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Tesla Master Plan Part Deux is up!

Discussion in 'News from Electrek.co' started by RSSFeed, Jul 20, 2016.

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  1. TrevP

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    #1 TrevP, Jul 20, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2016
    Read it and learn what's in store for the planet ;)

    https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/blog/master-plan-part-deux

    Big news in here:

    1. Compact SUV on Model 3 platform (we knew this: Model Y)
    2. New kind of pickup truck (we knew this)
    3. Tesla Semi Truck
    4. High passenger density urban transport
    The last two are in early development slated hopefully to be unveiled next year.

    Once full autonomy is in place (approx 6B miles driven and approved by regulators) Tesla will allows us to "share" our vehicles in the fleet to generate income

    "So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:
    Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
    Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
    Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
    Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it"
     
  2. MelindaV

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    and the tesla site is just spinning. ha, apparently a few people have been eagerly waiting
     
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  3. TrevP

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    For those who can't reach Tesla's site here it is in it's entirety:

    Master Plan, Part Deux
    Elon Musk July 20, 2016
    The first master plan that I wrote 10 years ago is now in the final stages of completion. It wasn't all that complicated and basically consisted of:
    1. Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive
    2. Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price
    3. Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car
      And...
    4. Provide solar power. No kidding, this has literally been on our website for 10 years.
    The reason we had to start off with step 1 was that it was all I could afford to do with what I made from PayPal. I thought our chances of success were so low that I didn't want to risk anyone's funds in the beginning but my own. The list of successful car company startups is short. As of 2016, the number of American car companies that haven't gone bankrupt is a grand total of two: Ford and Tesla. Starting a car company is idiotic and an electric car company is idiocy squared.
    Also, a low volume car means a much smaller, simpler factory, albeit with most things done by hand. Without economies of scale, anything we built would be expensive, whether it was an economy sedan or a sports car. While at least some people would be prepared to pay a high price for a sports car, no one was going to pay $100k for an electric Honda Civic, no matter how cool it looked.
    Part of the reason I wrote the first master plan was to defend against the inevitable attacks Tesla would face accusing us of just caring about making cars for rich people, implying that we felt there was a shortage of sports car companies or some other bizarre rationale. Unfortunately, the blog didn't stop countless attack articles on exactly these grounds, so it pretty much completely failed that objective.
    However, the main reason was to explain how our actions fit into a larger picture, so that they would seem less random. The point of all this was, and remains, accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, so that we can imagine far into the future and life is still good. That's what "sustainable" means. It's not some silly, hippy thing -- it matters for everyone.
    By definition, we must at some point achieve a sustainable energy economy or we will run out of fossil fuels to burn and civilization will collapse. Given that we must get off fossil fuels anyway and that virtually all scientists agree that dramatically increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon levels is insane, the faster we achieve sustainability, the better.
    Here is what we plan to do to make that day come sooner:
    Integrate Energy Generation and Storage
    Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works, empowering the individual as their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world. One ordering experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app.
    We can't do this well if Tesla and SolarCity are different companies, which is why we need to combine and break down the barriers inherent to being separate companies. That they are separate at all, despite similar origins and pursuit of the same overarching goal of sustainable energy, is largely an accident of history. Now that Tesla is ready to scale Powerwall and SolarCity is ready to provide highly differentiated solar, the time has come to bring them together.
    Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport
    Today, Tesla addresses two relatively small segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.
    What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.
    In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.
    With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.
    Autonomy
    As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability, meaning that any given system in the car could break and your car will still drive itself safely. It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.
    Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators. We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day.
    I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the future. The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.
    According to the recently released 2015 NHTSA report, automotive fatalities increased by 8% to one death every 89 million miles. Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice that number and the system gets better every day. It would no more make sense to disable Tesla's Autopilot, as some have called for, than it would to disable autopilot in aircraft, after which our system is named.
    It is also important to explain why we refer to Autopilot as "beta". This is not beta software in any normal sense of the word. Every release goes through extensive internal validation before it reaches any customers. It is called beta in order to decrease complacency and indicate that it will continue to improve (Autopilot is always off by default). Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed.
    Sharing
    When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination.
    You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.
    In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are.
    So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:
    Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
    Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
    Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
    Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
     
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  4. John

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    In Elon's Part Deux, he says:

    A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.
    By third part, he means autonomous, shared transportation.

