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Will Tesla meet their Model 3 release dates

Discussion in 'Rumour Mill' started by mservice, Sep 27, 2017.

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  1. mservice

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    This article https://seekingalpha.com/article/4109451-tesla-model-3-production-yet may have some points. It is likely that this has been posted but I haven’t found it yet so I thought I would toss it out for comments. In short Seeking Alpha doesn’t think that Tesla will meet their delivery numbers for the 3.


    Considering the vin numbers are still low it can make one think. The Texas deliver video didn’t, as I could find, identify the cars vin number, however the video did show some questionable issues while reviewing the screen. While I understand being an early adopter things can be buggy but this is a car not a computer. Will the early adopters really be beta testers?


    Now this doesn’t mean that I’m not going to keep my reservation for Jan - Mar ‘18. But it does mean that I will be watching the rollout.


    So, taking the Seeking Alpha article and the Texas video into consideration what do you think?
     
  2. garsh

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    Remember, Seeking Alpha is just a blog where anybody can post an article. EnerTuition doesn’t think that Tesla will meet their delivery numbers
     
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    • Mountainman

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      The article you linked to is the reason Tesla is being protective about Model 3 information. Clearly the UI and software is still at an early beta level. But with their aggressive OTA updates, I am not concerned about currently missing features that can be enabled with a software update (ie rear heating, auto wipers, FM radio, etc). What WOULD concern me is significant manufacturing defects and hardware quality control issues. So far, we have heard nothing but that build quality is excellent in the Model 3.

      My current opinion (which could change) is that it still sucks to be in shortsville.
       
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      • SoFlaModel3

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        Pretend this is Apple ... they keep a very tight leash on their products until they’re ready for prime time.

        I don’t see any concerns here.

        The car is only released to employees so far and still 4-5 weeks away from customers. I’m sure the UI gaps will be resolved and all will be just fine.

        The short interest will be wiped out as the S curve moves into production hell!
         
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        • Sandy

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          Seeking Alpha is known for its anti-Tesla articles written by shorts. Imho it's right up there with the WSJ.
           
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          • smak

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            If VIN 259 was made on 8/23/17, aren't they way ahead of schedule.

            That's 200+ in August and counting.
             
          • eye.surgeon

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            Am I missing something or did we not all watch the public release of the finished model 3 a couple months ago? Seems like the product is still in development. I was hoping those days were behind Tesla. I didn't mind being a beta tester for my Model S but I doubt if Joe Public will be interested in that.
             
          • SoFlaModel3

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            The car itself is finished. The UI needs some buttoning up. While the release was public, the audience was not. All cars to this point have gone to early investors and employees. I can assure you once customer deliveries begin toward the end of October that the car will not be missing functionality listed on the spec sheet.
             
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            • garsh

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              Hardware-wise, it's finished. But I was surprised to see that the software doesn't appear to implement all promised functionality yet.

              But hey, this is still the closest that Tesla has ever been to being on time. ;)
               
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              • danzgator

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                #10 danzgator, Sep 28, 2017
                Last edited: Sep 28, 2017
                Although Tesla says that they put employees at the top of the list and current owners second on the list as a thank you, I'm sure the second (if not the first real reason) for doing this is that they can work out all the bugs with buyers that will be more sympathetic to Tesla still ironing out its issues with the car. I'm sure the UI for cars delivered to employees is half baked. The UI will be 3/4 baked once they start delivering to current owners, and hopefully close to complete when they start delivering to the general public. If they started shipping half baked software to the guy/gal trading in a Corolla, there would be mass hysteria, bad news headlines everywhere, and people claiming they got a lemon and demanding a refund. It would be a complete PR disaster for Tesla. Also, waiting until the UI was fully baked to make any deliveries would delay production or delivery for months, which would not be good for Tesla's financials. I think they made the right decision with their rollout plan.
                 
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                • mkg3

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                  First thing to keep in mind. There are more people who do not post or bother to look for what VIN number is currently being released. What you read herein, is a small sampling of population that either sees or owns TM3. You can see the proof of this by seeing the same posters over and over again (to editors/moderators - sorry, but its true).

                  Often is the case where some people take a data point and run with it. Unfortunately, SA is know for that. Like ALL pundits, opinions are not held accountable so they can say whatever is on their mind without real consequence. All they need to do is to point to some fact - like TX delivery VIN.

                  I would not draw any conclusion to real facts versus what you read on internet.
                   
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                  • garsh

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                    No worries, we know.

                    And be sure to not let any additional owners know about us. The huge influx in members is making this job a bit difficult. We don't need any more (to @TrevP - just kidding! ;))
                     
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                    • pjfw8

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                      And SA has an abysmal accuracy record. The folks predicting the end of the world are more reliable! Read anything else.
                       
                    • mservice

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                      After looking at response this has turned out to be a pretty good discussion. While I know there are anti-Tesla reporters out there it’s still something that needs to looked at as well as the positive. Concerns still hinder Tesla on roll-out and quality control. Like @danzgator pointed out the M3 isn’t being sold as a high priced car for a niche group, but rather the open door to mass middle income EV ownership. If the car comes out with a finicky UI, even if it can be fixed through online pushes, or the quality control of the car itself isn’t up towhat it should be isn’t going to nessarely dissuade readers and posters of this form. But, the middle America auto consumer it very well could be a big deal, as it will be likely that the press will slam Tesla. I really do hope that Tesla will surprise the naysayers when the fun starts by the end of October..
                       
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                      • danzgator

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                        Thanks for classing up my classless "guy/gal trading in a Corolla". "Middle America auto consumer" sounds much better! :D
                         
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                        • Twiglett

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                          #16 Twiglett, Sep 28, 2017
                          Last edited: Sep 28, 2017
                          It really is a valid concern when placed in the context of a regular car from a regular manufacturer.
                          They have to provide a baked product because their only recourse is their crappy dealer network.
                          It feels like the hardware is pretty baked for Model 3 but the software is still developing.
                          So that just leaves the software - and we all know the advantage Tesla has with that. OTA benefits can’t be overstated.
                          [edit]
                          Just corrected spelling. Can I just add that iOS 11 autocorrect has taken a step backwards :)
                           
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                          • mservice

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                            Thanks.. and yours was fine.
                             
                          • Michael Russo

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                            There are a few exceptions to be fair, and objective... ;)
                             
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                            • Thomas Mikl

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                              I think they have some pressure now, as things do leak. So release at least one of the features quickly would do them good. Really do not care if it is FM, auto-wipers or even only the rear seat heating controls, just to let the leak watchers see they are on it and that they can keep their naysayer Campaign on hold for now...
                               
                            • pjfw8

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                              A few!
                               

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