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Tesla testing driverless semi-truck, despite Nissan Leaf costing $5000 less than Model 3

Discussion in 'Tesla Discussions' started by Mark Benson, Aug 10, 2017.

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  1. Mark Benson

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    $TSLA Tesla is testing a self-driving semi-truck in California, Nevada, despite Nissan joining the low-pricing EV category with its 2018 Leaf model costing $5,000 less than $TSLA's Model 3. alphastreet.com/post/08c77dd
     
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    • gmxeon

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      I am not sure how those two things are related?

      Are you suggesting they stop any future product development by reducing the price to not gain the R&D margin? Perhaps the word "despite" was misplaced in your post...

      The 2018 Nissan LEAF is cheaper because its battery is smaller, it has a good 60~80 miles less range than the stock Model 3. Price per mile of range is still superior in the Model 3. Not to mention the technology the Model 3 has in it, which is arguably its most valuable assets...
       
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      • Sitter_k

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        Tesla testing semis despite Yankees winning streak.
         
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        • Fun_for_the_grandkids

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          Really liked your first post $TSLA Tesla Earnings Infographics; Tesla Reported Wider Loss in 2Q17 on 3 Aug - that evening TSLA was up over 10%.
          This time a great non-sequitur - not sure where you are coming from. Does it presage a similar TSLA result tonight. Watch the ticker!
           
        • Cloxxki

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          Earnings are posted and analized by accoutants who know sound business. Stock prices are all about gambling with a false notion of business sense. With fans (and those who got a taste of the dotcom bubble) buying TSLA as some sort of a green earth subsidy, there is not real ceiling. At $1000 they'll be buying tomorrow also, on no news at all.

          So at 10-15kWh less (who knows?), $5K less seems comporable. When you have $45 to spend, Model 3 will likely win all things considered. With $36 to spend (lowest you can spend on TM3), the new Leaf may end up more attractive.

          Does the $30K Leaf come in other colors than black?

          The wait is for the 3rd 200mi+ car under $70K (now that Model S is off the table). Bolt, Model 3, what else do we have? For urban driver, Leaf cannot be ignored obviously. But Model 3 deserves some competition. It was announced long ago enough!
           
        • Fun_for_the_grandkids

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          Agree, speculating is a dangerous game. The original post used the $TSLA symbol suggesting to me it was motivated by stock price considerations (why I looked to his previous post to understand what the author was on about). Looking at it otherwise it didn't make any sense - see posts above by @gmxeon and @Sitter_k . My post was trying to understand the original post by @Mark Benson

          Development of the Model 3 was finalised years ago. The die is cast and demand far exceeds supply. I will have to wait until 2019 before they even start to make RHD versions of the Model 3. New factories and the Model Y are planned to help meet unfulfilled demand. Model 3 is not competing against the Leaf or other EVs for that matter - it is in a different league as demand clearly shows. It is competing against the BMW series three and the like. I have no doubt Tesla will eventually build lower cost EVs to compete with the Toyota Carolla but they will go for the high margin market first to generate the needed capital to expand production. Just a continuation of the strategy they enunciated nearly a decade ago.
          Building a semi is a totally different proposition. Manufacturing demands are quite different; the capital demands are much much smaller. Tesla has the design and technical expertise to enter this totally different market. It leverages their expertise in vehicle digitisation. It also leverages their battery production (other posts discuss this at length), and can do this without materially impacting the Model 3 production timeline. ... And importantly it advances Tesla's vision of transforming the transport sector.
           
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          • Cloxxki

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            I'm not so sure they'll move to making true affordable cars. They're a premium brand now. And not quite big enough (especially with their no-dealer business model) to deal with a multi-million Twingo or even Fiesta type of car.
            With a cheap car, making it nearly as safe as Model 3 becomes more than a fair challenge. How are you going to get the AP2.5HW in there, with the self-steering and - breaking? Such a safe car takes a lot of alu and high strength steel. Plus, Tesla seems to want to be on the top end of its class in terms of performance.
            Once their machine that makes the machine is fully established, sure, someone will want to make a gazillion econoboxes with it. But already financing growth is a big issue. Will Tesla gamble the house a few more times? They're too big to let uncle Elon bail them out now. Especially on days the stock doesn't push its records.
            If Tesla stays on top of tech (cleans house with AP), and gets better at "premium" stuff, there is a very large premium car market for them to grow in. They have a chance to make the Germans look silly, 5 and 10 years from now. If they are allowed to catch up, and make better cars in class, the growth curve may flatten out soon eneough. Nobody needs a Model Y if the Germans step up to the challenge. Unless Y can beat them on price while on tech/quality parity.
            That all said, S and X are not setting the world on fire in terms of sales growth. Despite antiiselling of superhot Model 3. And despite lack of ANY competitors on the BEV market in class. Perhaps they've grown as quick as the zero marketing policy allows? Or will cars just need longer range to unlock the rest of the market? Imagine how many Germans would want a Tesla with a tripled SUC network and vastly longer range... It's a matter of cramming more cells in there, making the most of 2170's.