    Discuss amongst yourselves...
     
  5. TrevP

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    I had a site checker watching every minute so I knew it the instant it went live ;)
     
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  6. Jaspal

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    How do you guys feel about him talking about "sharing" and how you can "Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it"

    Does it seem far fetched or am I missing the point?

    Is this a reference to a Tesla Taxi service haha?
     
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  7. John

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    To me the most interesting parts:

    1. No cheaper sedan after Model 3
    2. Pickup truck (though I am not interested, America certainly is)
    3. Factory as a product from first principles (just lightly mentioned)
    4. Autonomy sooner than people expect (which for most people would be "ever," frankly)

    I'm really looking forward to elaborations of how much better manufacturing can get with a fresh approach.
     
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  8. Dave Davenport

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    Robotics and Sensor industries are growing at a rapid pace. As he said, the version 1 to 3 of robotics can give 5 to 10x efficiency gains. He is modernizing manufacturing in the US which has been fairly stagnant for a while since companies became more interested in pleasing investors than investing in R&D to do new and better things.

    I am starting to invest in robotics and sensor companies as well as Tesla, Solar City, Mobileye and NVidia. Not just because of Tesla, but because these industries are growing at a rapid pace and the products coming out of them are changing the world we live in. Tesla is a part of that and I applaud this Part Deux.
     
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  9. Dave Davenport

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    It is interesting. A lot of younger people who don't have families supplement their income driving for Uber, so I can see how this can be helpful. My car sits in the parking lot for 9-10 hours a day when I am at work. I am not sure about using my car for ride sharing, but people do it for their houses, so the plan works on that level.
     
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  10. MelindaV

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    as I was waiting for something to finish at work, I figured I'd check in on twitter to see if it'd been posted yet, and it was listed 1minute earlier - so I came upon it totally by chance right after it was up.
     
  11. MelindaV

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    earlier this summer there was a ton of conversation about full autonomous car sharing and making $ from it. Some people seemed all for it. Others were "I don't want some stranger in my car and especially if Im not there and they could be smoking, eating, f'ing, etc". I'm solidly in the second group.
     
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  12. TE3LA

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    I had the same instinct, but what if you had a live / recorded video stream available on your phone and access to their credit card with pre-athorization to charge extra $$$ for terms violations? Slap on a Telsa insurance policy for shared fleet participants and I could be convinced.
     
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  13. Mad Hungarian

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    So amazing to finally see this!
    Now solar, buses, full autonomy didn't come as any surprise as they've all been discussed publicly. Ride sharing hasn't been "officially" admitted to till now, but I do seem to recall some "no comment" moments that made the point. The pickup's obviously a no-brainer for North America, still, nice to see them commit to it. But big rigs was definitely unexpected! I suspect the folks at Nikola are NOT going to be pleased. Only disappointment? No underground volcanic lair Maybe that's going to be in Part Tres? :D.
     
  14. JWardell

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    I'm so excited about this, I should have known Tesla would continue to shoot beyond expectations!

    It seems crazy at first, but it's all very logical and iterative. I've been saying for a while that Uber drivers are just temporary until the cars drive themselves. Uber alone will assure we have on-demand affordable transportation, and once we have that, the potential to change transportation is significant for everyone as we will need less busses, second cars, or for many any cars at all.

    Ford, GM, and BMW have already started limited tests of sharing out your own cars zipcar-style...
    http://jalopnik.com/reachnow-car-sharing-lets-you-borrow-a-bmw-or-lend-ou-1770050445
    it's only one step further for an automated tesla to come to you when you need it!

    And we all know how bad trucking is, freight trains are a fraction of what they were decades ago as we ship things around with gas on roadways. It will significantly help both the environment and reduce our traffic inconvenience when we can replace big rigs with automatic electric trucks. I love that Tesla continue to think outside of their box. Maybe they can team up with Nikola trucks to add their automation features...call it a Nikola Tesla! :)

    All that said, I really just wish the big surprise was Model 3 shipments starting 9 months early! I'll keep dreaming...
     
