Hi, everybody. I have created these two tables mostly based on EPA highway dyno test scores.
Range in miles:
Range in km:
Why use EPA highway dyno test scores?
The reason I'm using EPA highway dyno test scores instead of EPA rated range is that EPA rated range is manipulated in two ways: 1. Different multipliers, 2. Voluntary reductions. The manipulation happens after the dyno test is done and before they release the official EPA rated range. More information about these manipulation methods can be found
here. Therefore EPA rated range numbers are not comparable but EPA highway dyno test scores are.
Range at 65 mph
To convert EPA highway dyno test scores to range at 65 mph, I have used the range test numbers by Consumer Reports. Here is an example:
The Model S 75D scored 358.49 miles in EPA highway dyno tests (source: page 19
here)
It also scored 235 miles at 65 mph in Consumer Reports' range test (source:
video and
article)
The Model 3 LR (aka Model 3 75) scored 454.64 miles in EPA highway dyno tests (source: page 7
here)
Consumer Reports has not tested the Model 3 LR yet. We only have the EPA dyno test scores for the Model 3. Therefore I calculated what the range would be if/when Consumer Reports tests the Model 3 LR. The calculation is this: 454.64 * 235/358.49= 298 miles. That's the range at 65 mph.
Other than the Model S 75D, Consumer Reports also tested the range of the Model X 90D. You can read more about it
here.
Range at 70, 75, 80 mph
After I had the numbers at 65, to calculate the numbers at 70, 75 and 80 mph, I used the first graph Tesla published
here.
Supercharge percentages and 30-min Supercharge rates
I've used
this video for the S/X supercharge percentages. For the Model 3 LR, I've used this calculation 170/310= 54.8% in 30 minutes based on the 170 miles in 30 minutes number Tesla published
here.
Different wheel options:
There are 3 wheel configurations for the Model 3:
- 18" wheels without aero covers
- 18" wheels with aero covers
- 19" wheels
I think the test was done with #1 because of two reasons:
1. On page 4
here you can see a photo of the car during the test.
2. On page 16
here, it shows these two numbers: 9.95 HP for Model 3 with 18" and 11.13 HP for the Model 3 with 19". The ratio is 9.95/11.13= 89.4%. Now let's look at the Model S RWD numbers. On page 5
here, it shows these numbers: 11.45 HP for the Model S with 19" wheels and 12.78 HP for the Model S with 21" wheels. The ratio is 11.45/12.78= 89.6%. The difference is almost identical and the Model S in this test doesn't have aero covers. Therefore the almost identical difference suggests that neither the Model 3 nor the Model S had aero covers.
To calculate #3, I have used the A, B, C coefficients on the same page (on page 16)
here. It shows these numbers:
Model 3 18"
A= 38.51
B= ‐0.0811
C= 0.01610
Road load @50 mph= 9.95 HP
Model 3 19"
A= 42.30
B= ‐0.0212
C= 0.01691
Road load @50 mph= 11.13 HP
The HP numbers at 50 mph are useful but I needed the numbers at 65, 70, 75, 80 mph. On Reddit, some people said the gains with the smaller wheels would diminish at higher speeds. This is correct but the change is very small. The efficiency difference between 18" - aero vs 19" at different speeds is as follows:
- 65 mph 10.97%
- 70 mph 10.70%
- 75 mph 10.44%
- 80 mph 10.19%
To calculate these, I used the A, B, C numbers you see above which allow calculating the road load at any speed. We happen to have the road load at 50 mph. Therefore it is possible to double check whether the calculation is correct. Here is the calculation (50^2 means 50 * 50):
(42.30 * 50 + ‐0.0212 * 50^2 + 0.01691 * 50^3 )/375= 11.135 HP
In this formula, you can change 50 mph to 65 mph, then do the same calculation with the other A, B, C numbers for 18" wheels and then compare the results and you get 10.44% difference at 75 mph.
For #2, I used an estimated 6% improvement because there is no definitive data yet. In 2012 Tesla released aero covers for the Model S and people were reporting 5 to 10% improvement. I figured 6% would be a safe bet.
Degradation:
I added the purple columns to display the range after 5% degradation because 5% looks reasonable based on survey data. If you look at the degradation chart
here for miles and
here for km, you can see that the range drops to 95% at 45,000 miles or 72,500 km. For the Model 3, the drop to 95% will actually happen at a 25% higher mileage than the Model S because the Model 3 is more efficient and requires fewer charge cycles to achieve the same mileage.
Shortcomings:
The biggest problem I think is the Model S 85 data. The EPA test was done in February 2012 and it was never repeated again. However, Tesla improved the Model S 85 in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Therefore the numbers you see are for the 2012 Model S 85. It shows 219.7 miles range at 65 mph but I think the range was ~15 miles more in later years.