According to the earnings call of Q1 2017, it looks like the gigafactory 1 and Fremont factory can achieve production rate of 100k Model S and Model X, and 400k Model 3 annually at some point in 2018. It indicates that in 2018 Tesla will not produce 500k units in total, but will have production rate equivalent to 500k units per year. In 2019-2020 timeframe, it’s unlikely that Fremont + G1 production would cap at 500k per year. However to achieve 1m per year or 20k per week target in 2020, a new Model Y factory is essential. The Model Y factory is likely to be the second Gigafactory in the US, as previously announced that the coming Gigafactories will produce vehicle and battery in the same facility. With one Gigafactory in China and one in Europe, the story of announcing Gigafactory 3, 4 and 5 late this year emerges perfectly. However, the Model Y factory might not produce battery until production capacity in Gigafactory 1 is saturated. It’s unclear where the Tesla Semi and pickup truck will be produced at this point. Given the Model 3 ramp is the #1 priority for Tesla and it is totally capable of using all the Fremont production capacity, it’s reasonable to assume other segment of Tesla vehicles namely, Model Y, semi, pickup, maybe minibus, will be produced in a new facility. As estimated by Elon Musk in a previous earnings report conference call, battery consumption for stationary storage will roughly be the same or more than consumption for vehicles. Assuming a 70 kWh average for each vehicle, at run rate of 1m vehicle per year, Tesla will need to produce 70 GWh of battery for vehicles and the roughly the same amount for Power pack and Power wall each year. It adds up to 140 GWh annually which is inline with 150 GWh design capacity of Gigafactory 1. This roadmap is indeed a way to become an energy giant. With massive revenue coming from Model 3 sales, Tesla could build all the new factories slowly without raising more money. But it also means that Tesla will not be profitable in the process. That's at least 5 years in the near future. I'm sure it gives a mixed feeling for investors.