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Tesla's place in the automotive industry?

Discussion in 'Tech Talk' started by Dan Detweiler, Oct 22, 2016.

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  1. Dan Detweiler

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    I posted a similar thread over on the TMC page and would be interested for everyone's views over here. Here is a copy of my TMC post.

    Everyone has different wants, needs and expectations in what they are looking for in their transportation. This will always be the case and because of this, there will always be disagreements on everything. Here are my impressions and I would be interested in hearing yours.

    I have gone through a lot of stages during the digestion of the "Model 3 reveal part 2" or whatever you want to call it this week. My initial reaction was one of disappointment due to it not including the things I had begun to expect out of Part 2. Interior design, performance specs, steering wheel, HUD, etc. None of these things were discussed...bummer. Then I began to think. These expectations I had were my own interpretations of reality, not based on anything factual. I set myself up for this disappointment. Once I realized that fact, I started to think about what WAS said in the reveal.

    With the release of Autopilot 2.0, Tesla has announced that they are putting themselves in a place no other manufacturer has ever realistically even considered. They are throwing down a gauntlet to everyone else in the industry that there is no way anyone can match in at least the next 10 years in my opinion. They are opening up a level of utilitarian function we have never seen before in our cars, let alone the convenience and safety issues. When you really start to think about how this technology can be used it is mind boggling to me. How about the potential impact on the lives of our elderly, handicapped and otherwise incapable citizens that can gain back a level of independence that has never been possible for them up to this point. Intoxicated drivers become intoxicated passengers when the car safely takes them home after a long night of partying. People suffering from emergency medical problems are taken directly to the nearest hospital by their cars. The possibilities are endless.

    After much thought, there is now no way I would consider anything other than a Tesla for me and my family. I think they have literally made every other car on the road obsolete in many many ways. Performance, safety, convenience, functionality, looks...you name it. No matter how I look at it no other car company can begin to match it. Sure, I understand many people will disagree and that is one reason I am posting this...to hear other people's thoughts. For me however, Tesla just knocked it out of the park with this announcement. The only thing that would keep me from buying a Tesla as my next car would be if the price got completely out of hand, which for some it may have already, I don't know.

    Bottom line...I think the Model 3 with Autopilot 2.0 and full autonomy is an absolute game changer in the industry on par with Ford's development of the assembly line. Like the assemble line, if any other manufacturer can hope to compete, they are going to have to start adapting some of what Tesla is now making available in their cars. Lord, I sound like a Tesla commercial here! Not meaning to but the more I think about it the more excited I get.

    What are your thoughts?

    Dan
     
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  2. Rick59

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    Excellent post Dan. I totally agree with you. I have often posted on Tesla's lack of communications about Model 3. It would be so easy to drop a few nuggets from time to time. Nevertheless, the safety features of this car far surpass anything else available now or in the foreseeable future at this price range.
    I think the big issue will be the cost of options. If your ideal car goes from $35,000 to over $60,000, that changes the market. People who would have jumped in at under $40,000 may well look at alternatives or wait for something else coming down the road, or God forbid, by an ICE.
     
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  3. TrevP

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    @Dan Detweiler I'm with you about not wanting anything else than a Tesla. I had made that decision a long time ago and was considering a used Model S recently if anything came from my difficulties with my Lincoln and trying to release me from that car. Not gonna happen.

    In any case, after seeing what AP 2 is capable of I'm solidly waiting for Model 3, the wait will be 100% worth it.

    As for expectations, one thing I've learned from Elon, is to try and temper yourself from reading too much into his tweets. They tend to be rather vague. This is further accentuated when he's asked about things in interviews and he will be demure answering directly and will make coy references in his non-answer which lead to an incredible amount of wild speculation. Tesla is also very very secretive and that doesn't help either.

    I remember last year during the Model X prototypes spotting feeding frenzy over at TMC that somehow they all got it into their heads that the Model X was sporting fake body panels and that the final product wouldn't look anything like what they had showed. I tried repeatedly to try and reason with folks over there that Tesla didn't have the resources to be doing such silly things just to throw us off but the conspiracies kept going on and on.

    You can read my post if you care:

    https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-mule-sightings.44793/page-63#post-1059839

    In the end, I was right but it fell on deaf ears.

    That was the last straw for me with TMC which is why I started this board for the Model 3. I didn't want this incredibly important car to fall into the quagmire of insufferable speculation that Model X was going through and also why I did my own YouTube Channel and eventually the show with @Kennethbokor : to try and keep people grounded in reality.

