bought a Michigan firm who makes their dies a couple of years ago. Tesla is much bigger than people think they are.
     
  7. Blackout

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  8. TrevP

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    GREAT NEWS!!!

    Notes from the earnings call:

    http://model3ownersclub.com/threads/q1-2016-earnings-call.231/#post-2689

    • Production ramp increased to 500K cars by 2018 instead of 2020
    • Model 3 final engineering finished in 6-8 weeks from now
    • Prototypes at launch event were running production drivetrains
    • Release of tooling designs in June of this year
    • 8-9 months to build out factory tooling
    • Initial production validation cars in April 2017
    • July 1 2017 internal deadline for supplier parts finished and initial production. Deadline might be impossible but they have to "hold feet to the fire"
    • Tesla could be capable of making 100,000 to 200,000 cars by second half of 2017
     
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  9. Drew

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    That would be awesome if they could pull it off. Most of the US buyers would be able to get the tax credit if they hit those dates.
     
  10. minogully

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    My favourite part of this was the last sentence, which states, "Musk said that someone ordering a Model 3 today would have a chance of having it delivered by the end of 2018."

    So, that means they'll probably get through their 400,000 pre-orders by then. Considering that I'm around 200,000th in line, by my estimates, factoring in the distribution of the pre-orders across the world, and considering my location... I'm guessing I'll have mine in early 2018. :D
     
  11. Daliman

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    What I found most interesting was the emphasis on the model 3 being an easier vehicle to manufacture. They seemed to be very firm that the design of version 1 is going to be complete in a few weeks. More hopeful now that I will be getting my model 3 in a reasonable time frame.
    Elon repeatedly said that tesla was seeking to become the best car manufacturer in the world and would be making significant hiring announcements soon to meet this goal.
     
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  12. MelindaV

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    it just means the 200,000th Tesla sold in the US would happen sooner. the actual number of buyers qualifying for the credit could very well be identical*
    *depending on when in the quarter the 200K-th is sold
     
  13. Andreas Stephens

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    Can't recall any other results presentation where a CEO notes that he has moved his desk to the end of the production line - including a sleeping bag...
     
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  14. Blackout

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    Yah I estimated March 2018 for me... But I think if there is 250k reservation in California than all of the Californian would get theirs first before we get ours even if we ordered before them...
    I ordered mine before Musk showed the car when he said 215 miles lol... So I think I should between 110k-115k but it won't matter much I might get it at the end of the summer :( but I think Toronto will get it before Ottawa...
    If you want I'll come and you can see mine... (Not sure about these driving the lol)
    But by then they should have M3 display in malls so we'll have plenty of time playing with it before it comes...
     
  15. garsh

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    Because the credit remains for the entire quarter after they've sold the 200,000th vehicle in the U.S., having a higher production rate really does mean that more people will qualify for the credit.

    Additionally, Musk has been quoted on twitter saying that they would do their best to make sure that as many people qualify as possible. That could be as simple as filling out a quarter with Canadian and European sales after reaching 199,999 cars. Additionally, it could mean that they also fill those two huge warehouses that they just bought with brand new Model 3s and wait a quarter before delivering them. The latter seems unlikely, since that forgoes revenue for a quarter, and I don't believe that Tesla can afford that.
     
  16. minogully

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    The way I've always thought it would work is not that they would release to ALL Californians before they move on to other regions.

    If I were designing the algorithm (which is what I do for a living), I'd release to the western region first, then after a specified amount of time, say a month, start the release of the next region but continue producing and releasing to the first region. Then again, after a specified amount of time start the release to the next region to be delivering cars to three regions at once.

    This would be advantageous because as they begin the release to each new region they could ramp up the production rate leaving the west receiving their cars at about the same rate as the other regions but just with a head start.

    If this is how they plan to do it, we could still get ours before some Californians.
     
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  17. John

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    On the call, Tesla said that only 7% (say roughly 28,000 cars) were to current Tesla owners. That number could rise (as current Tesla owners decide to order, or folks take a test drive and decide they need an S or an X to bide them over until 3 comes out). Or it could fall.

