Tesla economic outlook for Model ☰ viability

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LUXMAN

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#3
Surprised it is on the SEEKING ALPHA site! Usually a Tesla hating site.
 

Michael Russo

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minogully

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#6
While the news reporting is likely true, I keep on wondering why Forbes generally presents it in the most unfavorable way for T≡SLA?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/bertels...teries-spells-trouble-for-tesla/#afd0f182c6e7
Thanks for posting that. I read it, but I fail to see how producing more expensive batteries in the gigafactory necessarily means tesla will fail, like they are implying. It just means that they would be losing some potential profits.

But even if China's batteries were priced less than those at the Gigafactory, they would automatically be more expensive for Tesla since purchasing from China introduces increased transportation costs. Then there are the duty and tariffs that may or may not apply. Also the overhead of having two businesses involved in the supply chain (Tesla and the Chinese company). After all of that is factored in, I would be surprised if Chinese batteries were still cheaper.
 

Michael Russo

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Thanks for posting that. I read it, but I fail to see how producing more expensive batteries in the gigafactory necessarily means tesla will fail, like they are implying. It just means that they would be losing some potential profits.(...)
Absolutely with you, hence my question on Forbes' motives! I have confidence that, with technology, the formidable demand generated and the size it implies, T≡SLA will know how to successfully progress on accomplishing Elon's mission!
 

minogully

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Absolutely with you, hence my question on Forbes' motives! I have confidence that, with technology, the formidable demand generated and the size it implies, T≡SLA will know how to successfully progress on accomplishing Elon's mission!
I'm not an invester, nor am I in business, and if I can see through the cracks in their logic, how much more so will someone who's trained in business or investment.

So I think articles like these won't actually affect Tesla much, but instead may reduced Forbes' credibility.

Still, it bothers me when misinformation is spread on the net.
 

Badback

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#9
A robot making batteries in Nevada does not cost less if you move it to China.
What is less is the profits of the Chinese company which is subsidized by the Chinese government.
This is an old tactic, first: drive the competition out of business with artificially low prices, then: when you are the only supplier, jack the price up.
Forbes doesn't make anything, they only make it difficult for others.
 

Steve C

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#10
If Tesla only made $5,000 per model 3 sold, they would profit 2.5bln after selling 500k of them.

I think I'm being conservative on the margin as well. Look for 15-25% margin on the tricked out ludicrous models. IMHO.
 

garsh

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A robot making batteries in Nevada does not cost less if you move it to China.
This right here! As long as Tesla can make an alien dreadnaught, China won't stand a chance.
 
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#12

Todd Harrison

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You also have to take into account that not all batteries are the same and there seems to be rapid development in the field. Once innovation stops and they become a commodity is when the Chinese will have an advantage. If a few car batteries get out like the hover board batteries the price won't matter.
 

Michael Russo

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#14
(...) Once innovation stops and they become a commodity is when the Chinese will have an advantage. (...)
Fortunately we have a few semesters before that happens... :D
 

Hezekiah

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#15
I have followed Forbes on Facebook for awhile. And they try to ride the line, but but they usually lean a little away from Tesla. Usually they get a bunch of comments from people who see through it.

Robotics are best done in America where you have the engineers and designers.
 

Red Sage

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#16
Whenever I've picked up a copy of Forbes from a pile of magazines in recent years, the articles have actually been pretty decent on a variety of subjects. The only part of those that seem to be written in a decidedly wacko fashion are the 'Letter from the Chairman and Editor-in-Chief'... Steve Forbes himself. I found that surprising.

He wrote yesterday:
"Trump's promise of aggressive deregulation will help not only economically but also in healing our body politic."

That made me laugh, and laugh, and laugh some more. Every single major financial disaster the U.S. has been through for the past 35 years has been in the wake of deregulation. Here we go again.
 

Hezekiah

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Whenever I've picked up a copy of Forbes from a pile of magazines in recent years, the articles have actually been pretty decent on a variety of subjects. The only part of those that seem to be written in a decidedly wacko fashion are the 'Letter from the Chairman and Editor-in-Chief'... Steve Forbes himself. I found that surprising.

He wrote yesterday:
"Trump's promise of aggressive deregulation will help not only economically but also in healing our body politic."

That made me laugh, and laugh, and laugh some more. Every single major financial disaster the U.S. has been through for the past 35 years has been in the wake of deregulation. Here we go again.

Obviously those who deregulate don't think it's going to cause a financial disaster. There are at least a few economic schools of thought that aren't laughable. But I assume these threads are supposed to stay politics-neutral. Musk seems not too worried about Trump, we can follow Musk's lead as far as the model 3 goes.
 

Red Sage

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#18
Obviously those who deregulate don't think it's going to cause a financial disaster. There are at least a few economic schools of thought that aren't laughable. But I assume these threads are supposed to stay politics-neutral. Musk seems not too worried about Trump, we can follow Musk's lead as far as the model 3 goes.
True enough. But, note my opinion is the words in your quote I bolded for emphasis. There is apparently also a memory issue at hand. :D

The most recent of the disasters, seems likely to be forgotten as well. As a reminder...

The former Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, has conceded that the global financial crisis has exposed a "mistake" in the free market ideology which guided his 18-year stewardship of US monetary policy.

...

"I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organisations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms," said Greenspan.
--
The Guardian, 'Greenspan - I was wrong about the economy. Sort of'

Those who want to deregulate often forget there was actually a really good reason for the regulations to exist in the first place.
 
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Hezekiah

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#19
True enough. But, note my opinion is the words in your quote I bolded for emphasis. There is apparently also a memory issue at hand. :D

The most recent of the disasters, seems likely to be forgotten as well. As a reminder...

The former Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, has conceded that the global financial crisis has exposed a "mistake" in the free market ideology which guided his 18-year stewardship of US monetary policy.

...

"I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organisations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms," said Greenspan.
--
The Guardian, 'Greenspan - I was wrong about the economy. Sort of'

Those who want to deregulate often forget there was actually a really good reason for the regulations to exist in the first place.
That's very funny in a middle school kind of way. But I don't think there's any evidence that Hayek had a memory problem.
 

Red Sage

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#20
That's very funny in a middle school kind of way. But I don't think there's any evidence that Hayek had a memory problem.
One of my favorite personal mottos goes:
"If it was funny in Third Grade? It's still funny."
So, yeah... I rather enjoy juvenile humor. Hence, why I also have the disclaimer:
"All Red Sage's posts on the internet are Closed Captioned for the Humour Impaired."
:D