    Look, I know it's easy to project our wants and desires into something we covet that is cloaked in secrecy. The but end result is that it sets everyone up for disappointment because we have this imaginary built-up expectation and we feel let down when it doesn't meet our own personal armchair "I'd engineer it this way if I was on the team". We have to trust that Elon and his team at Tesla will do the right thing.

    It's also very important to remember that Model 3 *has* to be on time, Elon himself even recognizes this, which is why he's said on several occasions that feature that can't make the cut in time will be put off into a future feature instead of being held back. This is one of the reasons the Model X was delayed and has had so many problems.

    The absence of news about Model 3 from Tesla at this time is not because of some arbitrary delay or want of not telling the world about this amazing car. It's because they have their plate full with getting it ready for production and want to keep things quiet until they're ready to tell the world. This is the same playbook that Apple operates under. It's both a competitive thing and also a marketing technique.

    I want news just like everyone else but in the meantime I don't spend time buying into conspiracy theories and tons of speculation as to what really secret stuff they or may not be working on. I rely on facts and follow the crumbs they leave behind with their hints and personnel hiring and throw in a hefty dose of Jack Handy's "Lowered Expectations". This HUD thing is the latest secret that seems to be going around. I think they will do something like that but it might not make the cut for the first iteration of the car. It might be put off until it's ready. That kind of thing could lead to delays which is not something anyone wants, even Tesla.

    Let's try and keep the discussions here healthy, free of conspiracies and above all else, FUN!!

    Thanks for reading.
    Trevor
     
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  4. Michael Russo

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    Dan, again, thank you for challenging us conservative folks who may not be fully ready for some of the most revolutionary aspects of Tesla's most recent news on AP 2.0 & self-driving (mainly the opportunity to share my car and maybe even more letting my hand off the steering wheel !! LOL!!)

    Couple of things:
    - there is no question that T≡SLA is a true game changer which forces traditional carmakers to catch-up and that won't be so easy or fast to do. Also, from first indications, few will have as appealing a design as the T≡SLA products nor as exciting & innovative propositions
    - it is key to their financial viability that the Model ≡ launch be timely & with minimum child sicknesses
    - as I said earlier, though I am trying to open up to the revolutionary idea that AP & self-driving (and believe me, Dan, you help!), I remain concerned about budget as well as the effective management of priorities this implies
    - in this respect, I am intrigued by the review of the T≡SLA 8.0 Navigation
    (Thoughts on Tesla’s 8.0 Navigation System
    http://www.teslarati.com/teslas-8-0-navigation-system/)
    before AP, I would like to ensure that my Model ≡ has a state of the art navigation and media center, as I would hate 'to be driven' yet regret my BMW system which, in my view is state of the art on navigation functionality & look! T≡SLA as a model of innovation cannot appear to be trailing on such a feature...
    - I remain confident Elon & his team are doing everything they can to achieve this; I also remain super excited about the care I reserved!!
    - on this last point, don't feel bad about the disappointment you felt on Wednesday... Believe we ALL felt it, and to some extent I am skeptical about the merits of considering this announcement as a 'Model ≡ second reveal' though the car was mentioned and will be concerned by the technology... Yet we are all keen to know more, discover the 'spaceship' interior - with the jaw dropping HUD - so more than frequent teasers on this will be most appreciated !!

    Thank you for the opportunity to comment! I love this M3OC family!!! Keeps us on our toes!!

    Have a nice weekend, y'all!
    Mike
     
  5. Dan Detweiler

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    Something else to keep in mind that gives Tesla a HUGE leg up on everyone else. When it comes to legislative regulation I assume it will be similar to the aviation industry. When it comes to aviation certification, everything is hardware, software and application specific. You can't just plunk a battery that is certified in a Cessna into a Piper. That same battery has to be certified in each application. So, my assumption is that they won't just say at some point "ok, full autonomy is now authorized and any manufacturer can do what ever they want". My guess is that each manufacturer will have to demonstrate (probably billions of miles of data) the viability of their system, even if it uses the same hardware as a certified system.

    This would put Tesla years and years ahead of all the other systems out there due to its collective data network that will now include every single car they sell, whether it has autopilot enabled or not. Something to keep in mind.

    Dan
     
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  6. Michael Russo

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    Dan, you are right. I hope they are treated objectively by the EU legislators who may be tempted to follow the infamous 'N.I.H.' syndrom... cf. Germany's recent reaction to T≡SLA's AP...
     
  7. Derek Tweedy

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    #7 Derek Tweedy, Oct 22, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2016
    Hailing Frequencies Open...

    Electric vehicles are the current battle, but the war will be won or lost on fully autonomous transportation.

    I truly believe (given Tesla's history of producing better vehicles than their concepts) we'll all be extremely happy with the final production reveal. We'll also be part of a watershed, pioneering group that history will look back on.