  15. JOSEPHWAR

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    Its exciting times to see Elon propose this as part of his future plans for the company. Even if 1/3rd of the plan becomes reality, its still pretty amazing. I think he will succeed in making something happen, be it this or if future circumstances change the plan in a minor way. Semi trucks are already underway in other manufacturers. Its a no brainer knowing how much they pollute and how often theyre on the road.
    Im interested in the actual design on the bus seating arrangement which from what i read will be different from the conventional middle entry walkway and two doors. Fascinating stuff. Maybe like a trolley arrangement but in a bus form? And have room for strollers and bicycles too?
    Im looking forward to seeing their pickup truck and compact suv.
    As he spoke of the tesla fleet and having others be inside your own tesla, i could feel the tremors of owners raging with disdain in having the idea of some stranger taking a crap in their tesla. So basically i felt it coming. But i forgive them for the thought initially is and would be the same for anyone who has invested so much money into owning their tesla. What i honestly think he meant was that at some point...owning a car wont make much sense if its just sitting there when everyone has a vehicle the same as yours and it drives itself to where ever you want. Kinda sounds like a personal bus but instead you own it, it takes you to ur exact destination, and it makes you money while your not using it. But how do we avoid people barfing over my beautiful future machine? ...hmmmm....maybe at first he will let only other tesla owners have access to the fleet. Maybe owners who are responsible enough to care for the ride as much as the one they themselves purchased. That makes more sense. Im also guessing they can have some sort of liability insurance with whomever decides to accept the terms of having access to the ride. Meaning, if you say yes to riding in one, you also accept responsibility if you do something really irresponsible.
    Im still laughing about how others are depicting autonomous vehicles to be so wrong when in fact its so right. It feels inevitable.
    So as far as solar and having improved batteries storing energy for my home and the grid sounds great. Definitely hope to see this layout. They dont allow solarcity in my state yet but i do hope that changes in the future.
     
  16. garsh

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    I was disappointed in this. I was hoping that an even more affordable car would still be an explicit objective.

    I can see two possible reasons for why this is not the case. One is that Elon doesn't currently believe that the cost of manufacturing a useful electric car (200+ mile range) can actually get much lower than what will be achieved with the Model 3. The other is that he sees the manufacturing cost of a useful electric car gradually going down as scale is ramped up, but that there are no more low-hanging-fruit improvements to be made after gigafactory and his planned model 3 manufacturing improvements. The latter at least will provide lower cost vehicles in the long run.​
     
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  17. garsh

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    Also not part of the plan (but I didn't expect it to be), but I hope that there is a redesign (for manufacturability) of the Model S and Model X at some point. I think I'll be in the market for a Model X in about 5 years, but I really hope they can bring the price down by then. I think the Model Y will end up being too small for me - I'd like 3-row seating.

    Or better yet, something closer to a minivan. Even the Model X is quite tight compared to my Honda Odyssey.
     
  18. garsh

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    I'm also a little disappointed that Elon didn't get into details explaining why an SCTY acquisition helps both companies. Why would that be preferable to simply working with a separate SCTY entity? I was hoping to learn more about how an acquisition helps here.
     
  19. Daliman

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    I am quite excited about the new Master plan, and this time we are allowed to tell everyone about it. A lot of what follows is probably obvious and has been said before on these forums, but I wanted to sum up my thoughts about the plan. I think the key to understanding Tesla from the beginning is the central goal of accelerating sustainable transport and the energy to power that transport. This is not an accident but a deliberate choice to disrupt the transportation and energy production sectors, the two largest sectors of CO2 emissions and drivers of climate change. When the company started there was almost no possibility that electric vehicles would form a significant part of the market within the next 20 years, no one was doing the research and the auto and oil companies were total vested in ensuring this didn't occur. There was even less chance that energy production would shift to non CO2 producing renewables, again little research and an enormous entrenched industry. The idea of an electric car startup surviving and disrupting two of the most established industries on the planet was total madness squared. Fortunately for all of us Elon and his team were crazy enough and he had enough money left from Paypal to get through the first stage of the plan.

