What do you expect from the base price 3?

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Rob_

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#1
I feel like I see tons of insane optimism about what the base model 3 will give us, and how cheap options will be. The p90D ludicrous costs 48k more than the base Model S. How much do you think the $35k base car will bring to the table, and how quickly do you see prices climbing for popular options? I expect plenty of 3s to leave the lot at $50k or more once autopilot, bigger batteries, and dual motors are on the table.
 

TrevP

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#2
Media focus on the $35K price point is a bit disingenuous if you ask me. Hardly anyone ever buys a car in it's base configuration. I fully expect, given Tesla's options pricing, that most Model 3's will be going out the door closer to $45K, possibly even higher. I also think that people need to temper expectations as to what the Model 3 will have in terms of features. It's very easy to get lost in wishful thinking and end up with visions of sugar plums dancing in ones head :)

The car is not due for production until the end of next year even though the reveal is this month we won't be given a list of options and prices. That will be revealed once the configurator goes live when they're ready to start production. We're going to see the minimum amount of information they're willing to divulge until they're good and ready. Having said that, Tesla sees Autopilot as one of their feathers in their cap and an extremely important technology and they want it to come to the masses. I have a feeling Model 3 will come with the second gen autopilot technology that will be implemented into Model S/X sometime later this year, early next year and come installed in all Model 3s. The software activation will require a one-time payment so that everyone can benefit when they're ready. It's no coincidence that Elon mentions full automomy is 2 years away and Model 3 is pretty much right there.

Since I'm in Toronto Canada, I'm bracing myself for the base price to be $47,000 CAD and options will push the car well into $60K territory. We're fortunate however that our EV rebate just got bumped to a maximum of $14,000 on EVs and Model 3 should qualify for the full rebate given the requirements. The BMW i3 for example qualifies for $13,000 and missed the extra $1000 because it only has 4 seats. This new rebate will really help bring the cost down to a more reasonable level as long as Tesla doesn't go crazy with the pricing up here. We're also hoping we won't have to pay the 6.1% import tariff due to the Japanese-made Panasonic batteries as they will be made in the US.

Time will well but I have good hopes the car will be very nice, well-optioned and "compelling". But I'm not under the impression this car is for the "masses", it's a BMW 3 series competitor. If you set your expectations to what BMW offers then it should temper your pricing expectations.
 

TStarkCAD

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#3
Media focus on the $35K price point is a bit disingenuous if you ask me. Hardly anyone ever buys a car in it's base configuration. I fully expect, given Tesla's options pricing, that most Model 3's will be going out the door closer to $45K, possibly even higher. I also think that people need to temper expectations as to what the Model 3 will have in terms of features. It's very easy to get lost in wishful thinking and end up with visions of sugar plums dancing in ones head :)

The car is not due for production until the end of next year even though the reveal is this month we won't be given a list of options and prices. That will be revealed once the configurator goes live when they're ready to start production. We're going to see the minimum amount of information they're willing to divulge until they're good and ready. Having said that, Tesla sees Autopilot as one of their feathers in their cap and an extremely important technology and they want it to come to the masses. I have a feeling Model 3 will come with the second gen autopilot technology that will be implemented into Model S/X sometime later this year, early next year and come installed in all Model 3s. The software activation will require a one-time payment so that everyone can benefit when they're ready. It's no coincidence that Elon mentions full automomy is 2 years away and Model 3 is pretty much right there.

Since I'm in Toronto Canada, I'm bracing myself for the base price to be $47,000 CAD and options will push the car well into $60K territory. We're fortunate however that our EV rebate just got bumped to a maximum of $14,000 on EVs and Model 3 should qualify for the full rebate given the requirements. The BMW i3 for example qualifies for $13,000 and missed the extra $1000 because it only has 4 seats. This new rebate will really help bring the cost down to a more reasonable level as long as Tesla doesn't go crazy with the pricing up here. We're also hoping we won't have to pay the 6.1% import tariff due to the Japanese-made Panasonic batteries as they will be made in the US.

Time will well but I have good hopes the car will be very nice, well-optioned and "compelling". But I'm not under the impression this car is for the "masses", it's a BMW 3 series competitor. If you set your expectations to what BMW offers then it should temper your pricing expectations.
Hey TrevP - I am based out of Toronto as well, how does one get the $14K rebates?
 

