Time to start buying TSLA? Or get out before the crash?

garsh

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#1
TSLA has taken a huge hit the past two days. I'm guessing this is due mainly to the recent Model X crash, fire, and death, along with secondary effects of Uber's recent self-driving-related death, and possibly also Jaguar's introduction of the I-Pace.

I was already expecting TSLA to take a hit due to their inability to meet the latest Model 3 production goals at the end of Q1. So I have been tentatively planning for the stock to drop in the beginning of April, and I was going to jump in. But it appears that the shorts saw an opportunity with all of this current negative news, and are driving the stock ever lower, breaking down past the ~$300 support level. As of this post, it's down to 266.

I'm trying to decide if the shorts are going to drive the price down even lower before cashing in and cutting their losses (which will drive the price back up). I think I'm going to wait another few days before pulling the trigger and buying more shares, but it sure is tempting at the current price.
 
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MelindaV

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#2
well, I thought it was time to buy 2 days ago when I added another share around 299 (because I am that kind of stock buyer...). First thought this morning was adding another couple shares if it drops down to $260.

I originally began buying shares of TSLA shortly after putting in my reservation. Have sold some when it was in the high $300s and bought back some when in low $300s (mostly have had less than 20 shares for perspective). It has always been with the thought that this would essentially be part of my downpayment savings and never planned to make a killing on it... but over the last two years, have somewhat changed my mindset and not sure I really want to cash them all out when my car is ready for delivery. At the least will keep a few shares around. But certainly there is no way I would be selling now. The combined average of the shares I currently have is right around $300 per, and would not sell unless well over that (Ideally, WELL OVER ;))
 

rareohs

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#3
I bought at 330, tempted to buy more but also concerned about the possibility that maybe it slides a lot more.... uggh
 

Brokedoc

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#4
I had warned in another thread a few weeks ago about buying TSLA as I saw an impending correction in the price. I see warning signs that the TSLA correction is not over yet. Their recent corporate bond offerings have dropped to 89 cents on the dollar as of this morning. This may become a vicious down cycle if Elon can't post real ramp progress or if he should need any additional short term funding for production expansion.

My feeling is that we need to keep a close eye on the production numbers that Tesla will post next week and as "insiders" we can keep an eye on VIN reports and Bloomberg production tracker (although I think that might miss some Canadian Model 3 numbers due to self reporting bias).

I suspect May-June will be a better time to load up again.
 

Brokedoc

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#5
I don't want to toot my own horn but it's very rare when I'm right so I figure I have to do it.

My previous post was on 2/22 when TSLA stock closed 346.17 - almost at the peak and almost $100 more than where we are now. https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/buying-stock.6050/#post-76128

If I could predict the future, I would be a multi-gazillionaire and I would buy everyone on this forum a Model X. Unfortunately, I'm not but I still think it's not quite the right setting to get back into TSLA.

Remember. A broken clock shows the right time twice every day. :confused:
 

garsh

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#6
I suspect May-June will be a better time to load up again.
I fully expect Tesla to announce refreshed S & X before June, so I wouldn't want to wait that long. I'm thinking April-May myself.
 

Brokedoc

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#7
I fully expect Tesla to announce refreshed S & X before June, so I wouldn't want to wait that long. I'm thinking April-May myself.
I had also thought that a S/X refesh would come soon but if you look at the current configurator, the interior images still show the old design and a June delivery date.

You would expect the configurator to reflect the car that the buyer is purchasing and therefore I don't expect a refresh until July at the earliest.
 

Lovesword

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#8
I had also thought that a S/X refesh would come soon but if you look at the current configurator, the interior images still show the old design and a June delivery date.

You would expect the configurator to reflect the car that the buyer is purchasing and therefore I don't expect a refresh until July at the earliest.
The alcantara on my Model 3 disagrees with you. :p
 

Petra

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#9
I fully expect Tesla to announce refreshed S & X before June, so I wouldn't want to wait that long. I'm thinking April-May myself.
Maybe I'm being too pessimistic, but I wonder if Tesla even has the organizational bandwidth/resources to overhaul the S and/or X right now... I mean, they're still struggling to get the Model 3 out the door in quantity (Elon noted that even the Model 3 software work was/is such a drain that it prevented/delayed meaningful development for the S and X), they've got the Y, Roadster, and Semi programs going, Gigafactory 1 & 2, retail expansion, service expansion, still shaking down things after the Solar City merger, etc. Tesla has a lot of irons in the fire right now.

Why divert resources for a refresh when demand is still high?

On the other hand, from what Elon has stated in calls, they're likely going to need to redesign the S & X to improve manufacturing efficiency, both for a margin bump but also so that they can continue to meet future demand without too much expansion.
 

Brokedoc

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#10
The alcantara on my Model 3 disagrees with you. :p
I had thought about that before...

It's really hard to tell the materials based on the configurator pics but are we sure the configurator didn't change before the alcantara was delivered? Nobody was really looking out for the change in materials so it could have changed and nobody noticed.

A major interior refresh is very easy to spot on pictures and that would be a huge deal if someone got the new design but preferred the old design. For me, I much prefer the older power monopost 2nd row as compared to the current manual fold flat 2nd row in the new Model X.
 

garsh

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#12
I had also thought that a S/X refesh would come soon but if you look at the current configurator, the interior images still show the old design and a June delivery date.