            Did anyone see Bjorn's review of the Focus Electric? 33kWh, and just €2K less than Model 3. Half the range I suppose, half the acceleration. Half the cargo space? So awkward. Such an afterthought.
             
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            • Fun_for_the_grandkids

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              Interesting - Classic Bjorn - Don't you just want to go out and buy the new Focus! You said it, 'half the range, half the acceleration, half the cargo space' - should have added 'half the car' (Ford Focus with electric drive drain). Sadly should be 50% cheaper also but the price includes a 46% EV premium.

              Nice thing about the Model 3 is that it's equivalent to a BMW 3 series WITHOUT an EV premium - that's why Tesla can't make enough of them.
               
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              • Cloxxki

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                To be fair, Model 3 was sold largely on hype for being a half price Tesla. Which 1.5 years ago surely was a thing to want. Today, it's getting timef or the competition to show their hands. Ford opens the poop emoticon card, but a royal flush of it, or whaever the equivalent would be called.
                If you're going to put a light 100kW motor in a medium sized car, and hook it up to a small battery you stick in the cargo space of an existing chassis (zero development cost), how does that enjoy such a high EV premium? Are ICE's and gearboxes built at zero cost nowadays? Or did Tesla make the other carmakers hungry for mass market 30% margin cars?
                The new Leaf is going to decimate the Focus. It probably can't hang with the Hyundai Ionic, certainly not in terms of charging. Chevy Bolt isn't the sexiest, but the Ford barely has half the battery and much less space.
                Is the new eGolf any better? Bigger battery, less awkward, slightly lower price where I'm at. They at least have something better on the way.
                 
              • Fun_for_the_grandkids

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                I agree, adding an electric drive train to an ICE may have worked 5 years ago. The Leaf was then able to command a hefty EV premium. However, to remain competitive EV makers will have to develop their EVs from scratch AND produce them at a price equal to or better than an ICE equivalent (in terms of features etc.). Battery costs have fallen sufficiently to make that possible. But it will take at least two or three years for many of their offerings to come to market - and the traditional manufacturers have to worry about their existing output losing market share.

                The BMW i3 was built from scratch in a purpose built factory. It is a very nice car but pricey and made for a niche market.

                I final point - I do think you're seriously underestimating the Model 3 - a lot more than hype is needed to have a two year waiting list. It is a game-changer. You should read the Bloomberg article. We are at a tipping point. Nissan have said that in the UK EVSEs will outnumber gas stations by 2020 - that is only three years away.
                 
              • Cloxxki

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                It likely IS a game charger. But the high demand is largely built on hype. The people who do realize, reserve one or two of them. Many existing Tesla drivers reserved one or two. Or got a friend or neighbor to at least reserve one in case it's a must have or even a good flipper.

                Only slowly we're startingto realize Tesla means business with the 3 as autonomous taxi with specific features to that end. If they get FSD to work, very helpful to owners.
                 
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                • garsh

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                  I'm not sure why you put those two sentences together. The Leaf is built on a purpose-built EV chassis - it doesn't share the chassis with any other vehicle.
                   
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                  • Fun_for_the_grandkids

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                    You are quite right - the Leaf was a bad example.
                    In fact because the Leaf was purpose built, and screamed EV, it could command an EV premium more than any other EV at the time.
                     
                  • Sitter_k

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                    I Can already picture a Tesla semi
                    Pulling into a super charger and "icing" all 6 spots.
                     
                  • JWardell

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                    Yes, but it will probably have all 6 superchargers plugged into it at the same time :)
                     
                  • Fun_for_the_grandkids

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                    OR ... the trucking stop where the battery swap takes five minutes and its off again on its autonomous way.:cool:

                    AND ... we look on with envy from the nearby regular super charger.
                     
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