TrevP

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#4
Hey TrevP - I am based out of Toronto as well, how does one get the $14K rebates?
Everything you need to know is on this page.

http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/vehicles/electric/electric-vehicle-incentive-program.shtml

In particular, read the PDF for the requirements. The list of cars will be updated as they go into production. Notably the Bolt and Model 3 are not out yet so we can only go with the listed requirements. If you read them carefully and compare to the list of applicable cars you can deduce the amount Model 3 will get. Pretty straight forward.
 

TStarkCAD

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#5
Everything you need to know is on this page.

http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/vehicles/electric/electric-vehicle-incentive-program.shtml

In particular, read the PDF for the requirements. The list of cars will be updated as they go into production. Notably the Bolt and Model 3 are not out yet so we can only go with the listed requirements. If you read them carefully and compare to the list of applicable cars you can deduce the amount Model 3 will get. Pretty straight forward.
Cool thanks! Looks like there is also $1K Canadian government will give to setup the charging port as well!
 

Van Shrider

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#7
I feel like I see tons of insane optimism about what the base model 3 will give us, and how cheap options will be. The p90D ludicrous costs 48k more than the base Model S. How much do you think the $35k base car will bring to the table, and how quickly do you see prices climbing for popular options? I expect plenty of 3s to leave the lot at $50k or more once autopilot, bigger batteries, and dual motors are on the table.
In a tweet from Elon he mentioned that the expected Average selling price is expected to be USD$42K. I don't think he's saying it as a mean/average price but from the buying trends that he has seen from the Model S and X sales. My best guess is that the fully loaded P60D verses a 50 or 50D will cost USD$55K or even $60K where Ludicrous is involved. (battery sizes just a guess based on the size of the car).

For US buyers the $7500 tax credit will most likely only apply to the first 50000 model 3 buyers, and the more you get, the faster you get it.
 

teslaliving

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#8
Just beware that while the longer term ASP for the 3 may be around $42K US, for the first year or two it will be higher as they'll build the higher optioned cars first. Im guessing it tops out around $70K US. Most of their cars top out at double the minimum price today.
 
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#9
TrevP, firstly thanks for your efforts on the forum thus far.

I feel your pain on the exchange rate as here in Australia the $AUD/$CND is practically 1:1
That being said Australia offers essentially no EV incentives other than an increase in the luxury car tax threshold from $63K to $75K

http://law.ato.gov.au/atolaw/view.htm?docid="LCD/LCTD20151/NAT/ATO/00001"

It could be possible to get a base spec M3 in Australia under the $63K luxury car tax threshold and get no EV benefit/incentive at all :(
 

TrevP

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#10
I'm hopeful based on Elon's tweet that Model 3 options pricing will be less than comparable Model S options. Someone asked if dual motors would cost $5k like on Model S and he said "less".


So maybe we'll have beer pricing on options due to economies of scale but it's prudent to budget based on Model S calculations for now.
 
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#11
For US buyers the $7500 tax credit will most likely only apply to the first 50000 model 3 buyers, and the more you get, the faster you get it.
I'm curious where are you getting your figures from? The credit isn't limited to a particular model and from what I've seen, Tesla has sold roughly 50k cars in the US.
 

TrevP

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#12
I think the numbers are based on the planned Model S/X production between now and when Model 3 arrives then add in the first Model 3 numbers. Since 2012 they've almost doubled production each year. Last year they sold 25K in the US and expect to about double that this year.

The credit is not limited to a single model, it's a cumulative number of cars sold in the US per manufacturer. Once the 200K is reached the credits phase out over several quarters. There's a petition you can sign if you care to throw in your 2 cents, not sure how effective it can be unless you're a multibillion $ oil or pharma corporation with lobbyists on the payroll:

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/increase-ev-tax-credit-cap-manufacturer

I signed it even though I'm a hoser from Canada but anything to help out my American friends ;)
 
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#13
Here is what I have planned for options, using the Model S as an example. Price comes out nearer $60k than $42k or $45k:

