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Tesla Model 3: there’s a way to see where you are in the queue, check it before Tesla finds out

Discussion in 'Reserving, Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by RSSFeed, Jun 7, 2016.

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  1. RSSFeed

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    Tesla confirmed having received over 400,000 Model 3 reservations since its unveiling in March 2016, but after adjusting for a few cancellations and a bunch of pre-orders removed under suspicions that they were duplicates, the automaker updated the number last month to 373,000 Model 3 reservations.

    The interest is higher than Tesla expected, which is why the company updated its production ramp up plans to 500,000 vehicles in 2018 (Model S, X and 3 combined) instead of in 2020, but even then, CEO Elon Musk said that someone would need to place a reservation soon in order to get a Model 3 by the end of 2018 – implying that it is virtually sold out from its expected launch in Q4 2017 to the end of 2018.

    It makes your place in the Model 3 reservation queue especially important. So far Tesla has been only issuing non-sequential reservation numbers which don’t mean anything as to where you are in line and the company said that the Model 3 will ship (or more precisely will be available for configuration) based on when you pre-ordered it, but now we might have a way for you to have a better idea of where you stand in the queue. more…

    Filed under: Cars, Tesla Tagged: Model 3, Model 3 queue, model 3 resrvation number, model reservation, reservation, reservation number, Tesla, tesla mdoel 3 queue, Tesla Model 3, tesla reservation [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG][​IMG]

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    • garsh

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      Most of the IDs appear to be a simple global sequential number. This includes much earlier Model S and X reservation numbers too.

      But a few of the numbers being reported at TMC appear to be completely different, leading some to speculate that the sequential numbers *might* be server-based, and different servers *might* have been used to handle different regions. When I took a look, most of the orders in the US and Europe seemed to be behaving as a single set of sequential values. Line waiters on the east coast ordering a little after 10am on 3/31 (like me) have values around 371xxx. European line-waiters have lower values, and west-coast (and later-in-the-day) in-store orders have slightely higher values.
       
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      • Mad Hungarian

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        It looks like there's a second reservation number buried in the source information of everyone's My Tesla web page. Good explanation on Electrek as to how to find it: http://electrek.co/2016/06/07/tesla-model-3-reservation-queue-number/
        I've been following the discussion on TMC and it appears that this number so far does have some kind of sequential correlation to the time of reservation.
        Let's start posting some up here for comparison.

        I reserved in store at Montreal at 9:00 am sharp.
        My number is 370XXX (not sure if there's a security issue with revealing the whole thing, but so far no else has).
         
      • TrevP

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        Yeah I saw that too. My number is 3708xx. Toronto opened at 9AM as well.

        At least for us I don't think it means much given we're on the East coast and in Canada. Tesla not only has to deliver cars on the West coast first, they have to complete homologation for Canada before they deliver them. Model X just got it's certification in Canada and has started deliveries and we're 6 months into 2016...
         
      • TrevP

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        I think it's too early to tell what the numbers really mean but they do indeed show a pattern of sequences. I'm still in touch with a line-keeping comrade who was just behind me, maybe his number might shed some light on the matter. For what it's worth I was very early in line in Toronto and the store opened at 9AM. My number is 3708xx
         
      • Dan Detweiler

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        Just for some perspective from the other end of the reservation line, I reserved mine online on 4/25 in Atlanta. Ga.

        Number is 720XXX
         
      • Mad Hungarian

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        Oh I realize that the sequence won't override the territorial plans for distribution as described by the mothership, the regulatory issues of getting them to our country (let's PRAY this goes faster than the X), and we mustn't forget the plan to deliver higher-equipped models first. But hey, at least it's something new to analyze and obsess over while we wait :D
        What time did you reserve Trev?
        I got 3703xx, as we're close and same opening time I'm curious to see how it plays out. We back-of-the-napkin calculated that Montreal was processing something like around 100 people an hour, maybe more.
         
