Range of the Tesla Model S/X/3 at 65/70/75/80 mph

Discussion in 'Tech Talk' started by Troy, Dec 23, 2017.

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  1. Troy

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    #1 Troy, Dec 23, 2017
    Last edited: May 25, 2018
    Hi, everybody. I created this table mostly based on EPA highway dyno test scores. Here is a direct link to the image in case it appears blurred.

    [​IMG]

    Why not use EPA rated range to compare the range of different Tesla cars instead of EPA dyno scores?
    Because of two reasons:

    1. EPA rated range shows the combined city and highway range. 55% of EPA rated range is based on the city test and 45% on the highway test. The city test replicates stop and go traffic at 21 mph average speed. You can see the details here. However, city range is irrelevant for EVs. Therefore I have used only the EPA highway dyno scores. The reason EPA uses the combined range is that the tests were designed to measure the fuel economy of gas cars but they use the same test to measure EV range.

    2. EPA rated range is not even the actual combined city and highway score because EPA allows car manufacturers to inflate or deflate the scores after the test is done. Deflating happens by voluntary reductions. Car manufacturers are allowed to voluntarily reduce the EPA rated range they want to advertise. Tesla uses this option frequently to make the range gap between the S and X look smaller than it is.

    Inflating happens by using alternative multipliers to convert dyno scores to EPA range. Normally, EPA rated range is calculated using this formula:

    EPA rated range = 0.7 * [(EPA city range * 0.55) + (EPA highway range * 0.45)]

    In the formula, the 0.7 multiplier is needed because the EPA dyno tests are performed at low speed. The city test is performed at 21 mph and the highway test at 48 mph average speed. This results in unrealistically high range numbers. Therefore they apply the multiplier to convert the numbers to more realistic numbers. So far, all EV manufacturers have used the 0.7 multiplier except Tesla. Tesla actually uses 0.7 too but only for the Model 3. They use higher multipliers for S/X to inflate the numbers. More information about this can be found here.

    If a car manufacturer decides to inflate or deflate their range numbers, the Monroney sticker (aka window sticker) and the numbers on EPA website show the inflated or deflated numbers. Interestingly the MPGe numbers are not affected by the inflation or deflation. In the past, there were some lawsuits related to inflated MPG numbers. I guess that could be the reason why the car manufacturers and EPA decided not to inflate those numbers.

    Converting EPA highway dyno scores to range numbers
    I have used more realistic multipliers to adjust EPA highway dyno scores until they matched the following numbers:

    Model S 75D: 265 miles at 65 mph
    Model X 90D: 260 miles at 65 mph
    Model 3 LR: 350 miles at 65 mph. Tested by Consumer Reports. Source: article

    I've calculated the first two numbers from these test scores:
    Model S 75D: 235 miles at 65 mph. Tested by Consumer Reports. Source: video and article
    Model X 90D: 230 miles at 65 mph. Tested by Consumer Reports. Source: article

    Consumer Reports tested the Model S 75D and Model X90D with regen set to low. That's wrong because most Tesla owners use the standard regen setting. Consumer Reports also tested the Model 3 LR but luckily they have released both numbers. The score was 310 mi at 65 mph with low regen and 350 mi at 65 with standard regen. Therefore I have applied the 350/310 correction ratio to calculate what the Model S 75D and Model X 90D would have been if they had used standard regen.

    Consumer Reports will also test the Model 3 LR with 18" wheels and aero covers. They took delivery of their Model 3 and they said they will test it. I will update the chart after the test.
    22 May 2018: I have updated the chart

    Range at 70, 75, 80 mph
    This is based on two sources:
    1. Tesla's graph here (I have measured the pixels in photoshop and created a transparent chart on a spreadsheet that matches this curve exactly.
    2. Also, there is another test that shows Model S 85's range at 45, 60 and 70 mph. Check out page 2 here. Both sources have very similar results.