    Here's my question to other members... What are your thoughts on having other people in your car when you're at work etc.? I think the latest announcement shocked many at just how soon this will occur. I've kept me eyes and ears open but I can't find opinions on how owners feel about this idea.

    As a Canadian committed to ordering a fully loaded 3, I'm not sure I'd want to share it with anyone. I understand the business case, and I realize it's certainly the future on many levels, but still... something about having strangers in my vehicle rubs me the wrong way.

    Does anyone else have similar feelings? I do think this will happen, but my gut tells me individual owners will represent a small percentage of the adopters.

    Maybe best for an upcoming poll question?
     
  8. Dan Detweiler

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    The great news is that you can chose to participate or not. I agree with you. I'm not sure I would want a bunch of strangers in my car all day while I'm at work either. That being said it would be a pretty simple matter to equip the cars with cameras to identify/record bad behavior. I have to admit, if it got to the point where it completely offset my loan payment each month it would be hard not to partake.

    Dan
     
  9. Derek Tweedy

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    Agreed Dan.

    The Opt-in is key. For individuals (outside the US) who will undoubtedly see higher costs I think this will be a very polarizing issue. Maybe Trevor will read the tea leaves on this issue and use a Poll in the near future. I'm sure the data would be valuable for Tesla. Nobody seems to be talking about it yet.
     
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  10. Rick59

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    No sharing for me beyond immediate family. Not even sure I want self-driving, especially at that cost.
     
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  11. MelindaV

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    @Dan Detweiler I just finished reading thru the thread on TMC.
    On the Part II thing - I thing a lot of people put themselves in the same mindset you had. A couple word statement from EM had people jumping to their own conclusions on how to interpret it, then seeing others state the announcement was going to be the full reveal.... But we all also expect the reveal (if you call it part II, III or IVX...) would be an invite event, so am sure in the back of everyones minds it was not a surprise the 19th was just a single 'product' as the announcement was originally said to be, even if it related to Model ☰ :)

    If I could afford whatever I want, I would have been driving a Tesla already. @AEDennis & his lovely wife's garage with a Roadster and Model S - and large enough to park both - is sweetly coveted (will that Model ☰ fit in the garage too Dennis?). But my income to this point has instead permitted a small garage with a small ford and smaller pontiac. Price-wise, there is no feasible way I could have purchased a Tesla to this point. Since first hearing of what has become the Model ☰, I was sold. But even with it starting at $35k and not planning on a ton of options (they are still shifting weekly) it will be the most expensive purchase I've made in one day outside of my house. Likely equalling the price of both the small ford and smaller pontiac combined. So far, I'm ok with that, but am sure 12 months from now will be freaking out over that. but what else are you going to do if not spend the $ you make, right?

    Where I live, an EV seems like a no brainer. We have some of the highest fuel prices and fuel taxes, with the current car taking premium fuel doesn't help either. And because of a nearby hydroelectric dam, some of the lowest electrical rates. Going from my current car's fuel costs to a Tesla (based on the S calcs) I will be saving $1200-$1600 in fuel vs electric a year! Or 2-3 car payments a year! That could cover the cost of the base car price in 22 years! That helps my frugal mind. lol

    On AP/L5, when Tesla first activated AP I was skeptical. Not because I felt it was less than it was represented as being, because technically, I think AP1.0 was/is hands down the best semi-autonomous capability on current cars, but how useful it would be for my own driving. Coming up to the AP2.0 (software) update I had been thinking it would really be handy in all the hour+ stop and go commutes. Then AP2.0 (software) pretty much solidified it for me. EAP, while I like the old price tag much better than $5k, will definitely be one of the options I add. Assuming the price stays at $5k/+$3k, I will stick with EAP and not the full autonomous option out of the gate. The unknown of when/if regulators make full L5 available is too much of a gamble for me to spend the extra $3k. I have no doubt in Tesla's software/hardware pulling it off flawlessly, but being able to make it available to us before I'm ready to think of a trade up to a new model is too much.

    On older people or mobility challenged... If money were no object, I would get my dad a Tesla! He is old school, has a diesel F250 truck and a 40th anniversary convertible mustang (that was an impulse buy after my mom died - it was that or a corvette - I think she would have said no to either, but adamantly to the vette) and has restored/rebuilt a couple dozen 1900-1930 cars from the ground up. When I told him I reserved a Tesla, and had to explain the 'new' ones were not $80k, I expected scoffing and 'what the hell would you do that for?' but instead got interested questions (following the at the time common AP killing people misinformation). I think having EAP and L5 would be awesome for people like him that are starting to have physical limits for one reason or another.

    my longwinded way of saying YAY! Tesla :D
     
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  12. Michael Russo

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    Hi Derek, as I said, I will be retired so unlikely to share...
     
