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[Speculations] Peek into Tesla’s near future

Discussion in 'Tesla Discussions' started by Kelvin, May 4, 2017.

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  1. Kelvin

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    #1 Kelvin, May 4, 2017
    Last edited: May 7, 2017
    According to the earnings call of Q1 2017, it looks like the gigafactory 1 and Fremont factory can achieve production rate of 100k Model S and Model X, and 400k Model 3 annually at some point in 2018. It indicates that in 2018 Tesla will not produce 500k units in total, but will have production rate equivalent to 500k units per year.

    In 2019-2020 timeframe, it’s unlikely that Fremont + G1 production would cap at 500k per year. However to achieve 1m per year or 20k per week target in 2020, a new Model Y factory is essential.

    The Model Y factory is likely to be the second Gigafactory in the US, as previously announced that the coming Gigafactories will produce vehicle and battery in the same facility. With one Gigafactory in China and one in Europe, the story of announcing Gigafactory 3, 4 and 5 late this year emerges perfectly. However, the Model Y factory might not produce battery until production capacity in Gigafactory 1 is saturated.

    It’s unclear where the Tesla Semi and pickup truck will be produced at this point. Given the Model 3 ramp is the #1 priority for Tesla and it is totally capable of using all the Fremont production capacity, it’s reasonable to assume other segment of Tesla vehicles namely, Model Y, semi, pickup, maybe minibus, will be produced in a new facility.

    As estimated by Elon Musk in a previous earnings report conference call, battery consumption for stationary storage will roughly be the same or more than consumption for vehicles. Assuming a 70 kWh average for each vehicle, at run rate of 1m vehicle per year, Tesla will need to produce 70 GWh of battery for vehicles and the roughly the same amount for Power pack and Power wall each year. It adds up to 140 GWh annually which is inline with 150 GWh design capacity of Gigafactory 1.

    This roadmap is indeed a way to become an energy giant. With massive revenue coming from Model 3 sales, Tesla could build all the new factories slowly without raising more money. But it also means that Tesla will not be profitable in the process. That's at least 5 years in the near future. I'm sure it gives a mixed feeling for investors.
     
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    • Michael Russo

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      @Kelvin - thank you for this perspective... Yes the medium to long term growth potential is phenomenal and will require a gradual, well sequenced build up of capacity (for batteries as well as the vehicles).
      Only piece you did not factor in is the planned expansion of Fremont for which permits have sought - if I remember correctly, this was going to almost double the size so my thought was this was going to be used for Model Y... IMHO
       
    • Daliman

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      Thanks I think that is a pretty reasonable summary of what Elon has said. Freemont will be expanding in the next two years and I think may be used to produce Semi trucks and allow for Model 3 capacity over 500000. The semis are going to use Model 3 engines and parts and it seems now will be in production first.

      The Model Y and the pickup seem to be timed close together and we now know the Y will have a different platform and be built in another gigafactory that is more automated. Putting that somewhere in the southeast as hinted before with battery and solar production integtated seems like a logical step.

      Bus seemed very uncertain. Will have to make Boring machines, Freemont?
       
    • Guy Weathersby

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      Another possibility is that the first Model Y line might be part of Gigafactory One. That would be consistent with desire to integrate production.
       
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      • kp623

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        What will happen to Tesla if SAE/Govt mandates Lidar for FSD in cars?
         
      • garsh

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        That would be a silly, stupid thing for government to do. Do you have any reason to suspect that such a thing will come to pass?
         
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        • Steve C

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          After listening to the quarterly call, it sounds like there just isn't going to be room for the Y in Giga 1. Most likely a whole new facility for the Y and the Alien Dreadnought that will build it.
           
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          • MelindaV

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            in the call an analyst asked if vehicles could be made in the Gigafactory and Elon's response essentially was the building will be larger than anything else on the planet, and that size is needed for it's current battery/battery pack/Model 3 motor fabrication. So, don't think the Y will be there.
             
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            • John Edighoffer

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              But he added that there was room to expand
               
            • John Edighoffer

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              That should be "expand"
               
            • Blaine Havens

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              Yeah. I Agree. the Gigafactory, as big as it is, I think it could be big enough to accommodate 500k cars, the batteries, and whatever else they make, but that is it. The model Y with its special production process will need a new factory (like the ones mentioned earlier). I thought it was interesting that they model Y won't be extremely similar to model 3, but with a higher roof and falcon wing doors. So what is the model Y going to actually be??!!
               
            • TrevP

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              Gigafactory 1 was never intended to build cars, only cells/packs. They decided to move some of the drivetrain manufacturing to it as Fremont it's getting full. They did mention in the past that future Gigafactories would be combined battery/car factories. My take is that Model Y will be built in an entirely new Gigafactory
               
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              • Daliman

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                My take is that they are engineering the Model Y and the next US gigafactory together. Because they are going to have limited room at Freemont once Model 3 hits full production they needed to plan a new factory anyway. Both the vehicle and factory will be next generation for Tesla. More automated production of a simpler different type of platform.
                 
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