1. Model 3 is coming. Get your Model 3 Owners Club apparel today!


    Dismiss Notice

Should I Wait To Buy The Model 3?

Discussion in 'Reserving, Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Bobby Garrity, Sep 5, 2017.

More threads by Bobby Garrity
  1. Bobby Garrity

    Active Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2017
    Messages:
    106
    Likes Received:
    60
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    North Massapequa, NY
    Country:
    Country
    I'll spare you the reasons why I want to buy the Tesla Model 3, because if you're on this forum you probably already know, if not share, them. But I would like to share with you some reasons why I may choose to not buy it as soon as my reservation is ready, and hear your opinions.

    1. Whoa, that's coming fast!

    So when I made my reservation in November of 2016 I did so expecting that the car would not be available to me until late 2018 the earliest, and possibly not until mid 2019 (a certain winged SUV may have influenced this thinking). But then, after the delivery event, I see this: upload_2017-9-5_15-34-33.png

    Well that's a lot sooner than I expected. I could get a car as soon as April? Wow.

    2. Pricey Options

    The options pricing came in higher than most of us, including me, had expected. I know this issue has been covered extensively on the forum, so I won't discuss it here, except to note that the car I want will be more expensive than I had originally imagined, so waiting will give me more time to save up that shmoney (this will of course have to considered against the phase-out of the federal tax credit, but I'll revisit that issue when Tesla sells their 200,000th car in the US).

    3. I Have a Car

    So my current car is fine. The odometer reads 86,000mi (138,000km) so it has plenty of life left in it. I treat it well, too. While I hate burning lots of gas on such an old and inefficient machine, my point here is that it works. So I have no immediate need for an automobile.

    4. Where Will I Be?

    I'm currently a junior in college. At this point, I really have no idea where I will end up in the next few years. I don't know what kind of job I'll have, or what city I will live in. I may very well live and work somewhere where owning any car, let alone one as expensive as a Tesla, would be a complete waste.

    5. More Options

    So we already knew the dual motors is coming later, but we recently learned from Elon that air suspension is coming in the near future as well. What other options can we see in the next few years? I personally am hoping for a CCS port. And will there be some reduction in the options pricing?

    6. Used

    So we have discussed this before as well. Most of us agree that it will be quite a while before we see significant discounts from buying a used Model 3. But I may very well be willing to wait quite a while. And buying a used car is by far the best way to get a great value.

    7. Other Stuff

    Refinement of Autopilot, expansion of the Supercharger network and other charging infrastructure, improvement of software, and many other things that get better over time reward waiting.

    So I know that there are some critical questions that only I can answer (like for example, how bad do I want it?), but I would like to hear your thoughts on some of the points I brought up. I know some are purely personal concerns, but others are general. Also, the Model 3 will certainly be my next car. If I do choose to wait, I will not cancel the reservation, just hold onto it.

    Thanks for your help,
    -Bobby
     
    • Like Like x 4
    • Agree Agree x 2
  2. Michael Russo

    Top-Contributor
    Moderator
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2016
    Messages:
    3,729
    Likes Received:
    2,261
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    Belgium now, SW France when my Model ≡ gets here
    Tesla Owner:
    Reservation
    Country:
    Country
    Bobby, hi. Good reflections...
    My easy answer is for sure you should wait as long as you can mainly because in the meantime you increase your eggnest which gives you maximum flexibility. Remember that when your number comes up, which, depending on which configuration you're leaning to, could be as early as April yet also as far as YE18, you can delay morphing the reservation into your order by 6 months...
    A lot of things will be clearer to you and us all in a year...
    In this case, time is on your side! :cool:

    And good luck on the successful continuation of your studies!! :rainbow::rainbow::rainbow:
     
    • Like Like x 2
  3. eye.surgeon

    Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2017
    Messages:
    20
    Likes Received:
    9
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    California
    Country:
    Country
    Most fnancial experts would tell you that spending Model 3 money on a car while a jr in college falls somewhere between crazy and ludicrous.
     