Model 3 Model S Option Pricing
35,000 Base
2,500 Leather 2500
0 Sub Zero Weather 1000
1,200 Destination 3000
5,000 D Model (per Musk less than $5k) 5000
3,000 Interior/Lighting 3000
6,500 Extended Battery (60kWh to 80kWh?) varied
2,500 Smart Air Suspension 2500
2,500 Autopilot 2500
0 Panoramic Roof 1500
0 Ultra High Fidelity Sound 2500
1,500 Paint 1500
59,700 Final Options Pricing
 

Reggie

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#14
I'm fully expecting my configuration to be around $45-50K, which is in line to what I currently drive today. Options I would be considering are:

Extended Battery or "D" model (D models usually have better range)
Autopilot features (although this is typically after purchase and, if in the $2K range, I'd likely just pay out of pocket for them)
Roof upgrade
Suspension (if offered)

One other item that I'm considering is the sound upgrade, but I'm a bit torn there. Haven't not heard the sound system in the Model 3, I'm not sure if it's worth the sound upgrade. For all I know, if they have this as an option, the base sound may be all that is needed. But, all in all, I'm expecting around $10K of additional options for myself.
 
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#15
I do not have a Model S but at the dealership they basically said the delta in the sound isn't that noticeable and some people just replace the base speakers with better quality speakers for much less. Obviously not as many speakers, 7 vs 12 I believe.
 

Pinewold

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#16
These numbers are all way to high, Tesla is preparing to compete with BMW 3 Series, Audi A-4, Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt. These all cost from $30k-$50k list with AWD, sunroof and their own versions of autopilot. Discounts of 5k are common. There may be one or two hot models that cost more, but Tesla's best bet is to take those highly profitable models away by making a $45k model with everything to beat fastest competitors.

My bet is bigger battery, awd super charger and autopilot are $45k
 
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#17
So I've been operating under the impression that Tesla really wants the make this "a car for the people." And that they came up with the $35k price because that is the average cost of a new car in the US. Does that seem to be the case? If so, I'm curious to know if the establishment of the $35k base price was established based on the average ICE car "base price" sold in the US or if they arrived at that figure considering final price when purchased (including typical options). If the former...uh oh. If the latter, we might be pleasantly surprised by the final price of our "reasonably tricked out" M3's. I'm thinking this based upon the pretty clear indication that Tesla really does want this to be consumed "by the masses" which would become less likely as the price w/desirable options starts to inch above the $45k-$50k range.
 

Reggie

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#18
I have always operated under the impression that Tesla, which is a premium EV company, is wanting to make a premium EV that targets the US median income market. At present, the median income is just under $52K per year. People in that bracket usually purchases cars under $30K and leases cars up to around $40K. This sort of puts the Tesla in the middle of that. But, that's just my impression. Could be wrong.
 
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#19
I have always operated under the impression that Tesla, which is a premium EV company, is wanting to make a premium EV that targets the US median income market. At present, the median income is just under $52K per year. People in that bracket usually purchases cars under $30K and leases cars up to around $40K. This sort of puts the Tesla in the middle of that. But, that's just my impression. Could be wrong.
You make an excellent point, Reggie. I'm just hoping that the available options will be priced in such a way as to allow us to order a reasonable configuration will staying pretty close to that "optimal" range!
 

Reggie

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#20
That is my hope as well. When I look at other cars that are in the median buyer market, such as the BMW 3-Series, the Cadillac ATS (my car), and the Audi A4, all of which Tesla has said the M3 is going after, my hope is what Musk said during the unveil that the car, at its base, is very well equipped (more so than any other car in its range). The reason is because all of those cars that I mention have starting base prices around $33K (sans the A4 which I believe starts at around $37K), but like you said, have HUGE price swings. It is easily possible to option those cars all the way up to 100K in certain configurations. The nice thing is that when I configure any of those cars (including looking at my current configuration on the ATS), I end up with around $43K. Thus, my target is to keep the M3 at 45K and below, which would be perfect. Also, where I know that Musk will likely be correct is that those cars all have options that would likely be included with the M3 at no additional cost: Options such as the "driver convenience" features (what is the Autopilot Safety Features), Navigation, USB, and Bluetooth (I don't believe you can even get a Tesla without them), LED Headlights/DRL (from the pictures, doesn't look like you'd be able to order a M3 without them). Those options alone add $6-7K to the BMW, Cadillac, and Audi, and would likely be included at the base price of the Tesla.