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What could Model Y cost?

Discussion in 'Speculation' started by ModFather, Jun 4, 2017.

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  1. ModFather

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    #1 ModFather, Jun 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2017
    I think people are going to be very disappointed by the "affordability" part of model Y. It appears most are expecting a model Y (with gull wing doors) to be similar in price to the model 3. I predict that the model Y will start around US$50k+ for a base model.
     
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    • SoFlaModel3

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      #2 SoFlaModel3, Jun 4, 2017
      Last edited: Jun 4, 2017
      I don't see why the Model Y would be that expensive and encroach on the Model X. I would bet it starts in the low 40s.
       
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      • ModFather

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        Okay, I see the MX starts at $82,500. Your point is well taken. I'll revise my estimate to $50K.
         
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        • SoFlaModel3

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          See I still disagree.

          Model 3 is essentially half the price of Model S.

          If Model Y is half the price of Model X, then I'm right on with low 40s ;)
           
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          • Michael Russo

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            I was going to write $50k then I saw @el crucero 's response. To be clear, this is assuming falcon wings doors (fwd) and, remember, Elon announced it would be on a different platform than Model ≡... If fwd would be dropped, you might hope for something in the mid-40's...
             
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            • MelindaV

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              I think the Model Y has as much chance of having FWDs as the Model 3 turning up at the July final unveil with them.
               
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              • ModFather

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                Mel I think you could very well be right but I think EM himself tweeted somewhere that they would be included on the Y. I know, one has to be careful about EM's tweets. We will see how accurate his optimistic promises are in tweets in a month when the 3 debuts! o_O
                 
              • MelindaV

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                true, but think that was also prior to the Model X launch and he may not have fully grasped what that tweet could cost him in unslept hours.
                 
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                • 11thIndian

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                  Elon's quote about Model Y FWDs were back when he was saying that it would be on the same platform as the Model 3. As far as I'm concerned, any comments of that vintage are now null and void- this is a whole new ballgame.

                  As far as cost, it seems from Elon's comments during the last earnings call that they have learned a lot about mass production from the Model 3, and are looking to implement those ideas into the Model Y's new platform (with the new wiring harness efficiencies specifically mentioned). The new vehicle will be build in a new factory with full Alien Dreadnaught 1.0 speed and efficiency. That said, Model Y is a bigger and very likely more expensive car than the Model 3. So my guess is that Model Y's will start at US$45K if AWD comes standard like the Model X, or at US$40K if AWD is an option, as it is on lots of cSUVs.
                   
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                  • JBsC6

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                    No way any other tesla model will have those stupid gullwing doors of the model x.

                    I'm sure the model Y will be even less expensive to build than the model 3.

                    Might go fwd as a base model. All electrics with forego our present electrical sub systems for the vehicle and dramatically cut complexity and cost.

                    Considering jaguars recent XE sedan costs around 35 grand base and the sister cuv f pace starts around 42 or 43 grand base.

                    Most average around 60 grand for the cuv and the sedan runs about 50 grand average..

                    I'll assume the same pricing pattern for the tesla model 3 and model y
                     
                  • SwaggerWagon

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                    Quick note: FWD = Front Wheel Drive, no Falcon Wing Door. That acronym was spoken for a long time ago and would be confusing to change it now. We'll have to come up with something else... maybe just FD? Or just Falcon's? Will the Model Y come with Falcon's?

                    I'm thinking it'll be in the $40-43k range. S/CUV always commands a price premium compared to the sedan equivalent. Model S/X are no different, so I don't think 3/Y will be either.

                    And as of this date, we know that the Y will be based on the 3's platform - which honestly, everyone who knows anything about manufacturing already knew, despite Elon saying it would be a seperate. all-new platform. He's a smart guy, not sure why he didn't know they'd share a platform, but, like everyone else did. When it comes time to actually build and ship a product, efficiency and practicality take place over dreams, even if you're the CEO.
                     
                  • 11thIndian

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                    I think Elon was being completely honest. Aspirationally, I'm sure there are loads of things they could do now, on the back of everything they've learned from manufacturing on Model 3.

                    But that said, getting the cSUV to market faster is the much smarter move in the short/medium term. Most of the serious competitors won't be out until 2020-2022. If Tesla can get out ahead of those competitors with a cSUV Model 3 equivalent then I think they're going to do VERY well.

                    @JBsC6 If you're counting on the Model Y to be cheaper than the 3, I have a feeling your going to end up disappointed. Especially now that we know that they will be on the same platform. As mentioned above, cSUVs are always more expensive than the sedan equivalent.
                     
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                    • Badback

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                      The TCFKAMY will cost exactly as much as is in my checking account at the time it is released, +$10k.
                       
                    • JWardell

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                      I don't think front wheel drive makes sense. Added complexity and cost, loss in performance. Of course everyone wants their SUVs to be all-wheel anyway.

                      I bet base it will only be $2500 more than 3, and they both will charge $5000 for all-wheel.
                      That said there is a chance in a few years that base price on both will drop below $35k.
                       
                    • 11thIndian

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                      @JWardell lots of the most common cSUVs don't come with AWD standard. See CR-V or RAV-4.

                      Lots of people want the extra storage and height of an SUV vs a sedan but don't live in areas where they need dual motor for winter conditions or off-roading. I'd say you're right from a production complication perspective, but they might be cutting themselves off from a good chunk of the market if they don't offer a single-motor option.

                      Perhaps the best idea would be to start off with dual-motor production first, then offer single down the road; since most early adopters will prob want dual-motor anyway.
                       
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                      • Michael Russo

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                        :rainbow::rainbow::rainbow:
                         
                      • Michael Russo

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                        :rainbow::rainbow: I'd expect the differential to be at least double that, Josh... o_O
                         
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                        • SSonnentag

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                          It's going to start out at $5000 more than the Model 3, but it won't be available with the small battery, so we have to add $9,000 for the larger battery. This puts the base price at $49,000.

                          Well, that's what my crystal ball says.
                           
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                          • 11thIndian

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                            @SSonnentag I'm gonna push back again and say that we should be careful not to presume those who need an SUV need longer range.

                            SUVs are such a popular class of vehicles because they're able to satisfy a lot of divergent needs in a single body class. Light Sport and Utitity for people who don't want a truck or a jeep. Larger storage and human capacity for small families who don't need or want a minivan. Older people who need a higher wheel base (like my parents) to get in an out easier. Those who live in 4 season climates who want extra clearance and AWD traction control for snow. Lots more I'm sure...

                            While the last of my list presumes a need for AWD, there's nothing to say that a certain class of users might have need for a 215mile range, single-motor cSUV, just like the base Model 3.
                             
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                            • SSonnentag

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                              I can't see that happening. With a higher profile, the small battery pack would yield less than 200 miles of range. I think Tesla will follow the same pattern they did with the X, using the same larger batteries sizes the model S uses, while not making the smaller sizes an option.
                               
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