      • Stephane Lamarche

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        That number totally make sense, but I still don't think it helps you much like TrevP said. All the employees, previous owners on the west coast will most likely get deliveries before anyone on the east coast regardless of your number in line. Australia for example will have the smallest numbers (in theory) and people in the US will most likely get delivery before them. But it's still cool to know how far in the queue you were on reservation day. My ID is 371XXX. Made the reservation at 10:15am EDT in Atlanta.

        I also think the reservation ID started at a higher number than 300,000. I think it was probably closer to 350,000. It would be cool to know what number the first guy who made reservation in Australia got. That should be a very close indication of the starting point.

        Cheers
         
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        • MelindaV

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          #9 MelindaV, Jun 7, 2016
          Last edited: Jun 7, 2016
          Last night someone on the tmc thead compiled all responders numbers and it became quite obvious it is the sequence of your reservation by time, with pre launch staff numbers in the low 350,xxx (352,xxx from March 17) and 3/31 reservations around 36x,xxx and late April reservations in the area of 70x,xxx. There were a few that didn't align based on the time and number they said and assume those people listed incorrect info for one reason or another (have been claiming to be first in line at a store, when really stopped in at lunchtime maybe?)
          So you can subtract 352,000 from your number to get the location you were in line, before the cancelations and minus any model S and X orders from March and April. But it still is just a number, unless you know the number of the others in your region, how many are staff, current owners, level of upgrades, etc.
           
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          • Mad Hungarian

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            Agreed.
            And this is why I said...

            "Oh I realize that the sequence won't override the territorial plans for distribution as described by the mothership, the regulatory issues of getting them to our country (let's PRAY this goes faster than the X), and we mustn't forget the plan to deliver higher-equipped models first. But hey, at least it's something new to analyze and obsess over while we wait"
             
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            • JWardell

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              Reading through the TMC thread, it does appear as a sequential number as far as when the order was placed, but of course is only significant in your immediate location. I have 510xxx placed on 4/1 at 8am EST
               
            • james connolly

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              Reserved online on 2nd April in Ireland, number is 602XXX.

              Regards
              James
               
            • MelindaV

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              Subtracting 352,000 from my number kind of gives where I thought I might be in sequence interestingly enough. I figured after Tesla and SpaceX early access I'd be in the sub 20,000 sequence range given the East coast line holders and how many stores are out here compared to the West coast.
               
            • TE3LA

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              I reserved my first Model 3 on 3/31 at about 12pm, in Kansas City and my "common_reservation" number is 383,428.

              I reserved my second Model 3 on 05/11 online, and my common reservation number for that one is 744,740.

              This confirms for me what has already been stated, that this number corresponds the sequential order of reservations. Using Melinda's starting # of 352,000, this gets me to No.31,428 and No.392,740 respectively.

              I realize that due to the various preferential delivery categories these numbers have no direct correlation to order of delivery, but its still really nice to have a better idea of where I stand in line.
               
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              • TrevP

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                OK so I just got confirmation from @Ryanwins that his number is exactly 1 digit higher than mine and he was right behind me in line. So I call the sequence numbers as legit but still meaningless at the end of the day ;)
                 
              • garsh

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                From the comments section on the electrek.co article:

                My father placed an order for a Model S on 3/6/16 and the reservation ID for that vehicle is 342XXX.
                 
              • Daliman

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                OMG the one morning I don't have time to glance at this and this comes out. My number is 452XXX. I reserved in the first minute of online orders before the reveal. This seems to legitimately track the order in which reservations were made, of course given the announced delivery patterns it won't track the order of delivery except in a very broad sense. Still great to know that I was around 100,000 in placing my order, I had been guessing between 10-15,000 higher given the number Elon gave in the reveal.
                 
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                I'm at 462xxx. Ordered just as they showed the car at reveal and soon afterwards Elon came back on stage to say they received 115k orders so it matches.
                 
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                Same as TravP I'm in the first 20K and that's world wide, so at least I know I'm not too far in the list once they start deliveries on the East coast (Atlanta area). I understand there will probably be thousands of people that may get priority over me, but still and fun fact.
                 

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