    Supercharge percentages and 30-min Supercharge rates
    I've used this video for the S/X supercharge percentages. For the Model 3 LR, I've used this calculation 170/310= 54.8% in 30 minutes based on the 170 miles in 30 minutes number Tesla published here. The '30 min Supercharge' column refers to the range at 65 mph, not EPA rated range because it is not comparable between different Tesla models.

    Different wheel options:
    There are 3 wheel configurations for the Model 3:
    1. 18" wheels without aero covers
    2. 18" wheels with aero covers
    3. 19" wheels
    I think the test was done with #1 because of two reasons:
    1. On page 4 here you can see a photo of the car during the test.
    2. On page 16 here, it shows these two numbers: 9.95 HP for Model 3 with 18" and 11.13 HP for the Model 3 with 19". The ratio is 9.95/11.13= 89.4%. Now let's look at the Model S RWD numbers. On page 5 here, it shows these numbers: 11.45 HP for the Model S with 19" wheels and 12.78 HP for the Model S with 21" wheels. The ratio is 11.45/12.78= 89.6%. The difference is almost identical and the Model S in this test doesn't have aero covers. Therefore the almost identical difference suggests that neither the Model 3 nor the Model S had aero covers.

    To calculate #3, I have used the A, B, C coefficients on the same page (on page 16) here. It shows these numbers:

    Model 3 18"
    A= 38.51
    B= ‐0.0811
    C= 0.01610
    Road load @50 mph= 9.95 HP

    Model 3 19"
    A= 42.30
    B= ‐0.0212
    C= 0.01691
    Road load @50 mph= 11.13 HP

    The HP numbers at 50 mph are useful but I needed the numbers at 65, 70, 75, 80 mph. On Reddit, some people said the gains with the smaller wheels would diminish at higher speeds. This is correct but the change is very small. The efficiency difference between 18" - aero vs 19" at different speeds is as follows:
    • 65 mph 10.97%
    • 70 mph 10.70%
    • 75 mph 10.44%
    • 80 mph 10.19%
    To calculate these, I used the A, B, C numbers you see above which allow calculating the road load at any speed. We happen to have the road load at 50 mph. Therefore it is possible to double check whether the calculation is correct. Here is the calculation (50^2 means 50 * 50):

    (42.30 * 50 + ‐0.0212 * 50^2 + 0.01691 * 50^3 )/375= 11.135 HP

    In this formula, you can change 50 mph to 65 mph, then do the same calculation with the other A, B, C numbers for 18" wheels and then compare the results and you get 10.44% difference at 75 mph.

    For #2, I used an estimated 6% improvement because there is no definitive data yet. In 2012 Tesla released aero covers for the Model S and people were reporting 5 to 10% improvement. I figured 6% would be a safe bet.

    Battery Degradation:
    The range numbers shown are for new cars. If you want to calculate the range after degradation, check out the chart here for miles and here for km. You can see that the range drops to 95% at 45,000 miles or 72,500 km. For the Model 3, the drop to 95% will actually happen at a 25% higher mileage than the Model S because the Model 3 is more efficient and requires fewer charge cycles to achieve the same mileage.
     
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  2. Kizzy

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    Does the green indicate estimated values? I see that only one Model S, the dual motor/with aero UWC and all standard range Model 3s have their miles colored differently.
     
  3. Troy

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    #3 Troy, Dec 24, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2017
    Hi, @Kizzy. Yes, the green numbers are estimates. For the Model 3, we only have the EPA dyno test scores for the Model 3 LR RWD with 18" wheels and aero covers off. Therefore I calculated estimates for all the other options. To calculate the numbers for the Model 3 55, I used the cell counts. The Model LR battery has 4416 cells and the SR pack has 2976 cells (source). That's 2976/4416= 67.4%. However, reducing the scores by that ratio would show the range for a Model 3 55 as if it was a software limited 75 but still had the same weight. Therefore I considered the weight reduction from 75 to 55 as well. To calculate AWD numbers, I have looked at the Model S 75 vs 75D.
     