    • Agree Agree x 7
  4. SoFlaModel3

    Impatiently Waiting
    Moderator M3OC Supporting Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2017
    Messages:
    3,042
    Likes Received:
    1,414
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    South Florida
    Tesla Owner:
    Reservation
    Country:
    Country
    A few thoughts and I don't mean to pry, but you asked for opinions. What kind of income do you have right now as a junior in college? The reason being that if you are unfamiliar with how the federal tax credit works, you can only claim the amount up to your tax liability which may be beneath the threshold.

    More thoughts -- you're talking about options so clearly you're not looking base model.

    That's an expensive car for a college kid nearing graduation.

    I'm about 12 years your senior. My senior year of college my parents leased a brand new Infiniti G35S for me and the car became my responsibility as soon as I graduated. It didn't kill me. That said, I lived at home after college and saved every penny outside of the car, gas, and my phone essentially.

    A few more thoughts -- you don't know where you'll live and you don't know what the electricity situation will be.

    My recommendation is wait and see. You can't get hurt holding the reservation. When you're ready punch the ticket!
     
    • Like Like x 4
    • Agree Agree x 3
  5. Bobby Garrity

    Active Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2017
    Messages:
    106
    Likes Received:
    60
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    North Massapequa, NY
    Country:
    Country
    Did someone say..... Ludicrous mode?
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  6. SuperMario

    Active Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2017
    Messages:
    26
    Likes Received:
    26
    Trophy Points:
    13
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    Ottawa
    Country:
    Country
    Putting myself in your shoes, I agree that you should wait it out. As time passes, it should become more obvious as to which decision is best suited for your situation
     
    • Like Like x 2
  7. Bobby Garrity

    Active Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2017
    Messages:
    106
    Likes Received:
    60
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    North Massapequa, NY
    Country:
    Country
    I'll admit that this is the part of the tax credit I'm not entirely familiar with. I probably am below the threshold, but I'll be sure to look into how it works long before the time comes.


    Very good point! I had thought about charging for where I currently live, but had overlooked the issue of charging where I may live in the future. I certainly wouldn't want to be in a situation where I am about to move into a building only to find that I have no way of charging my car.

    Hey, do whatever you want with your car, but I certainly won't be punching ANY part of my Model 3!
     
    • Funny Funny x 3
  8. SoFlaModel3

    Impatiently Waiting
    Moderator M3OC Supporting Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2017
    Messages:
    3,042
    Likes Received:
    1,414
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    South Florida
    Tesla Owner:
    Reservation
    Country:
    Country
    To make up an example for you. Let's say you currently earn $20,000/year. Assuming you file as a single.

    You're in the 15% bracket.

    Without knowing your deductions (and mind you those make this worse for you), you are taxed at $932.50 plus 15% of the excess over $9,325.

    So...

    $932.50 + (15%) x ($20,000-$9,325) = $2,533.75

    So if your car qualifies for the $3,750 tax credit you could only get $2,533.75 and the balance may not be rolled over to the next tax year.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  9. Mark C

    Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2016
    Messages:
    206
    Likes Received:
    148
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    Arab, AL
    Country:
    Country
    Except perhaps that uppy-downy pedal under the right foot! :D
     
    • Like Like x 2
  10. Dogwhistle

    Active Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2017
    Messages:
    38
    Likes Received:
    32
    Trophy Points:
    18
    City & State/Province:
    Delaware
    Tesla Owner:
    Reservation
    Country:
    Country
    Junior in College? Buy a used Volt to get an electric fix, and save the new Tesla for after you're well-established in your career! It sucks being car poor as a young guy, trust me. ;)
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. TCWillis

    Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2017
    Messages:
    6
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    Austin TX
    Country:
    Country
    Hmm... I suppose there's a decent chance that if you buy one in April you could re-sale it for a profit, but otherwise no you should wait. I'm 38 and still on my 2nd car. My philosophy is buy them new and drive em until the wheels fall off. I have a lot of regrets in life, but my time without a car payment isn't one of them. One of the better decisions I have ever made.

    That said, even my intern has a nicer car from me so hopefully Tesla can get me something soon.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  12. BobLoblaw

    Active Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2017
    Messages:
    114
    Likes Received:
    69
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    Kelowna BC
    Country:
    Country
    Just judging from what you've said about pricing of options, etc...I think you really need to ask yourself two questions.