  13. Gary Moore

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    What better way to commence a discussion of the no-longer-science-fiction future than with a blast from the past from the late Orson Welles, in that classic Paul Mason commercial, "We shall sell no wine before its time."

    In line with what Frederick Brooks has described in his The Mythical Man-Month, it takes about nine months to make and deliver a baby, no matter how many folks you assign to the team, even if they all work quite feverishly and without rest around the clock toward the goal. Asking human resources to hire faster is just not going to cut it.

    Original novelty always means it has never been done before.

    A marketplace is also composed of more than individual requirements and anticipations. There is another dimension involved: the common good.

    By putting AP2 hardware into all new Tesla vehicles, Tesla gets to run the software in shadow mode and collect the experiences of all drivers, and thereby compare what moves the autonomous system might have undertaken against the cohort of all human driver performances in the fleet of new Tesla vehicles.

    All of us are stronger than the sum of each of us as individuals. By sharing, we benefit from common experience.

    "No man is an island."

    As the noted egomaniac, Sir Isaac Newton famously wrote regarding success to his rival in 1676, "If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants."

    (He wasn't the first person to say that. He had help.)

    We can't go faster than the speed of light, and I won't expect Elon et al to do it either.

    When specific schedules are announced, I shall personally risk depending upon them and expect them to be met. If he's two days late in shipping the last old-fashioned Tesla, I probably can live with that. I've seen "final process" myself, up close and personal.

    If I don't know where the wormhole is, I cannot sincerely promise anyone to get there by taking the shortcut.

    Not knowing is part of the human condition.

    So I'll wait for Model 3 Reveal, Part N, since exploring the final frontier often requires persistence.

    The common good is not just the job of everyone else.

    "Ask me no questions, and I'll tell you no lies."



     
  14. AEDennis

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    On a trip visiting family in the other WA State (Western Australia), so not posting as much as usual...

    We have 2 Model 3 on order and may have the flexibility to have "my" Model 3 go out and drive around and "earn it's keep" but won't be speaking for the better half's Model 3.

    Part of the reason is our garage is full...



    This is what we cleared up to fit both cars in when we first got the cars and it has not changed much.

    [​IMG]IMG_5393 by Dennis Pascual, on Flickr

    Additionally we only have one NEMA 14-50 to plug in on the parking spot outside...

    (Here we are fitting 2 other cars, and charging our old ActiveE)

    [​IMG]IMG_5394 by Dennis Pascual, on Flickr

    So, it would be good to have a fully autonomous Model 3 driving around, earning its keep, driving down to Fountain Valley to charge itself at the supercharger and continue to work until I need it.

    Or I completely go the other direction and drop down to one reservation and my better half drives the Roadster less. ;) (not sure whether my winking emoticon from my iPad will show)
     
  15. Red Sage

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    If I remember correctly, below is my reply from TMC, replicated for this site.

    Essentially, that I agree with you. The revelation you experienced upon actually thinking about it, is just the sort of thing that I expected. The difference is that far too many will be too busy complaining about what was not said, presented, or answered, and will not take the time to reflect upon what was actually said. Denial is their first, last, and only impulse.

    That process is similar to two years ago, when so many news organizations sought to downplay the introduction of the Model S P85D at the Tesla 'D' Event. They basically claimed that Tesla had wasted everyone's time by unveiling what 'everyone else' already had -- an all wheel-drive car with traffic aware cruise control -- and thereby 'nothing special' at all. They wanted to show that Elon Musk was naught but a hype leader, a ringmaster, a showman, and that there was no substance to what was presented at all. That is certainly one way to look at it, and I understand how some might come to that conclusion. But it is the wrong one nonetheless.

    The same is true for those who want to downplay this latest announcement from Tesla. Again, no one seems to quite ready to accept the importance or consider the relative magnitude of what is happening here. Tesla motors has gone from being the first mass market vehicle manufacturer to offer 100% fully electric, to be the first to offer a 100% self driving capable fleet of new vehicles.

    There are still those that want to refer to the 'D' as a 'one trick pony', only noting its acceleration. While they simultaneously ignore the improvement in range and efficiency or in safety and handling it affords. That same group of people will not let go there criticism that Tesla is somehow 'beta testing the world' and that they are moving 'too fast, too soon' or whatever. And the exact same people will never admit to talking out of both sides of their mouth when they simultaneously claim that Tesla is 'taking too long' and 'missing deadlines'. Tesla's methodology for everything under the sun will always be criticised, and mostly unfairly. Such is life and stuff.
     
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