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  4. Michael Russo

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    @Troy , this is very useful, particularly in view of a developing itch I am developing to potentially get an S or even an X by the time my Model 3 could arrive (2Q19), if all the stars are aligned...

    I kinda knew this yet, since range will remain very important to me in view of my needs, I’d definitely have a major shortfall vs. Midnight S≡R≡NITY (LRB 19’’) with a S75D, let alone an X75D...
    So either I can really afford a 100D versions by then or it for sure remains Model ≡ for me!! :)
     
  5. Troy

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    #5 Troy, Dec 24, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2017
    Hi, @Michael Russo. On Reddit, I saw too many people considering to buy a Model S 85 instead of a Model 3 LR and I was tired of explaining to them that they are comparing the wrong cars. The Model S 85 is really only comparable to the $35,000 Model 3 SR and the Model 3 LR is comparable to the Model S 100D. The Model S 85 is the Tesla model that suffered the most from overly optimistic advertising. The battery size was 9% over advertised and the range numbers were 15% over advertised. Why? My guess is, in 2012 Tesla was a small company and they were expecting competition from other car companies. When talking about patents, Elon said that they expected other car companies to copy Tesla and come up with their own versions of 200+ miles EVs and then crush them with their massive production numbers. Of course, this never happened but it explains why Tesla might have over advertised the Model S 85 battery size and range numbers in 2012.

    Interestingly this had a negative effect for many years. the 85 kWh pack has only 77.5 kWh usable capacity. So when Tesla came up with a larger battery that had 81.8 kWh, they had a problem with the name. The 85 should have been called the 80 and the new pack should have been called the 85 but that name was already taken, so they called the new battery the 90 kWh even though it has only 81.8 kWh usable capacity. The newer 75 and 100 kWh packs don't have this problem. Model 3 doesn't have this problem either because Tesla says 75 kWh but the battery has 78.3 kWh usable capacity. They are under advertising it.

    So, to clear misconceptions about old Model S vs new Model 3 range numbers, I have decided to create these tables. Later I added the range at different speeds because I was getting lots of questions about that. This project is not perfect because we don't have all the data yet. I will create new versions of these tables when we have the Model 3 SR EPA data.
     
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  6. Michael Russo

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    Thanks, @Troy , all very useful!

    I’m only comparing new S vs. new 3, as if money was (almost) not a consideration... hence it is most likely Midnight S≡R≡NITY will be the 3 LRB, unless...

    Heck, I could always win the lottery in one way, shape or form... ;). Then S100D or X100D could consider... :cool:
     
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  7. Kbm3

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    Great work. One question:

    Why do you use the consumer reports score, when they admit they only charged it to 90%? Are you compensating for this factor?
     
  8. Troy

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    That's not exactly correct. Consumer Reports' test procedure is explained here. The screenshot below is from that page. By the way, you've asked me the same question before here.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. LUXMAN

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    Well, Dang it! So you are saying with the 19" Sport Wheels, I will get nowhere near 300 miles on a road trip...back to the hand wringing over wheel size....again!

    But seriously, very nicely done.
     
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  10. LUXMAN

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    Still amazing such a range penalty for the wheels
     
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  11. Dan Detweiler

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    What this all tells me is that if you are concerned mostly with range and supercharger charge speed, then the Model 3 LR is actually superior to both the Model S and X. For me, this far outweighs any acceleration superiority the big brothers may have. By all accounts it seems that the little sibling is a beast when it comes to long legs, at least until the Roadster comes out! ;)

    Dan
     
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  12. Kbm3

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    It is the 4th bullet point (from this exact article) that explains what they did. I am inserting here:
    • We make sure the car is in its version of normal drive mode, not extended range mode, because our goal is not to see what’s the maximum range an EV can get when pushed to its limits, but rather to see the total number of miles a driver should expect under normal circumstances.
     