    1.) Can I afford a Model 3

    2.) If so, which one can I afford comfortably

    Take it from there. The marketing on the Model 3 was all about "for the masses" but the reality is that a lot of people won't be able to comfortably afford this car, even if the bank is happy to loan them the money. That's a personal decision and not one I'd make for someone else. It may be that the base model car fits your budget the best out of the available options, and even though you may miss out on the tax credit it may be the best way to go.

    Just judging from what you've said, I say hold out - even one or two years from now used Model 3's will be available, and you'll have both a better idea of what your future holds and what the future of the car is.
     
  13. mkg3

    Active Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 25, 2017
    Messages:
    73
    Likes Received:
    26
    Trophy Points:
    18
    City & State/Province:
    SoCal
    Country:
    Country
    Since none of us know your financial situation, it would be silly for us to advise you if you should or should not spend your money on TM3 (I do the TM3 because every time I see just M3, I think of BMW M3 - probably because I used to have one...). The fact that you're a college student is irrelevant because there are plenty of wealthy students.

    Its completely a value proposition that you need to answer. If buying it worth it to you, that's fine as long as you can make it work. However, if buying it makes you regret it, then its a poor choice to get it. But that said, you can always sell it and given the tight initial supply, you'll most likely not lose any money on the whole thing.

    Personally, I hate spending lots of money on a depreciating asset like a car. My wife wanted TM-S when it first came out. I talked through the logic with her and while its a nice ride, she understood why not to get one. So instead I bought TSLA stocks around $45/share then and it has made enough for us to buy multiple TM-S but we still don't own one. Actually, its bit too big for my liking. I prefer more mid-sized vehicles.

    I also knew back then that the technology would change too fast for us to buy and lease would be the only sensible thing to do (since you're only paying for depreciation, and Tesla guaranteed residual value back then), but we drove too many miles to make lease a sensible proposition. Btw, technology is still changing very fast, especially AI, autonomous driving and range vs charge time.

    We are buying TM3 because my wife needs a new car to commute in and living in CA, she'll be able to use HOV (carpool) lane by herself. Besides, she gets her Tesla. We would have bought something in the price range so why not TM3!
     
  14. Kizzy

    Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2016
    Messages:
    282
    Likes Received:
    110
    Trophy Points:
    43
    City & State/Province:
    California
    Tesla Owner:
    Reservation
    Country:
    Country
    #14 Kizzy, Sep 7, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2017
    @LookUp put together a Google spreadsheet that I've found helpful (just create a copy and make your changes in the most recent calculator tab version). It lets you calculate payments based on various interest rates and payment terms, and options. It does so taking into account your savings but not rebates/tax credits (which aren't available when taking out a loan).

    Original thread here.

    Also, be sure to look into local rebates (state, local air quality groups, and utilities).
     
    • Like Like x 1
  15. OneSixtyToOne

    Active Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2017
    Messages:
    59
    Likes Received:
    19
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    San Marcos, CA
    Country:
    Country
    The fact you are a junior in college makes me think you should wait. One big factor in determining EV suitability is you daily commute, not just the length but location. What if you end up in Manhattan?
     
  16. TCWillis

    Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2017
    Messages:
    6
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Gender:
    Male
    City & State/Province:
    Austin TX
    Country:
    Country
    I used to keep a spreadsheet of all my apple purchases and what they would be worth if I had instead bought apple stock. I feel like a similar spreadsheet for any pre-2013 Tesla Model S owner would make them very sad.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
  17. LookUp

    Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2017
    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    3
    City & State/Province:
    Portland, OR
    Country:
    Country
    Thanks for the shoutout! I will be releasing a new version of this in the next couple weeks, doing lots of cleanup, etc.
     

Share This Page

Model 3 Owners Club © 2017. All rights reserved.
Model 3 Owners Club (M3OC) is an enthusiast club and is not affiliated with Tesla Motors or the Tesla Motors Club Forum (TMC).
All Tesla logos are trademarks or registered trademarks of Tesla Motors.