    Elon stated that he currently believes they will make "100,000-200,000 Model 3s in 2017." Elon characterized the production ramp as an S-curve, meaning that while it might take a while to get the line started, once it was ready it would very quickly ramp to something like 80% capacity in a very brief time, with the other 20% of capacity coming as kinks were worked out over time. So you could try to guess the number of weeks of capacity they might get in 2017, and what the rate might be. If you are optimistic, you'd say the ramp kicks in Sept 1 (16 weeks at 8K, 128,000 units). Or perhaps Oct 1 (12 weeks at 8K, 96K units). Or you could be really optimistic and guess that they'd launch Sept 1 at 8K/wk and get to 10K/wk by Oct 1 (152,000). To me, 150,000 seems like a top end, and I'd guess the number's probably 75,000-100,000.

    I'm reassured by the deadlines Elon shared about design completion happening in the next 6-8 weeks and other deadline dates, and the fact that he's personally visiting and demanding "A-Team" dedication from each supplier.

    You can calculate your odds of seeing a 2017 Model 3 like I did:

    My order went in at about 11:15am (about an hour after doors opened in Dublin, California) before the reveal. I was #137 in line (someone started a non-official clipboard sign in sheet), and I'd guess there were at least 400 people in line that day when I finished and drove away. There are at most 30 "West Coast" dealerships. Some were double orders (5%), Assuming Dublin was processing orders roughly as fast as other locations, I'd guess I was about the 5000th order to go in (137 x 1.05 x 30, then round up to 5000). Then add onto that how many West Coast owners there are who get preference (50% of Tesla S owners live in California, so I'd guess at a minimum half of the pre-orders were from California. Given that they knew they'd get a preference, maybe more. Perhaps 18,000? Some number of those are double-counted because they waited in line like I did, but I'll just be conservative and ignore that.

    So I'd guess I'm in the first 23,000 in line on the West Coast. Assuming I don't order a configuration that sets me back, I'm optimistic about a 2017 delivery.
     
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  18. xxZULAxx

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    Yesterday i was listening to one of the EV podcasts and they were talking about production and timeline for Tesla. One of them bought an X and saw there were some 25k of X's in front of him. Few months later he received his X regardless, and with not to many options if I understand. Basically, question is where did all these reservations go? Either, Tesla is becoming good at manufacturing or people are realizing cost of the vehicle once they start their setup process and don't finalize orders. I am afraid same thing may happen with 3. I get feeling that lot's of people are dependent on the tax break and initial price of 35k, which is more realistically about 40k if you include tax, delivery and whatever maintenance option you get. Basically, base mode with no options.
     
  19. John

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    xxZULAxx, I hear ya. But I think the interest in the Model 3 is broader and more diverse than you think.

    It would be easy to assume that interest is mostly/substantially limited to environmental do-gooders with a modest budget. I don't actually know what you think, I'm just making a broad assumption based on what most people on these forums express.

    Tesla got me in line because they sell computers with wheels. I started picking cars for their software and nav screens back in 2008. I was in for $35K regardless of taxes when I got in line, because Tesla puts the computer front and center. After the reveal, I loved how spartan the interior is (love that, hate the unnecessary visual complexity of most car interiors) and how refreshing a mostly glass roof would be.

    To me, it's car with great electronics that I can refuel in the driveway that is good enough to overlook the fact that I'll have to worry about recharging on any long trips I take with it, or any times I have to park it for long periods without charging.

    And it's affordable enough that someone like me (who has money but hates spending it on cars) would buy it.

    I guess my main point (and I do have one) is that there are lots of people who want this car *despite the fact* that it earns a tax break and is an electric car in a primarily gas world.
     
  20. xxZULAxx

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    I suppose we will find out how many do go through with purchase of model 3 once they understand that base model will have around $620 monthly payment. Monthly based on what i mentioned (40k (base model, taxes, plates, maintenance) at 6 year/72 month and 3.5% interest. If we take out high end markets such as California and New York, this would be half of someone's mortgage payment. But, i will be more positive and believe that most everyone will go through with purchase. And obviously, i didn't' include those who will lease in to the equation.
     

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