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  13. Kbm3

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    In addition, Consumer Reports turned off regen. For the Bolt, this is not a handicap because the brakes still use regen. The Model S brakes are friction only.
     
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  14. JBsC6

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    Wow...thanks to all those who contributed to creating this data.

    Fascinating and creating in simple data that at 65 mph the base mode 3 with 19 inch wheels will travel 199 miles when new.

    That's thre or four hours behind the wheel...on the road...that's about how long I last behind the wheel before wanting a pit stop.

    Seems like that model 3 is making making more and more sense...although who knew the 18 inch aero wheels really made such a significant range different...

    I don't personally care for the looks and believe a larger higher profile tire might have helped...bit either way the 19s are better looking so range doesn't matter that much...

    I imagine many consumers will opt for the larger rims as well just for the aesthetics..

    The increase in speed on the highways drop in mileage was insightful too..
     
  15. Troy

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    I don't understand what you mean. What does it explain?

    @MelindaV, since you agreed with that message, what exactly did you agree with? I'm trying to understand the argument.
     
  16. MelindaV

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    That the article you referenced charged to the ‘recommended’ 80-90%, not 100%, as would be the ‘normal’ daily use case.
     
  17. Troy

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    #17 Troy, Dec 25, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2017
    The closest Tesla came to telling the truth about the range penalty with larger wheels was when they had the following footnote on the Model X design studio. However, they were still downplaying the difference. The actual difference for the Model X is 22.5%, not 10-15%. The reason the difference is twice as much as the S or the 3 is that the 22" MX rear wheels are wider than the 20". S or 3 wheels have the same width regardless the wheel size.

    Later they removed that information because after all Tesla is trying to make money with the larger wheels. For more information on this topic, check out this article and my message here on Reddit. My username there is /u/Teslike.

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Troy

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    #18 Troy, Dec 25, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2017
    How did you come up with that conclusion? The article is here. 1st bullet point says fully charged and 4th bullet point says range mode was not on because they were trying to demonstrate normal use. Where does it say charged to 90%? Did you completely skip the part where they said they make sure the car is fully charged? I added a screenshot to message #8. The cars are charged to 100%. See the 1st bullet point here.
    • First, we make sure the car is fully charged.
    • We make sure the car is in its version of normal drive mode, not extended range mode, because our goal is not to see what’s the maximum range an EV can get when pushed to its limits, but rather to see the total number of miles a driver should expect under normal circumstances.
    In the Roadster range mode might refer to charge level but in a Model S, range mode is a setting that reduces maximum power for climate control and battery heating. It is not related to the charge level. The range mode setting is irrelevant here because climate control was turned off anyway and battery heating was not needed because the weather was warm enough. More about Range Mode can be found here.

    Also, check out this video where they compare Bolt's and Model S' CR score to the EPA score. Such comparisons wouldn't make any sense if they were not charging to 100%. Similarly, Model S and X scores were compared to EPA rated range in a different CR article here.
     
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  19. Kbm3

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    Could be my mistake. I thought I remembered in comments shortly after this article, that CR only charged to 80 or 90%. I assumed that extended range mode meant using 100% of the battery. It looks like this is not the case.

    Sorry, but thanks for your reply clearing up my confusion.

    Your detailed posts are some of my favorites.
     
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  20. Troy

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    #20 Troy, Dec 25, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2017
    In the Tesla Roadster 1, range mode meant 100% charge instead of 90%. See the screenshot here. However, in the Model S/X/3, range mode means reduced maximum power for climate control and battery heating. This setting was irrelevant during the Consumer Reports test because climate control was turned off anyway and battery heating was not needed because the weather was warm enough. You can watch the following video to learn more about the S/X/3 range mode setting and check out the Model S manual page 62 here or Model 3 manual page 52 here. Here is a screenshot from the manual:

    [​IMG]

     
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