    What has developed in 10 years is an enormous almost miraculous shift. By doing the research and showing the economic case Tesla, although not a truly large auto producer or profitable enterprise yet has made an enormous contribution to achieving its purpose. Open sourcing their patents to allow other companies to take a running start at developing EV's is another crucial part of the puzzle. From almost nothing electric car startups are now everywhere, in China BYD is already making more vehicles than Tesla and a wider variety, but it likely never would have existed without the seed planted by Tesla. Given the size of the markets in China and India it seems likely that there will be several large companies competing to make very cheap EV's using much cheaper bases costs than Tesla has. I think it is likely that Tesla isn't taking a shot at a lower priced vehicle largely because China is likely gong to produce a lot of them. The Tesla model is to make high quality mid priced vehicles affordable.

    What I think Tesla is trying to do is plant as many seeds of disruption as it can in the most important areas. The seeds planted by the Model S and X taking over the luxury segment have lead virtually every automaker in that class to start production or at least plans for competing vehicles, accelerating the advent of sustainable transport much more than Tesla could on its own. The level of response to the Model 3, all of us should be proud of this, has led to at least VW planning an EV future and billions being poured into EV startups, again accelerating sustainable transport much more than Tesla could on its own.

    The transportation targets chosen for the next decade all represent either all remaining major consumer segments, small SUV's and trucks or the most important forms of mass transport. Suv's and trucks remain the two largest transport carbon emitters. Although it is unlikely that Tesla will take over as lead manufacturer in either segment designing a truck that can do 0-60 in 3 sec, has instant torque and air suspension has the potential to force Ford, GM and Chevy to produce competitive vehicles or lose their market share, just as BMW and Mercedes have. The top ten SUV's sell millions of vehicles per year. By showing that a more spacious, powerful safer vehicle is possible again Tesla is likely seeking to force Toyota, Honda and Ford to produce their own to keep their market.

    Transport trucks are the next largest source of transport CO2 emissions. Buses are far less carbon intensive than cars, but are not convenient. Building mass transit with dedicated corridors like subways and LRT's is more convenient but very expensive. Making Bus transport more convenient and dropping carbon emissions to zero Several companies have already started producing traditional buses, it isn't clear exactly what Elon means but I am looking forward to seeing Tesla's design. Producing designs in these diverse but high CO2 emitting areas is likely to push others to do more than Tesla could do on its own. The transportation targets are not the obvious next conventional steps, but are clearly the most important steps in fulfilling Tesla's purpose.

    The most fascinating part for me is manufacturing. For Tesla to actually manufacture a million vehicles a year by 2020 seems impossible given their record. Can they improve the production process by 5-10 fold by 2022? I will be totally fascinated to watch.

    Integrating solar home generation/storage and transportation under one company is actually the most obvious part of the plan and was likely intended from 2006. I have been on the point of installing solar panels for a while, but I am waiting to see what the Tesla package is and if I can buy it in Canada, obvious step given that the solar panel plant will be in Buffalo. Hopefully the purchase of Solar City will happen soon and the package will come soon after.

    The plan as I see it remains focused on Tesla acting as a catalyst to accelerate broader change. Even if it meets the production and growth targets it has it is unlikely that Tesla as a company will produce even 5% of the vehicles needed to make a real change. But by providing the basic engineering, open sourcing its patents and showing consumers that they can demand better of all producers they can stimulate and accelerate a sustainable and hopeful future. Thanks Elon & Tesla, time to get it done.
     
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  20. TrevP

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    I don't think Elon meant making a million cars a year by 2020, at least not in the Fremont plant. A million Tesla cars on the road sure but not out of that factory on a yearly basis.

    If they were to build another factory in Europe they could get close but it takes 2-4 years to build something that big. The fastest car plant built was by BMW in spartanburg SC and that took 2 years.
     

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