You would expect the configurator to reflect the car that the buyer is purchasing and therefore I don't expect a refresh until July at the earliest.
I don't expect the configurator to be updated until May/June.
  1. They're likely not completely sure what parts of the retooling they'll have ready in time for June delivery. They don't want another alcantaragate on their hands if they can avoid it.
  2. "Osborne effect". Sales for current inventory and CPO S/X would dry up for 2-3 months if they announce it now.
  3. For anybody who already placed an order for June delivery, they can simply just offer to "upgrade" their order to the refreshed version for free. For the handful of freaks who decline the offer, they can afford to hand-build a few S with old spare parts.
Maybe I'm being too pessimistic, but I wonder if Tesla even has the organizational bandwidth/resources to overhaul the S and/or X right now.
That's certainly a valid concern. But weigh that concern against the following thought:

Tesla is still anti-selling the 3. They can afford to for as long as demand outstrips supply. But when they reach 5000 cars/week, they'll soon have to stop this practice. The problem is that - in many ways - the 3 is a better vehicle than the S. They need to update the S and X to remove at least the glaring deficiencies, such as the old cpu (done), the lack of storage, cupholders, and phone charging, the phone-as-a -key capability (needed for future autonomous driving), and maybe even add in the 3's climate control "vents".
 

SoFlaModel3

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#13
Model Y announcement coming soon to save the day....?
 

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#14
At the risk of saying, "blah, blah, blah normal stock advice about market timing, blah, blah,blah," I would say:
  1. Don't buy any TSLA you can't afford to lose
  2. Yes, they are having a sale on it right now
  3. I don't think anything has structurally happened to limit Tesla's future (this is key; decide for yourself on this)
  4. As my wife (Stanford MBA) said today: "People love the products. That's huge."
  5. When everyone is very negative (not making 2500/wk by end of March, Model X wreck), it's a good time to buy
  6. It might go down more (don't forget, the stock will also follow the general demand for tech stocks, so a NASDAQ drop is a TSLA drop)
  7. Don't buy TSLA if you're going to feel the need to track it every day, and get anxious if it drops.

This is a good time to place a long-term bet on Tesla, if you think Tesla has a bright future. But don't buy stress; if you can't be long term and casual about it, stay back. Never purchase worry, you can always get it for free.
 

garsh

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#15
Don't buy any TSLA you can't afford to lose.
Yep. This is not a retirement investment. This is a lottery ticket with better odds (<meme>the lowest bar in the world</meme>) and less upside.
 

John

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Yep. This is not a retirement investment. This is a lottery ticket with better odds (<meme>the lowest bar in the world</meme>) and less upside.
Yep. Helpful to keep in mind that the odds change dramatically depending on your timeline. But assuming you're bullish on Tesla's market positions and ability to execute (eventually):

The expected value in six months is—and I'm making this up—+/- 50%. You could lose half your money, even if Tesla eventually does well.
The expected value in three years is +100%.

Bright future. Bumpy road.
 

svusa11

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#17
I view today's meltdown is basically part of rotation out of tech sector. There isn't any new news that Market didn't know in advance. Everyone knows Model 3 production is about 6 month-1 year behind, everyone knows Tesla needs to raise more Money to fund their expansion plans.

I added TSLA to existing position at $300, again today at $253, I'll add more @ $235 and @200. As long as you have appetite to hold stock for 5-10 years, it is a strong brand name.

Worst case scenario, Apple has tons of cash and no futuristic product so wouldn't be that hard for Apple to shell out some cash for Tesla.

PS: Never put all your eggs in one basket. Be neither on the bull side or nor on the bear side but be on the winning side.
 
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Brokedoc

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#18
I view today's meltdown is basically part of rotation out of tech sector. There isn't any new news that Market didn't know in advance. Everyone knows Model 3 production is about 6 month-1 year behind, everyone knows Tesla needs to raise more Money to fund their expansion plans.

I added TSLA to existing position at $300, again today at $253, I'll add more @ $235 and @200. As long as you have appetite to hold stock for 5-10 years, it is a strong brand name.

Worst case scenario, Apple has tons of cash and no futuristic product so wouldn't be that hard for Apple to shell out some cash for Tesla.

PS: Never put all your eggs in one basket. Be neither on the bull side or nor on the bear side but be on the winning side.
Looks like you're putting in buy limits at Fibonacci levels. Smart. Nobody can explain why technical trading works but it does.

FYI - another particularly ominous article from CNN about how Tesla can easily get into a cash crunch. http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/28/news/companies/tesla-model-3-cash-crunch/index.html

Hopefully they're wrong but maybe the whole alcantara change was due to this supplier payment issue. I know some crazy terms that can be demanded by some companies. The suppliers know its like musical chairs. The payment terms get longer and longer until the company declares bankruptcy like Toys R Us and then the suppliers still owed money get hosed.
 
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#20
Moody's dropped Tesla's credit rating. Many large institutions have rules against holding stock with this new rating. Hence the large number of sales and dropping stock price. Crashes have some effect, but stocks don't drop so much unless there's lots of sellers.

I don't think we know if all of the large institutions have sold all of their Tesla yet - if so, the stock is likely to stabilize. If they continue dumping the stock, it's going down even more.